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Statistical's Journal
Statistical's Journal
November 6, 2020

The hillarious irony is that if Trump had encouraged mail in voting ...

he might have won one of these close states. Not sure it would be enough to win him the election but it certainly wouldn't hurt.

Trump is a perpetual loser at everything to include his own re-election. I mean serious what candidate ever has discouraged his own voters from voting early by mail? If you got motivated decided voters weeks before election day then lock those votes in.

November 5, 2020

Trump's margin in PA is under 200K now (195,953) - detailed breakdown

So I was curious not just what the gap is but how fast is is closing and how are these votes breaking for Biden. So I recorded the results 30 minutes ago and then again now. If I get a chance I will update this again like after an hour to see if the trends still hold

30 minutes ago (8:00 PM)
Counted: 6,196,977
Trump's lead: 203,781

Currently in PA (8:30 PM)
Counted: 6,180,761
Trump's lead: 195,953

Counted: +16,216
Trump's lead: -7,828

So they are counting about 32K ballots per hour. Due to the 2.87 : 1 split in votes, Trump's lead is falling by about 15K votes per hour.

The state is reporting 88% of votes counted meaning there are 845,042 ballots to still count. If the rate of counting remains the same and they work 24 hours a day they will finish in about 52 hours. Ballots received after election day will increase that slightly but probably not by much. Once again if the split remains roughly the same then Biden should surpass Trump in about 25 hours.

If (and yes this is a big if) the rest of the ballots break at the same ratio (2.87 : 1) that would be a net pickup for Biden of +407,929 votes. That erases Trump's remaining lead and puts Biden up about 200,000 votes when everything is counted.

November 4, 2020

Maybe I can save you from clicking refresh a billion times (timeline of remaining results)

MI - projected to finish counting ballots on hand by "end of day" today
AZ - Next update approximately 9pm EST today
NV - Next update noon tomorrow (11/5)
PA - "most should be counted by 11/6" (at current rate I show it will take 48-72 hours to count the 1.3M ballots remaining)
GA - "most should be counted by end of day (11/4)" - no word on how long until all counted
NC - mail in ballots still accepted through Nov 12
AK - mail in ballots won't START to be counted until Nov 12

So we might have MI and AZ called this evening if lucky.
NV likely will be called tomorrow.
PA is more in the air as it depends on the rate that the ballots are counted and how quickly Biden closes the gap. I wouldn't expect it to be called before Thursday or possibly Friday.
GA and NC will be a while but I doubt the race comes down to either of them.
AK who knows although it is certainly going for Trump the networks are just being cautious.

All those would be network projections. Final official certified results won't happen for many weeks.

This is provided without warranty and compiled for my own sanity despite not having enough sleep and having too much alcohol so there likely are errors.

November 4, 2020

Prediction markets are saying Biden will win this.

Prediction markets always had lower odds that Biden would win than places like 538. Right before the election it was 65% for Biden now it is 81%.

Of the remaining states the only one predicted to Trump is NC. Biden is >90% chance in NV, AZ, MI, and WI and 61% chance in PA and 57% chance in GA.


I know not everyone likes prediction markets but they tend to be no BS non-partisan odds. If someone thinks the odds are too high or low they can bet against them and in the process move it.

Biden has this. The Senate on the other hand .... not so good.

November 4, 2020

With 86% of the vote counted. Support statehood in for PR is winning 52% to 48%.


This is a simple up or down vote. Statehood yes or no? It looks like it will pass and when it does nobody should ever say the statehood question is unclear in PR.
November 4, 2020

NY Times post explaining why their prediction ("needle") is blue for GA

Why did the Needle turn blue in Georgia? We got enough vote out of the Atlanta area to realize it was going to be really good for Biden. And there's a ton of vote left there.

November 4, 2020

Why are they not calling AZ. Biden is up by 9 with 76% of the vote.

I get it the orange fascist is having a sad but Trump would need to carry the remaining 760K votes by a 70-30 margin to close the gap.

November 4, 2020

So here is my predict with three open states (Biden needs two)

Not all these states have been called but I don't think it is unrealistic at this point.

This isn't guaranteed but is the likely outcome at this point. Yes Biden could pull a turnaround in NC or he could lose NV in an upset but neither is likely. So it comes down to PA, WI and MI (ME-2 & NE-2 doesn't matter). The only good news is Biden only needs 2 of 3 not 3 of 3.

November 4, 2020

So OH looking a lot stronger than expected. Come on Ohio!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ABC doing a county by county comparison and showing Biden outperforming 2016.

November 4, 2020

So FL is dead. Man the polls were way off there.

The only good news is FL has a large cuban hispanic population so doesn't really reflect on what will happen in the rest of the country.

Florida just sucks.

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