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Statistical's Journal
Statistical's Journal
October 12, 2020

A Senate PSA. If DC and PR were already states ...

Garland likely would have been confirmed in 2016 and at a minimum Dumpy would have been forced to pick a moderate instead of Justice Handmaid.

We need to open DC and PR to statehood.

October 9, 2020

Nate (538) puts Trump's chances of winning at just 5% if the election were held today

sarah: Nate, Trump is losing a little ground each day in our forecast if his standing in the polls doesn’t improve, right? Tell us more about that, and what that means for Trump’s ability to close the gap between him and Biden at this point.

natesilver: Trump’s chances are at 15 percent in our forecast now, but my guess is that he’d be at something like 5 percent if the election were held today.

He’d need a VERY large polling error to win if Biden is up 10 points nationally and 7 points or so in the tipping-point states. So most of his comeback chances still stem from being able to turn the race around somehow, and debates are one way to do that … maybe the best way at this stage.

In the podcast on if Trump needs the debates.


Yes yes only election day counts, GOTV, stay focused. I just thought it is interesting to note that Trump's 15% is based on the value of the time left in the race in which Trump could turn things around. His chances as they stand right now if he doesn't improve are even worse.
October 9, 2020

Where do people get the idea that the House can invoke the 25th?

Only Pence can. Well technically Pence and a majority of the cabinet or Pence and a majority of a body designated by Congress in legislation. The singular key person however is Pence.

Nobody else on the planet other than Pence can invoke the 25th (aside from Dumpy doing it voluntarily). If everyone in Washington DC from both parties except Dumpy and Pence was in favor of the 25th then it doesn't happen. I mean if everyone was in favor they could just impeach Trump instead but they still couldn't invoke the 25th without Pence.

People need to stop jumping for extreme conclusions

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, alarmed by President Donald Trump's erratic behavior in recent days, is putting her weight behind a bill to give Congress a role in determining whether the President of the United States must be forced out of office because he's incapable of doing his job.

The move, in response to Trump's conduct in the days after testing positive for the coronavirus, would establish a process to effectively give Congress a say in removing a president from office under the 25th Amendment of the Constitution, which allows for a president to be removed from office if a majority of Cabinet members and the vice president consider him unable to carry out his duties. Section four of the 25th Amendment also says that if a majority of a body established by law, along with the vice president, declare in writing that if the president is disabled and unable to do his job, the vice president immediately becomes the acting president.

The bill, Democrats say, will create that body to help determine the fitness of the president. The proposal, which will be introduced Friday by Pelosi and Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin, will create a body designed to "help ensure effective and uninterrupted leadership in the highest office in the Executive Branch of government," according to Pelosi's office.

The measure stands virtually no chance of becoming law. But it is designed to heighten the attention on Trump's condition after his doctors have provided limited information about his recovery from coronavirus.


Pelosi is keeping Trump's unsuitability for the office in the headlines by creating a headline that the media will report on. She is doing what she can to keep the pressure on but she can't force the 25th.
October 8, 2020

So one thing is very obvious ...

... all future debates must have a mute button on the mics.

October 7, 2020

If you need something to smile about ... Freepers are losing their shit over the Rasmussen reports.

They consider all other polls to be fake but usually tout Rasmussen as "telling the truth" except now it shows Biden up 12. A tiny minority is calling it for what it is; bad news and can't be overcome by electoral college. The rests are split between either it is fake or it doesn't matter that Biden could win by 20 pts and Dumpy will still win the electoral college.

October 5, 2020

Even Donald Jr thinks his dad is acting insane. Don't let anyone gaslight you this isn't fine.

When a brain dead sociopath like Jr knows something is wrong something is very very wrong.

According to sources, Don Jr. has told friends that he tried lobbying Ivanka Trump, Eric Trump, and Jared Kushner to convince the president that he needs to stop acting unstable. “Don Jr. has said he wants to stage an intervention, but Jared and Ivanka keep telling Trump how great he’s doing,” a source said. Don Jr. is said to be reluctant to confront his father alone. “Don said, ‘I’m not going to be the only one to tell him he’s acting crazy,’” the source added.

October 5, 2020

So the polls are starting to move. WOOT WOOT

Usually I don't care much about day to day polls (up one, down two) because the margin of error means a lot of that is just sampling noise. Especially if one poll goes up 1 and another one goes down 2 on the same day. You probably aren't looking at anything real. Even when there is zero actual change in preference among voters the polls will move around a bit day to day.

However since the debate the polls have been improving pretty consistently for Biden. I am not sure if it is the debate, Trump getting sick, Trump acting insane while sick, or all of the above but it IS having an effect. Prior to the debate, nationally Biden was up around 6 to 7 pts. There were outliers both high and low but that is where the averages were.

Since the debate the poll have been:
Ipsos - Biden +10
YouGov - Biden +8
U.S.C. Dornsife - Biden +11
NBC News/The Wall Street Journal - Biden +14
The Hill/HarrisX - Biden +7
U.S.C. Dornsife - Biden +11 (a second one)

Since most of the aggregate sites keep polls from the past couple weeks the averages are around +8 but that is up from around +6 prior to the debate. The averages are slowly inching up as older polls fall off. The other good news is in most averages Biden is now over the magic 50% mark. It also is not just Biden picking up "undecideds" either, Trump has pretty consistently lost around 2 points in most polls (outliers aside).

Yeah yeah all the standard disclaimers apply: only election day matters, GOTV, don't take your eye off the prize, etc, etc. It is still good news.

October 4, 2020

Come on Pence grow a pair and invoke the 25th. You can be President if only for a bit.

Remember God said you were going to be President maybe this is what he meant.

October 4, 2020

Trump's infection is having an impact on the perception of the virus

In the wake of Trump's diagnosis, the survey also found an increasing number of Americans concerned that they, or someone they know, will be infected with the virus. Eighty-one percent are either very or somewhat concerned about contracting COVID-19, compared to 72% two weeks ago. The percentage of "very concerned" respondents rose 8 percentage points, from 29% to 37%.

The overall jump can be almost entirely attributed to Republicans, whose net concern increased 18 points (52% to 70%), and independents, whose concern increased 13 points (69% to 82%). Democrats held steady at 86%.

That is encouraging. It shows reality can occasionally reach Republicans at least some of them.

In two separate questions, an identical 72% said that Trump did not take the "risk of contracting the virus seriously enough," nor "the appropriate precautions when it came to his personal health." The poll was conducted by Ipsos in partnership with ABC News using Ipsos' Knowledge Panel on Friday and Saturday, following Trump's positive test early Friday morning.

October 2, 2020

Found COVID false negative testing information (relates to Biden test results)

"Over the 4 days of infection before the typical time of symptom onset (day 5), the probability of a false-negative result in an infected person decreases from 100% (95% CI, 100% to 100%) on day 1 to 67% (CI, 27% to 94%) on day 4. On the day of symptom onset, the median false-negative rate was 38% (CI, 18% to 65%). This decreased to 20% (CI, 12% to 30%) on day 8 (3 days after symptom onset) then began to increase again, from 21% (CI, 13% to 31%) on day 9 to 66% (CI, 54% to 77%) on day 21."

"Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction–Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure"

If Biden was exposed on Tuesday then day 4 would be Saturday evening but he gets tested in the morning so say Sunday morning. The expected median false negative rates would be 67% on Sunday, 38% on Monday, and falling to 20% by Thursday.

So if Biden doesn't develop symptoms or test positive by Monday he likely (80%+) doesn't have the disease. Either he never got infected or his body killed off any small viral load before it could replicate. By next Wednesday it is almost guaranteed (>99%) he doesn't have the disease if still symptom free with all negative tests.

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