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Member since: Tue Nov 6, 2007, 09:55 AM
Number of posts: 1,251

Journal Archives

Early Voting Drawing Crowds in Several States Maddow Blog (Heavy)

Rachel Maddow MSNBC ‏@maddow
Photos of early voting this weekend: http://is.gd/72SfHb Shouldn't be this hard. We need more early voting days, hours, places.


New Poll Shows President Obama ahead or Tied in All Swing States

PPP Poll
Political Wire October 28

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Florida: Romney 47%, Obama 47% (Pharos)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Cincinnati Enquirer)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)

Minnesota: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (Minneapolis Star Tribune)

New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Pharos)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Priorities USA Action)


Nate Silver Update for October 28

October 28, 2012, 2:50 PM

Oct. 27: Minnesota Moonlights as Swing State, but Ohio and Virginia Are More Crucial
With the election so close, Saturday is no longer a day of rest for pollsters. Eight polls were released from potentially competitive states:

See Source for chart and his Post:



Time Poll :President Obama Up 5 in Ohio

By EMILY SCHULTHEIS | 10/24/12 4:15 PM EDT

Via Time magazine's new poll out just now, the latest numbers out of Ohio show President Obama holding onto his lead there:

Counting both Ohioans who say they will head to the polls on November 6, and those who have already cast a ballot, Obama holds a 49% to 44% lead over Romney in a survey taken Monday and Tuesday night.

The pollís margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The poll makes clear that there are really two races underway in Ohio. On one hand, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted but who say they intend to, with 45% of respondents supporting the President and 45% preferring his Republican challenger.

But Obama has clearly received a boost from Ohioís early voting period, which began on Oct. 2 and runs through November 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.

Alex and I wrote last week about Obama's durable lead in Ohio, and these numbers a week later are pretty consistent with what we've seen in the last couple of weeks there.


Inside Early Vote Numbers NC: Update by Jeremy Bird

Inside the early vote numbers: North Carolina
By Jeremy Bird, National Field Director on October 28, 2012


(Note Early registration and Early Vote)

Nate Silver

Five Thirty Eight
October 27, 2012, 5:16 PM

October 26 State Poll Averages Usually call Election Right

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. The intuition behind this ought to be very simple: Mr. Obama is maintaining leads in the polls in Ohio and other states that are sufficient for him to win 270 electoral votes.

Friday featured a large volume of swing state polling, including three polls of Ohio, each of which showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins ranging from two to four percentage points.


A retweet said@fivethirtyeight, a very good poker player, doubles down

Rattner to Ohio for President Obama

Burns and Haberman
By MAGGIE HABERMAN | 10/27/12 8:40 PM EDT

This should be interesting.

Former "car czar" Steve Rattner is heading to Ohio tomorrow as a surrogate for President Obama, a source familiar with the trip said.
The source didn't immediately know the specifics of where in the state Rattner, who is now a frequent MSNBC commentator, will be and at which events.

But it underscores the emphasis the campaign is placing on the auto bailout.
Obama campaign aides did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
* This post has been updated



Interactive Map of Newspaper Endorsements from Across the Nation


Ohio is not a Toss Up Nate Silver

October 27, 2012
Taegan Goddard's Politcal Wire

Ohio Is Not a Toss Up
Nate Silver looks at the polling average in Ohio -- made up of roughly a dozen polling firms who have surveyed the state over the past 10 days -- and notes it shows President Obama with a 2.4 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.

"There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich... It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio's central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election."


New Poll shows President Obama with Small Lead NC

News Observer Blog
Submitted by robchristensen on 2012-10-26 13:05

A new poll by a Democratic leaning group shows President Barack Obama up 47-43 over Republican Mitt Romney in North Carolina.
The survey was conducted by Grove Insight Oct. 23-24. It was commissioned by Project New America, a Colorado based group.
It is the third poll released this week that shows North Carolina is still up for grabs. A survey commissioned by the Civitas Institute found Romney leading Obama by 48-47 percent margin. A poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic leaning firm found the race in the state tied at 48.

The Grove Insight survey found that Obama's growing lead can be attributed to a shift to him by women voters.
The poll surveyed 500 likely voters using live interviewers and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

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