They show that altho Hill's numbers had suffered from Comey AND Stein support, she was still ahead almost across the board.
If she had been hurt badly, or momentum was clearly against her, many would have known she might not win. NATE SILVER PROJECTED THAT SHE'D WIN, based on the polls and other data.
Well, I can't figure out how to post it. It's in a spreadsheet. Here's a cut and paste, though. Note that of the 11 polls where there is a prior poll,
she lost a bit in 5 of them, and she stayed the same or increased her numbers in 5 of them, and for another (Clinton +2) there was no prior poll. This was after the 10/29 Comey surprise, AND the push for Jill Stein AND she didn't do that well in their last debate. Still, shortly before the election, Clinton was
leading in almost all polls. (Altho it was w/in MOE, the odds her LOSING because of a MOE in all those states where she lost is pretty small. That has never happened before, since polling began. This was so striking that I wondered on forums whether Russia had interfered, because it made NO SENSE. And now we know that Russia did hack into election systems.
Last polls before the election: are
followed by the prior poll by same pollster:
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
11/8 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 45, Johnson 8, Stein 2
Trump +2
****
10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +3
11/8 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 42
Clinton +1
****
10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 45, Trump 42 Clinton +3
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 3, Stein 2
Clinton +4
****
10/26 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 3 Clinton +3
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 1
Clinton +4
****10/28
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2
Clinton +2
****
10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 45, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Tie
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44
Clinton +4
****
10/26 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 49, Trump 44 Clinton +5
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 49, Trump 46
Clinton +3
****
10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 50, Trump 45 Clinton +5
11/7 Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Trump 45, Clinton 46, Johnson 4, Stein 0
Clinton +1
****
10/27 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Clinton 46, Trump 45, Johnson 3, Stein 1 Clinton +1
11/5 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Morning Call Clinton 44, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 2
Clinton +4
****
10/29 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Morning Call Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 8, Stein 2 Clinton +6
11/5 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Clinton 47, Trump 45, Johnson 2, Stein 2
Clinton +2
****
(no prior poll)
10/31 Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 2
Clinton +6
****
10/28 Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 48, Trump 42, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +6
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/#
Comey should not have done what he did. Who knows what he was thinking, or why he did it. But he did not cost her the election. He contributed to it, probably. But Jill Stein did her as much damage, and now we know that Russia DID hack election systems.