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jberryhill

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Delaware
Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2006, 08:14 PM
Number of posts: 46,248

Journal Archives

The Simplest Observation To Make About The "Hillary is really sick" Thing In General


The "Hillary is really sick" thing is a good one because it exploits natural observation bias. If Hillary speaks for an hour, and doesn't cough or clear her throat, then it's not as if anyone notices something that didn't happen. But with the "Hillary is really sick" thing, then every cough, scratch or twitch is an occasion for "Aha! See!"

Now, let's look at what I call "the reality staring you in the face."

The reality staring you in the face is that both candidates are of relatively advanced age. I'm sure that both of them have many things in common with everyone else of relatively advanced age. However the plain fact staring you in the face is that both of them (and to varying degrees, yes) have been engaged for a solid year in physical activity that is more challenging that anything that goes on in the Oval Office in the first place.

They have been giving standing speeches for hours, traveling ungodly distances, keeping ungodly hours, walking through state fairs, hotel hallways and convention centers, waving, smiling, parading, and doing far more rigorous and challenging things than (1) Waking up in the East Wing of the White House, and (2) Going to sit at a desk in the West Wing of the White House.

You can argue all you want to about physical fitness, but it is blitheringly obvious that what you can see, with your own two eyes for a solid year now, are no significant physical impairments.

What does anyone thing they are doing? Auditioning for Cirque du Soleil? It is plainly apparent that both candidates have physical fitness appropriate to the demands of the actual job involved - which is less physically demanding than the job that both of them have right now.

Rather than to go down ratholes with your "did you hear this" friends, it may be more helpful to point out that simple apparent fact - what have they been doing for the last year, and continue to do, compared to anything they would be doing in office, from a purely physical point of view.

Surprisingly well done sarcasm from Manafort

In an article on the campaign re-shuffling:

"Manafort, in a statement, said that he is sure the additions will 'undoubtedly help take the campaign to new levels of success.'"

I gotta give Moscow Mannie credit for that extremely dry comment, because nobody in the campaign is likely to detect the what is implied by "new levels of success".

But, sure, going from 40% down to 20% is certainly going to be a "new level of success" for them.

He didn't say they were going to succeed or be successful, but that they would hit a "new level of success".

I don't care who you are, that's a pretty funny thing for him to say.

Why are Jamaicans so fast?


This article explains that, contrary to armchair anthropologists, the answer is a more interesting story....

https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-secret-of-jamaicas-runners.amp.html

How do Jamaicans do it? It’s not because of genetics, as some claim. A vast majority of Jamaicans’ ancestors are from West Africa, which has relatively few outstanding sprinters. Nor can genetics explain why Jamaicans outperform other blacks in the Americas, especially in Brazil, which has 36 times as many of them.

Ask a Jamaican like me (I was born and raised there), and we’ll give you a very different answer: Champs. Officially called the Inter-Secondary Schools Sports Association Boys and Girls Athletics Championship, Champs is an annual competition attended by 30,000 wildly enthusiastic fans. Jamaica is perhaps the only country in the world where a track and field meet is the premier sporting event.

But it’s not just Champs. The competition is one part of a broader framework — track and field is huge at every educational level, with periodic regional meets drawing athletes of all ages from the most remote rural areas. So the real question is, why is Jamaica nuts for track?

...

The answer is complex and incomplete. But it might lie in a deeper truth about the island. Political and economic successes are often top-down, relying on leadership that adapts and manages appropriate institutions that also benefit the non-elite. But things like health reform and sports success — and the reggae industry, for that matter — are largely bottom-up. Jamaica is yet to acquire the leadership for national development it deserves. But it has no lack of talent, energy and self-reliance — qualities as evident in health statistics as they are on the track.

President Trump should get a 25th Amendment, Section 4 cabinet


This is the only hope, if he is elected:

Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

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That's the "president gone crazy" safety valve.

Source: Trump kept asking about Area 51 during classified briefing

I'll bet his questions are awesome. "So, you tell me. Why did Obama present a clearly-forged birth certificate? Didn't he lose his citizenship when his mother remarried and moved to Indonesia?"

And so they explain it to him and he keeps saying, "That's not what my sources say!"

It's gotta be like telling Palin the Queen does not run England, or why there are two Koreas."

Roadside view of the TdF

This was at a point just uphill from the switchback where Froome fell on Stage 19.



The video is awful, and I didn't catch Rui Costa leading, since I don't really like taking video of something that I'm watching (your memory then becomes one of taking the video instead of experiencing the moment). But, I did turn the phone on and point it, and managed to catch a chunk of the Caravane de Publicite followed by most of the field.

Obviously, the side of the road is no place to be if you want to actually watch the race, so it's a good idea to become friendly with the camper-car folks, be near a bar, or have good streaming.

HOWEVER, if you like to spend an afternoon having a picnic in a random picturesque spot in the Alps or the countryside with some comfy folding chairs, a couple of bottles of wine along with some bread, cheese, pate and snacks and, oh yeah eventually a crazy parade and a bike race will come by, then the TdF provides a great excuse to go do that. Plus, July is festival season in many of the towns throughout France, so there is always a party going on somewhere.

The experience is a lot like that scene in Close Encounters of the Third Kind, where a bunch of people gather on the side of the road for reasons they can't fully explain or understand, and then the alien ships show up.

Trump proud of restraint shown by Nazis in Sacramento


This just in from Der Trumpenführertwitter:


"Very proud of how my supporters acted today in #Sacramento! We have to be tough! We have to take our country back! #MakeAmericaGreatAgain!"

Northern Ireland voted Remain... It's not just Scotland

"BREAKING: Sinn Fein says "British government has forfeited any mandate to represent economic or political interests of people in N Ireland"

Florida Rule 4-7.18 for Legal Practice

Florida has an interestingly detailed rule on the subject of lawyers attempting to contact prospective clients:

Rule 4-7.18, in general, addresses the subject of "Communications With Prospective Clients"

(b) Written Communication.

(1) A lawyer may not send, or knowingly permit to be sent, on the lawyer's behalf or on behalf of the lawyer's firm or partner, an associate, or any other lawyer affiliated with the lawyer or the lawyer's firm, a written communication directly or indirectly to a prospective client for the purpose of obtaining professional employment if:

(A) the written communication concerns an action for personal injury or wrongful death or otherwise relates to an accident or disaster involving the person to whom the communication is addressed or a relative of that person, unless the accident or disaster occurred more than 30 days prior to the mailing of the communication;

------

What this means is that if something happens to you while you are at, say, a resort in Florida and some kind of misfortune befalls you, then the resort can, while attending to your needs as you stay at the resort and all of your communications with resort staff are recorded, have THEIR lawyers meet with you and communicate with you for a full month before any other Florida lawyer may attempt to contact you. Of course, if you are vacationing there, your odds of knowing a Florida lawyer whom you might contact, are approximately zero.

Disney Ignored Complaints About Guests Feeding Alligators

One of the problems with "there have been lots of visitors and no problems" to the 28 year old Grand Floridian resort at Disney is that even if a facility has been open for a long time, conditions can change over time.

Apparently, Disney very recently opened a set of bungalows on piles in the water, and guests have been feeding alligators from their decks. Employees were aware of this practice, but since the bungalows go for $2000 a night, it's not as if they are going to reprimand those guests for causing the alligators to associate humans with food:


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3645504/Disney-ignored-employees-complaints-guests-2-000-night-bungalows-feeding-alligators.html

The problem has allegedly been exacerbated by the opening of the new $2,000-a-night Bora Bora Bungalows, a an expensive collection of private rooms situated directly on the Seven Seas Lagoon - just across from the beach where Lane was snatched.

The bungalows have private porches and guests apparently feed the alligators as they float past.

'Disney has known about the problem of guests feeding the alligators well-prior to the opening of the bungalows,' said an insider. 'With the opening of the bungalows, it brought the guests that much closer to wildlife. Or, the wildlife that much closer to the guests.'

A few employees said they had complained about the bungalow guests feeding the alligators, but alleged that park officials may have been hesitant to reprimand guests staying in $2,000-a-night suites
.

'Disney knew these alligators had become desensitized to humans, as they had begun to associate guests with food, and did not act in a proactive manner,' the insider added.

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A change in conditions, about which they were aware, caused a substantially new and different risk relative to what had previously been the norm.



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