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Bernardo de La Paz

Bernardo de La Paz's Journal
Bernardo de La Paz's Journal
December 23, 2022

Somehow my thoughts don't turn to violence when contemplating Reich Wing shills

The Reich Wing shills are part of reality and I find there is too much violence in reality.

To cartoonize them as targets for violence is to take them out of reality. Despite the strange satisfaction that violence gives some people, trivializing them in that way is just as much a non-solution as resorting to violence.

December 20, 2022

I think the opposite. I think they are stonkered

They know their idol did bad stuff and they know he's going to get his butt kicked but good.

They just don't know how bad or about what or who else is tied up in it (though thinking people have a pretty good idea). So they don't know just how much to defend or if it is getting to the point of abandoning tRump like some have started to do.

They are also starting to realize 1) They've been taken, 2) He is still grifting them, 3) He's not so conservative (Log Cabin Repubs at Merd-a-Lardo, 4) He' incompetent (lousy election picks), and more.

Probably more than one group are planning some violent action, but I do not think there will be a mass uprising on behalf of orange criminals. There may be some deaths and tragedies and suffering as a result, but it is not going to ignite a "race war" or an uncivil "Civil War II" or reinstate tRump or overthrow the Deep State or Big Tech or the Gazpacho Police.

December 14, 2022

January will be exceptionally bumpy

* There could be orange indictments. I'd rate likelihood as on up side of moderate, but not by much. If not January then each successive month becomes more likely. Could be Georgia or Special Counsel or both. But not December because, unlike Mollusk, even SCs are aware of sensitivity about firing or otherwise disturbing the Holiday season. Indict before Christmas? No, it goes "Twas the night before Christmas".

* December test runs at electric infrastructure may presage January waves.

* Could be big J6 cracks or breaks or bus accidents. RepubliQon members of the House could be indicted or subpoenaed. This months Meadows comms release signals big trouble has arrived at Donald's office doorstep and his domestic hearth doorstep (Meadows and Junior).

* Ukraine winter offensive will start or already be underway. It's been comparatively stable for a few weeks now. Russia may surprise with a re-offensive first, but I doubt it.

* Winter European energy crunch will be biting and there will be lots of unhappy people there.

* New Congress with New Ingredient: energized gungho nutzoid RepubliQonners who think they have the wind in their sails and the voice of the people behind them. They will overplay their hand more than once.

* January often sets the tone in the stock markets for the year.

* China will be immersed in a full bore pandemic because a) it is ramping up already, b) little natural immunity due to zero-Covid, c) Chinese vaccines are lousy until you have 3 shots and then they compare, d) little uptake of vaccination so far, e) just starting a big push to vaccinate the elderly. Plus protests have shown they can have effects. But also the Chinese Security Apparatus has begun a clampdown on people involved in the covid protests. That will have ripple effects too.

There is peril in every item listed, but I am not particularly alarmed overall. But it will be bumpy.

On the other hand ... stabilizing factors include:

* calming inflation, soft landing avoiding rough recession looking more likely.

* gas prices down.

* Democratic Senate, by a hair thin margin. Steady Democratic hands in the White House.

That's all I can think of at the moment.

December 7, 2022

Implicit Russia propaganda inside headline: Only Russia can attack across border

Ukraine can only defend inside its borders, is the implicit line.

In reality, Ukraine has been extraordinarily disciplined in mounting only a few pinpoint attacks over the border.

In my view, that has the purpose of weakening Putin's support in Russia by taking away from him the internal propaganda weapon of "The Motherland is being attacked! Sacrifices will be made!".

I think the restraint has been effective by limiting his hand, for example, not calling for a full mobilization. Meantime, Ukraine, as the defender, has a full mobilization.

December 7, 2022

The flip is that the war will exacerbate domestic problems and be identified as the cause

Russians know it is more than just a "special operation".
They know it is Putin's war.
Putin owns the last 22 years.

Potemkin regimes last only as long as the frontages stay up and only as long as nobody goes behind them to look. The exact path whereby one of many cracks is exploited and the regime tumbles is unknowable and problematic. But Putin's regime will fall before long. He can't win his war. He is like a tank in mud, digging in deeper spinning its treads, but still firing its gun here and there.

The frontages are crumbling because Russians are noticing losses of rights, diminished incomes, lack of Western products, and a military that has been revealed to be weak and uncaring for conscripts.

Granted, they have a very restricted main stream media giving them a very narrow propaganda view, but they also have smart phones.

As in all authoritarian countries, there is a social contract. The people say "Let me get on with living and making a living and I'll not bother myself about whatever crackdowns you feel you need to do." But Putin has broken it, and Russians know who broke it.

December 5, 2022

Not quite. Musk is a mid-info guy. Fiona Hill is right about Musk being manipulable

And at the heart of her interview article, she has very good geopolitical analysis.

I think Putin web brigades put out lots of hooks to hang hats on. Musk saw that one. And it surely was "bruited about" in his circles (she mentions some conference).

The brigades plant lots of memes and brief posts about this and that, a hundred different propaganda points. Like "Russia has had Ukraine for a thousand years", which is provably false. Moscow was a village at most, a thousand years ago, while Ukraine was building magnificent gilded monasteries. But it doesn't matter. It's a hook.

We all hear about low info types (or voters) as a trope of easily swayed people. Presumably (but not completely true) DU posters are high info types.

Musk is a mid-info guy. (New concept, hunh?)

He's mid-info because he is quite smart, has some world experience, and is very busy. He's smart, so he absorbs a lot of info quickly. He gets tweeted and retweeted all kinds of political stuff (definitely, or why buy Twitter?) but he is so busy that he only has a limited amount of time for it. So if his own Twitter feed and other sources he follows are feeding him stuff of various kinds, they will adapt and feed him what he spends time on. So that narrows his own focus. Not as broad as high-info types, not as well-considered.

He's a victim of his own device, like too many of us.

He's got just enough hubris to over-believe in his abilities to sort through information and get to the kernel. And he has various kinds of real world experience before erecting his hecta-giga-naire bubble. Enough so that he thinks he knows which end is up, always. But not the kinds or enough for true wisdom, in my opinion. He's always been well-to-do, never wondered where rent was going to come from.

So his feed gives him the "Crimean Water Supply" meme, in the long-standing sense of a small or tiny bundle of concepts and factoids represented by a tag.

So he retweets or regurgitates it, to buttress his self-image as a collosus astride the globe, making peace. But it could have been any of a hundred bundles he might have picked up. It was one he picked up.

I thing the Egoloon has secretly sincere plans for a minor amount of world domination, sincere because he thinks "I alone can fix this" (seems like orange words). Saviour complex.

All of the above means that Musk is much more manipulable than he realizes. Fiona Hill is right about that.

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Member since: Fri Jul 16, 2004, 10:36 PM
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About Bernardo de La Paz

Canadian who lived for many years in Northern California and left a bit of my heart there. (note to self: https: //images.dailykos.com/images/1043361/original/2016.09.19_sunflowers_header.jpg . https://i.imgur.com/1VKgdmc.jpeg)

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