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Bernardo de La Paz

Bernardo de La Paz's Journal
Bernardo de La Paz's Journal
June 25, 2017

As a team, Democrats are still much better than the Republicons. 6 years, 60 votes & they still cant

Six years, 60 votes, and they still can't agree on and pass a coherent health care bill. That's not even considering trying to pass a health care bill that the public will like.

tRump has a team of three: he, himself, and him.

The tRump gang is not much of a team. They are so clueless about governing that Ivanka despairs about the nastiness in Washington and Jared thinks he can solve the 2,500 year old MidEast conundrum by showing up in preppy clothing. They are so amateurish and arrogant they don't even ask for advice from previous Secretaries of State like Kerry and Hillary did.

Steve Bannon is a tool of the Mercers and beholden to his own racist fantasies about minimal government. He thinks he can tear it down from within and rebuild it as pre-Theodore-Roosevelt robber baron white capitalist paradise. He does have some help from the cabinet.

Republican Trump does not have any Republicons on his team. The Party is more & more abandoning him.

Reince Priebus is the only professional there and therefore is the one who says the least. He is there to cover the Republicon Party's collusion from within the WH so that he can cover his ass. He's the most team player inside and outside the WH of all the Republicons.

Ryan can't control his caucus. He's no good as a coach or as a captain or at inspiring. His caucus are running around like mice with their tails chopped off. FOUR CLOSE SHAVES in special elections have got them scared shitless about 2018.

McCONnell has more than Ryan at stake in the Russia collusion treason and coverup. So he's not much of a team player.

June 24, 2017

This is supported by an interesting study of aggregated search data correlated with voting

What Google Searches Reveal about the Human Psyche

Transcript and you can hear the segment. I found some more links, posted at the end of the excerpts.


excerpts of transcript:

my next guest says you shouldn't let social media make you feel bad about your life. In fact he has studied millions of Google searches and gained some surprising insights into people's real lives. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is a former Google data scientist. He's a contributing op ed writer for The New York Times and he's the author of Everybody Lies: Big Data New Data And What The Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are. And Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is joining us from Atlanta, Georgia. Hello.


AMT: Is this information that Google has that you got or did you go on Google and figure it out?

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: This is data that they aggregate the search data and they give it to searchers.

AMT: Okay. So what did you learn about racism in the U.S. by examining Internet searches?

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: Yes. So there is a disturbing element to some of this research. When people are lying, one of the ways people lie is they make themselves look better and they don't admit their racist tendencies. So the comparison on Google is depressing even horrifying, the frequency with which Americans make racist searches, are predominantly looking for jokes mocking African-Americans. And these searches predict very very strongly various political behaviors voting patterns.

AMT: You can make the connection?

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: Yeah. So for example places that made these searches in highest numbers, there were most likely to make racist searches where there is almost perfect relationship between the volume of these searches and support for Donald Trump in the Republican primary. So it's really clear in this data that racism played a huge role in Trump's rise even if people wouldn't admit that.

AMT: And you also looked at what people were searching for right after Barack Obama was elected in 2008. What did you find?

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: Yes. I mean another one where people you know on TV or in everyday conversation, people are saying whatever they thought of Obama's policies or positions that it was moving that we had an African-American president. But you see it the same period that searches for really really racially charged jokes mocking African-Americans were rising to their highest levels yet. And one in 100 searches on the night that Obama was elected with the word Obama also included the N word or KKK. So really a very very different in the privacy of their own homes, Americans were reacting to this event much differently than they were publicly proclaiming they were reacting.

AMT: And that was rather than using the phraseology like first black president or the like celebratory phrase.

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: Exactly. More people are making more searches kind of disturbed by having an African-American president than excited about having an African-American president.

AMT: And so let's get back to what you said about the election of Donald Trump and what you learned about who voted for him. Tell me a little bit more of what you saw.

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: Well, I think one thing that happened is you see how people responded when Obama was president. So the racist searches people were also searching for and eventually joining a website called Stormfront which is a white nationalist website. And you see kind of a direct relationship that these people who were antagonized by Obama's election and motivated to join these white nationalist websites or make racist searches then put Trump over the edge in the Republican primary.

AMT: And how do you know that you're making the right conclusion with that data?

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: Well, you have to be definitely careful when you're using statistics and data but there are a lot of tools that data scientists have to control for other variables. You can see is there something else about these areas that explain the relationship? Is it because these areas have more elderly people, or more people with fewer years of education or more people own guns or more people who attend church? And you control for all these variables and nothing explains the result. The only thing that really explains the result is the racism.

AMT: You also looked at clues before the election on voter turnout for Hillary Clinton, that are may be down.

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: Yes exactly. So if you ask people in a survey: “Are you going to vote in an election?”, just about everybody says yes but then only about 55 percent of Americans actually turn out to vote. So you can't really know from a survey who is going to be in the 55 percent who vote and who is going to be in the 45 percent who don't vote. But you can see on Google. People make searches in the weeks leading up to Election Day. They search for how to vote or where to vote or polling places, and these searches predict very very strongly how high turnout will be. And what we saw in this previous election, in the 2016 election, is that in cities with large African-American populations were 90 or 95 percent of the population is black, there was a large drop in searches for voting information, searches for how to vote or where to vote. So it was very clear from the search data that black turnout was going to be substantially down compared to previous elections. And since African-Americans support Democrats 85 or 90 percent of the time, this was a terrible sign for Hillary Clinton and one of the reasons she did so much worse than polls predicted.

AMT: Because that that did carry out during the election, right?

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: Exactly. The black turnout was way down.

AMT: If her people had been looking at the data you were looking at they would have seen that coming.

SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ: They would have seen that coming and maybe put more energy into getting black turnout up.



NPR Transcript of another interview:

Persuasive proof that America is full of racist and selfish people - Vox
Jun 13, 2017 - “Google is a digital truth serum,” Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, author of ... that suggested Trump was far more serious than many supposed.

Vox Calls Americans 'Racist' Over Google Searches | The Daily Caller {Right Wing reaction}
Jun 13, 2017 - Stephens-Davidowitz research shows “searches containing racist ... and equates the search data as “clues” Trump was a “serious” contender.
June 22, 2017

Concern trolling is one technique. Pairwise scuffling is another. Propagating fake new too.

Look for DU members with high post rates after joining in 2016 from June leading up to the election and joining after Trump's Inauguration. Caution: most members with such characteristics are good solid Democrats / progressives / liberals. We can be suspicious, but it takes a lot to make a case to pass MIRT scrutiny.

Concern trolling is where a member / bot / tweeter / FBer will say something like "I worry that Pelosi is ineffective after four losses in a row. Republicans like having her around to kick around." (Again, caution, well-meaning members might sincerely make a statement like that.)

Pairwise scuffling is where two bots gin up an argument in an effort to draw in other members and drive wedges between them. It is divisive and destablizing and it uses up time and energy members / tweeters / FBers could use to get real news out and organize resistance.

Propagating fake news (in many guises some not so obvious) uses up members time and energy knocking it down and arguing about it.

There are undoubtedly many other techniques. It would be interesting to see a compendium of them. Here's an ancient one I bookmarked from 2002: http://www.hyphenologist.co.uk/killfile/anti_troll_faq.htm

Finding some:

June 18, 2017

Refusing to use sexist speech that bashes women is an EASY way to bring MORE JUSTICE.

Do you think we will ever see Mr. Harriot call America a gigolo or rent-boy?

Sure, he didn't INTEND to bash women, but if he truly is interested in EQUALITY and JUSTICE he will purge his speech and thought of figures and patterns that HAVE THE EFFECT OF BASHING WOMEN.

Now, if not sooner. It's past due.

Walking the walk of making social justice happen requires self-discipline.

He can do it, if he wants to.

June 9, 2017

Good. Keep tying them to Republican President Trump. It's working. They own him.

Republican President tRump is the culmination of 40 years of Republicon propaganda, stupefaction, gerrymandering, framing the debate, polarization, and fake news.

They ran 17 candidates and they chose him.

They had numerous chances to condemn him. They endorsed him.

Democrats predicted this disaster if he was elected. Republicons could see it too but kept quiet and prayed while they colluded with the Russians to steal the Electoral College.

They own him. They must pay in 2018 by losing seats.

The only way to redeem the Republicon brand now is to impeach both tRump & Pence simultaneously and use Article II, Clause 6 to restore the presidency to the Majority Vote winner, Hillary Clinton. Unlikely, but really the only way.

June 5, 2017

Actually, there are at least three.

They all depend on the Republicons realizing just how toxic Trump is becoming for 2018 and 2020. This will be advanced by Democrats unifying the Trump and Republican brands, which is right as it should be. He is the Republican President Trump and they are Trump's Republican Party.

When Republican Pres. Trump becomes toxic enough, the three remedies are:

1) Impeachment

2) The Republican controlled Congress can declare Republican Pres. Trump unable to competently carry out his duties due to ill-health or dementia or similar excuses (which will have substantial truth).

3) By Article II, Clause 6 of the Constitution, the Congress can make a law for succession by other means and on other grounds.


June 4, 2017

Whatever you do, call tRump the REPUBLICAN President. 40 years of GOP & Trump is who Rs chose.

Republican and tRump brands are bound together and everybody in the public must have this fact cemented in their minds by constant framing of language and repeatedly calling him what he is: Republican President Trump.

2018 and 2020 depend on it.

Start now.

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Member since: Fri Jul 16, 2004, 10:36 PM
Number of posts: 47,538

About Bernardo de La Paz

Canadian who lived for many years in Northern California and left a bit of my heart there. (note to self: https: //images.dailykos.com/images/1043361/original/2016.09.19_sunflowers_header.jpg . https://i.imgur.com/1VKgdmc.jpeg)

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