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mzmolly
mzmolly's Journal
mzmolly's Journal
September 2, 2020
It's about time someone stated the obvious!
The Lincoln Project - HE IS CRAZY
https://twitter.com/i/status/1301291273089724416It's about time someone stated the obvious!
September 2, 2020
Trump is mentally unwell. Dark forces controlling Biden?
Dems need to call out his obvious mental health issues.
He's clearly unfit, in more ways than one.
September 2, 2020
An AXIOS guest on Joy Reid tonight talked about the RED MIRAGE some of us have discussed here. Joy Reid also covered the possibility that Republican officials in various states, may try to stop the mail in vote count and declare Trump the winner BEFORE all mail in votes are counted. Thus far, officials that were contacted by NBC, with directly related questions, have failed to respond.
I know I'm beating this drum over and over again. But it's best to be proactive, rather than reactive. And, If Joy Reid agrees, I can't be too crazy. 
Biden supporters need to plan our votes and be sure they're counted on or before election day.
PLAN YOUR VOTE - Excellent information from NBC
NBCNEWS.COM/PLANYOURVOTEAn AXIOS guest on Joy Reid tonight talked about the RED MIRAGE some of us have discussed here. Joy Reid also covered the possibility that Republican officials in various states, may try to stop the mail in vote count and declare Trump the winner BEFORE all mail in votes are counted. Thus far, officials that were contacted by NBC, with directly related questions, have failed to respond.
I know I'm beating this drum over and over again. But it's best to be proactive, rather than reactive. And, If Joy Reid agrees, I can't be too crazy.
Biden supporters need to plan our votes and be sure they're counted on or before election day.
September 1, 2020
Trump has slipped among key groups that backed him in 2016
Source: Los Angeles Times
WASHINGTON — President Trump’s support has eroded among key groups of voters who backed him in 2016 — a major reason why he continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden and a prime motivator for the president’s reelection strategy of emphasizing violent disorder in the nation’s cities.
Trump’s decline among parts of his 2016 base is a chief finding so far from the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll, which tracked voter preferences daily four years ago and is doing so again this year. Overall, Trump has lost support from about 9% of voters who backed him in 2016, the poll finds.
The poll shows no major shift in the race during the last two weeks, belying much speculation that the back-to-back national political conventions and violence in Portland, Ore., and Kenosha, Wis., might have changed what has been an unusually stable contest.
During the Democratic convention, Biden gained 2 percentage points and Trump lost 2 points; Trump then regained some of that ground during his convention, a week-by-week comparison of the poll’s tracking shows.
Read more: https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-09-01/trump-slipped-among-key-groups-backed-him-2016
August 30, 2020
More at: MARKET WATCH
Interesting analysis.
Opinion - Why Trump is unlikely to pull off an election surprise against Biden ... Market Watch
Can President Donald Trump do it again? Will he be able to convince enough undecided or uncommitted voters to give him another four years in office?
At the moment the short answer is “No”.
Looking just at the 2020 polls, an election observer could be forgiven for thinking that former Vice President Joe Biden has an easy path to unseating Trump. Yet few prognosticators are proclaiming an impending Biden victory. Perhaps this is because, despite a similar deficit in the summer of 2016, then-candidate Trump surprised everyone with an election night victory over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
A big part of that 2016 story is late-deciding voters decisively breaking towards Trump, potentially handing him victory and several swing states. One post-election analysis (APPOR 2016 Post-Election Report) found that Trump gained an average of 1% nationally and 3% in four swing states due to outperforming Clinton among the roughly one-in-eight voters making their decision in the week before Election Day.
...
This year, undecided voters are more likely to be female, less likely to have a college degree, more likely to be younger, and are more likely to be a person of color.
At the moment the short answer is “No”.
Looking just at the 2020 polls, an election observer could be forgiven for thinking that former Vice President Joe Biden has an easy path to unseating Trump. Yet few prognosticators are proclaiming an impending Biden victory. Perhaps this is because, despite a similar deficit in the summer of 2016, then-candidate Trump surprised everyone with an election night victory over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
A big part of that 2016 story is late-deciding voters decisively breaking towards Trump, potentially handing him victory and several swing states. One post-election analysis (APPOR 2016 Post-Election Report) found that Trump gained an average of 1% nationally and 3% in four swing states due to outperforming Clinton among the roughly one-in-eight voters making their decision in the week before Election Day.
...
This year, undecided voters are more likely to be female, less likely to have a college degree, more likely to be younger, and are more likely to be a person of color.
More at: MARKET WATCH
Interesting analysis.
August 29, 2020
More at FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
I'm voting early and in person - I want to see my vote counted.
Adding what DrunkenIrishman pointed out below: "... most states begin counting mail-in ballots first, not last. If a bulk of mail-in ballots are received prior to election day (which they should be), they will be counted first and then the same-day ballots will be counted."
Good information! Regardless, vote early and be sure your vote is counted.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx
Biden's Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight
... Democrats are much likelier than Republicans to say they will vote by mail — which makes sense given that Democrats also tend to be more supportive of mail voting. (By contrast, the Republican standard bearer, President Trump, has repeatedly and inaccurately assailed mail voting as ripe for fraud.)
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)
If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for … well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Biden’s votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although it’s unlikely they’d actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)
If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for … well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Biden’s votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although it’s unlikely they’d actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.
More at FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
I'm voting early and in person - I want to see my vote counted.
Adding what DrunkenIrishman pointed out below: "... most states begin counting mail-in ballots first, not last. If a bulk of mail-in ballots are received prior to election day (which they should be), they will be counted first and then the same-day ballots will be counted."
Good information! Regardless, vote early and be sure your vote is counted.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx
August 28, 2020
The supposed reason for Trump holding his convention at the White House
was because of the pandemic. Yet the idiot has a rally with no mask requirements.
August 26, 2020
I texted 'VOTE' to Trumps 88022
and ultimately they have an option to request an absentee ballot. 
Same damn thing as vote by mail.
I stopped correspondence once I saw where it led. Basically, they stole another idea from the DNC Convention.
August 23, 2020
More Than 550,000 Primary Absentee Ballots Rejected In 2020, Far Outpacing 2016
https://www.npr.org/2020/08/22/904693468/more-than-550-000-primary-absentee-ballots-rejected-in-2020-far-outpacing-2016Even with limited data, the implications are considerable. NPR found that tens of thousands of ballots have been rejected in key battleground states, where the outcome in November — for the presidency, Congress and other elected positions — could be determined by a relatively small number of votes.
For example, President Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by almost 23,000 votes. More than 23,000 absentee ballots were rejected in the state's presidential primary in April. More than 37,000 primary ballots were also rejected in June in Pennsylvania, a state Trump won by just over 44,000 votes.
The numbers are also significant because of large partisan differences in how Americans plan to vote this fall. Democrats have expressed more interest than Republicans in voting by mail — 47% to 28% in the Democracy Fund/UCLA survey. Forty-eight percent of those who intend to vote for Joe Biden say they will use mail-in ballots, compared with 23% of Trump supporters.
For example, President Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by almost 23,000 votes. More than 23,000 absentee ballots were rejected in the state's presidential primary in April. More than 37,000 primary ballots were also rejected in June in Pennsylvania, a state Trump won by just over 44,000 votes.
The numbers are also significant because of large partisan differences in how Americans plan to vote this fall. Democrats have expressed more interest than Republicans in voting by mail — 47% to 28% in the Democracy Fund/UCLA survey. Forty-eight percent of those who intend to vote for Joe Biden say they will use mail-in ballots, compared with 23% of Trump supporters.
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Member since: Sun Oct 19, 2003, 10:29 PM
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