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Name: Chris Bastian
Gender: Male
Hometown: Brooklyn, NY
Home country: USA
Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 73,181

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Nate Silver: We Have A Lot Of New Polls But There's Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening


After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for Joe Biden in the Midwest.


On average, Biden leads by 9 percentage points using a simple average of post-debate national polls, which matches his 9 point lead in our fancy-schmancy official FiveThirtyEight national average.

Itís a bit of a weird mix of polls, though, with more quantity than quality. The only two fully live-caller national polls in here are from CNN and CNBC/Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies, which show Biden leading by 12 points and 11 points, respectively. On the one hand, the trendlines arenít so bad for Trump in those live-caller polls. He trailed by 16 points in CNNís previous national poll, and by 9 points in the past Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies poll (or by 11 if you prefer to compare it to the prior NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll, which uses the same polling team).

On the other hand, the higher-quality national polls are showing worse results for Trump than the lower quality polls, which is rarely a good sign. More highly-rated online firms, such as YouGov, Morning Consult, and Ipsos, show Trump trailing by margins ranging from 9 to 12 points.



The RealClearPolitics "No Tossups" forecast


Biden 311 EV
Trump 227 EV

Biden takes WI, MI, PA, NC, IA, AZ, NE2

Trump takes TX, FL, GA, ME2


Democrats 51
Republicans 49

Dems take AZ, CO, IA, NC, ME

Reps take AL, GA, GA-S, SC

The 2024 GOP race is *already* happening


We won't know whether or not President Donald Trump will win a second term for (at least) six more days.

But ambitious Republicans aren't waiting around to see if Trump can pull off a major upset. They're out campaigning for candidates in what is rightly understood as the early jockeying for the 2024 GOP nomination.

Earlier this week, Nebraska's Sen. Ben Sasse was at the University of Iowa to deliver a lecture titled "American Order and Disorder, at Home and Abroad." And on Tuesday, Sasse was back in Iowa to "knock on doors for his friend Joni Ernst," according to James Wegmann, communications director for the senator.

Last week, former United Nations Ambassador (and former South Carolina Gov.) Nikki Haley was in Iowa stumping for Ernst. Arkansas' Sen. Tom Cotton, who is coasting to a second term this year, has made stops in both Iowa and New Hampshire in recent months.

New Montana poll (Montana State Univ, B/C): Bullock +1, Cooney Even, Williams -1


Trump's closing message: "It's midnight again in America"


Presenting this week's SPECIAL GUEST...


President Obama to Join Joe Biden in Michigan on Saturday

President Obama to Join Joe Biden in Michigan

On Saturday, October 31, President Obama will join Joe Biden in Michigan to discuss bringing Americans together to address the crises facing the country and win the battle for the soul of the nation. Additional details to follow.

New Kansas poll (GBAO (D), B/C): Bollier +1


New National Poll (CNN, B+): Biden +12

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