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Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 35,609

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Just in case anyone wondered what "the bus" looks like...

There's still plenty of room and weeks to go before the convention.

The world is changing its polio vaccine


The old polio vaccine inoculates against three strains of polio, which they call Type 1, Type 2 and Type 3. It uses live virus. The old vaccine has eradicated Type 2 polio from the wild, so the new one is made without Type 2 virus.

Let's see if I have this right

While Hillary was researching the real needs of the poor in Harlem and raising funds in San Francisco so downticket Democrats can more effectively compete against Koch-funded Republicans and teabaggers, Bernie spent $600,000 of his fans' hard-earned money to stalk the Pope.

Demanding this debate may not have been Sanders' brightest idea

Tell me about the revolution, Daddy

Bernie Sanders thinks we need a political revolution.

As does Donald Trump.

And the sovereign citizen community.

So...exactly what happens when a bunch of pissed-off, unarmed people who think the lack of a $15 minimum wage and that the government hasn't taxed the rich into financial oblivion and used the money to pay for healthcare, college tuitions and family leave programs are America's biggest problems...come up against a bunch of pissed-off, heavily-armed people who think America has a minimum wage at all, taxes on the rich are far too high, gays, non-Christians, people who aren't married, people who don't have enough kids, men who wear earrings and women who don't, and brown people are allowed to be on American soil, and the government spends tax money on anything except the Army are America's biggest problems...and those two groups come up against another bunch of pissed-off people who think the country having a government at all is America's biggest problem?

Update to my Pledged Delegate analysis

In this thread:


I came up with a projection that put Hillary's pledged delegate count 108 short of what she'd need to outright capture the nomination without any superdelegates. We just had our first contest since then, so...

I said:
Wyoming: 14 pledged delegates available, she should take 4. 1099 to go.

She took seven of them. Now she's down to a 105-delegate deficit.

A picture I took of my new car

I was cruising down US 2 toward Seattle when I saw something else I wanted to photograph...after getting it, I turned around and saw this...

I did an analysis of pledged delegates left in the race

Sanders fans hate superdelegates, every man jack of them. So I set them all aside to attempt to answer this question: Just how fucked is Bernie anyway?

Executive summary: He's not quite as fucked as fucked can be, but he's pretty fucked.

It takes 2,383 delegates of all stripes to win the nomination. Hillary currently has 1,280 pledged delegates and needs 1,103 more to take the nomination without one superdelegate. For calculation sake, I gave Hillary 65 percent of the states she'll probably win and 40 percent of the ones she'll probably lose.

As we speak, there are 21 contests left to go.

Wyoming: 14 pledged delegates available, she should take 4. 1099 to go.

New York: 247 pledged delegates available, she should take 160. 939 to go.

Connecticut: 55 pledged; Hillary should take 36. 903 to go.

Delaware: 21 pledged; Hillary should take 14. 889 to go.

Maryland: 95 pledged; Hilary should take 62. 827 to go.

Pennsylvania: 189 pledged; Hillary should take 123. 704 to go.

Rhode Island: 24 pledged; Hillary should take 16. 688 to go.

Indiana: I expect her to lose this right-wing state. 83 pledged; she takes 37. 651 to go.

Guam: The Sanders campaign stepped in it this week here. They have seven and she gets six. 645 to go.

WV: She'll lose this one too. Twenty-nine delegates are available; she takes 12. 633 to go.

KY: I think they'll split this one evenly. 55 are available and she takes 28. 605 to go.

Oregon: I think she loses this state. They have 61 and she gets 25. 580 to go.

Virgin Islands: Because it's an open caucus, she gets 40 percent of the vote - seven delegates, three to her. 577 to go.

Puerto Rico caucus: They have 60 and she gets 24. 550 to go.

California: The state's too big to ratfuck successfully. 475 available, Hillary takes 309. 241 to go.

Montana: He has this one. 21 available, she gets 8. 233 to go.

New Jersey: Sorry, Bernie. 126 available, 82 to her. 151 to go.

New Mexico: I think this one's his. 34 available, 13 to her. 138 to go.

North Dakota: Caucus. 18 total, 7 to her. 131 to go.

South Dakota: As bad as North Dakota...20 available, 8 to her. 123 to go.

Washington, DC: I think he gets stomped here. 20 available, 15 to her. 108 remaining.

Here's where it gets fun: The four biggest states still in the race are NY, PA, CA and NJ.
Remaining delegates:
NY 87
PA 66
CA 166
NJ 44
Total 363
If she can convert 30 percent of the delegates I don't predict her getting to Hillary delegates, she ends up with 2384 pledged delegates - exactly one more than she needs WITHOUT relying on one superdelegate.

There's probably a 70 percent chance of her coming to Philadelphia with less than 2383 pledged delegates, but there's essentially NO chance Bernie wins this thing - even if he seizes all her superdelegates.

Patty Duke's obituary


Apparently the last "God's Not Dead" movie didn't create enough atheists...

God's Not Dead is the heart-rending two-hour live-action version of a Chick tract - it's called Big Daddy and you can read it on Jack's website, but please don't blame me if you rip your eyeballs out to ease the pain. Even the most solid Christians agree that God may not be dead now, but if He ever watches this atrocity He's going to start looking for bridges He can jump from...

Unfortunately, the God-awful thing did 30x production costs so they made another one. And from everything I can find about it, it's just as bad as the last one.
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