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Wed Sep 18, 2019, 08:01 PM

California 2020: Biden, Sanders, Warren in Statistical Tie in Democratic Primary; Harris Struggles i

The California Democratic Primary is shaping up into a three-way race; former Vice President Joe Biden is tied with Sen. Bernie Sanders at 26% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren is close behind at 20%. A significant drop is seen between this tier and the next group of candidates; entrepreneur Andrew Yang is in fourth at 7%, followed by Sen. Kamala Harris at 6%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 5% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4%. Every other candidate is at 2% or less (MM, RV, n=424, +/- 4.7%, 9/13-16).

The California Democratic Primary will be held on Super Tuesday and Emerson Polling Director Spencer Kimball’s notes that at this point “Senator Kamala Harris is in trouble in her home state. If she is unable to gain momentum in Iowa or New Hampshire, come Super Tuesday she might have a similar fate to Sen. Marco Rubio in 2016, when he was unable to win his home state of Florida and dropped out of the race.”

Driving support for Sanders is younger voters under the age of 50. He leads those voters with 34% of their support, followed by Warren at 18%, Biden at 16% and Yang at 11%. Sanders also has strong support from the Hispanic population of California, leading that group with 36%, followed by Biden with 23%, Warren with 19% and Buttigieg with 7%.

Among voters age 50 or over, Biden leads with 40% support, followed by Warren with 23%, Sanders with 13% and O’Rourke with 8%.


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