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Wed May 29, 2019, 12:56 PM

Is There An Anti-Biden Lane for Other Democratic Candidates?

Nate Silver has a pretty interesting discussion up this morning on what candidates might do to knock Biden off his lead. Link here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-an-anti-biden-lane-in-the-democratic-primary/

I think it's the sort of thing we should keep in mind as time goes by and the debates draw closer. As to be expected the majority of the group are squarely in the 'anti-electability' corner. But even this group is willing to admit that the electability factor (be it real or not) is playing into Biden's early success.

They also agree that knocking off Joe Biden will not be easy. Biggest vulnerability: in their opinion, Joe's age. I'm reading this slant in a number of articles reflecting Biden's casual rollout, the fact that he's not barnstorming the crucial early states as are other candidates. Could it be, the articles query, a lack of stamina?

Also, the attacks on Biden will (they believe) ramp up though the effectiveness is yet to be determined. They made an interesting observation that if a number of Dem candidates start slamming on the same issue, it might break through. For instance the 90s Crime Bill, something Hillary Clinton caught heat over. The same attack from Trump would be less effective since his stance on criminal justice has been historically abysmal, despite the reform bill. The Manhattan Five, anyone?

Anyway, I think the maxim: To be forewarned is to be forearmed is useful to remember. Discussions are heating up even at DU and we're only a tiny slice of the Democratic community. The most recent slam over Joe Biden's attention to the 10-year old girl at the Teachers Union town hall was silly and lame. But that doesn't mean there won't be plenty more where that came from.

The other thing pointed out in the discussion is the determinative power of the debates. I think we all realize this. I have confidence in Biden standing his ground. But this will be the moment that lesser candidates will use as a breakout moment. Which means releasing the Big Guns, even if the fire is ultimately impotent. So far, none of the attacks have lessened Joe's undeniable lead.

Should get very interesting! Did I say ugly?

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Reply Is There An Anti-Biden Lane for Other Democratic Candidates? (Original post)
peggysue2 May 2019 OP
LakeArenal May 2019 #1
peggysue2 May 2019 #2
emmaverybo May 2019 #3
peggysue2 May 2019 #6
DownriverDem May 2019 #4
LakeArenal May 2019 #5
peggysue2 May 2019 #7

Response to peggysue2 (Original post)

Wed May 29, 2019, 01:00 PM

1. Well, it seems pretty biased for Nate Silver

To suggest ways to knock out Biden.
And a pollster?

Anyway, Joe Biden will remain the most qualified and well-liked candidate both nationally and globally.


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Response to LakeArenal (Reply #1)

Wed May 29, 2019, 01:32 PM

2. I think a lot of these pollsters have been caught flat-footed

They cannot figure out the 'why' of Joe's polling. Maybe that's because they don't share the real anxiety about Trump, the damage he's done and continues to do. The media goes out of their way to normalize Trump, pretend he's simply a different type of politician, rather than the wanna-be dictator he truly is. With Trump and his enablers in place, we could easily slide into fascism. That should terrify everyone.

Personally, I think that's Joe Biden's biggest advantage: he offers a way back to something we can actually call normal, to resume government function and to restore dignity and purpose to the Office of the Presidency. There's no learning curve for Biden because of his long history in Congress and his very active VP position in President Obama's Administration. He truly is ready on Day 1. Plus, Joe Biden is the only candidate with foreign policy chops. Lord knows, we've burned a lot of bridges abroad. It's going to take a seasoned hand and someone who has well-established relationships to heal the wounds inflicted.

So, yes this is a slanted discussion, a BS session between peers. Still, I think they cover the criticisms that are sure to emerge as we get closer to selecting our nominee.

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Response to peggysue2 (Reply #2)

Wed May 29, 2019, 03:10 PM

3. Terrific post. nt

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Response to emmaverybo (Reply #3)

Wed May 29, 2019, 05:14 PM

6. Thanks!

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Response to LakeArenal (Reply #1)

Wed May 29, 2019, 03:48 PM

4. Too bad

I keep seeing folks knocking Biden. They think a far left candidate is going to win the electoral college. It won't happen. We have to have a candidate that will win the moderate vote too. I would love to see a Biden/Harris ticket.

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Response to DownriverDem (Reply #4)

Wed May 29, 2019, 03:54 PM

5. I'm not knocking Biden???

I love Joe.

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Response to DownriverDem (Reply #4)

Wed May 29, 2019, 05:16 PM

7. That's 2 of us, Downriver

I would love to see a Biden/Harris ticket.

Hell of a ticket!

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