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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:00 PM

 

DU Primaries Report, April 2019: Let's Get This Party Started!

We've been keeping a log of the candidates' support on DU since March 22. The numbers are logged on Mondays and Fridays, and we plan to provide an update on the last Monday or Friday of the month. That's today! So here's the first update.

How the Candidate Rankings board works

First, since we haven't actually explained the inner workings of the Candidate Rankings board, here's a quick primer:
  • Displayed percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number, so a candidate displayed at (for example) 10% will have an actual percentage in the range of 9.50% to 10.49%.

  • The exception to this is candidates below 0.5% -- they are still displayed at 1% (to indicate that they have at least some support on DU). FWIW, there are currently no candidates with zero supporters.

  • If two candidates' whole number percentages are equal, the one with the higher actual percentage will be displayed first.
How the rankings have changed over time

By logging the candidates' support twice a week, we can create graphs of how their support has changed over time. Although we are logging and graphing all the candidates, for clarity in this report we've decided to only include candidates who are polling at more than 1% actual support. Currently, there are eight candidates who fit that criteria. They are (in alphabetical order): Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Jay Inslee, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.


Candidates above 1% actual support, including Undecided



Here you can see how Undecided supporters are slowly coming off the fence over the month of April. Undecided started at 48.42% on March 22, and has declined to 40.69% by today. Of note is that whenever candidates have experienced a bump in support for whatever reason, the bump has mostly drawn from Undecideds coming off the fence, as opposed to DUers switching support from one candidate to another.


Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided



By removing Undecided from the graph, we get a clearer picture of how the top candidates have moved over time.

Inslee, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, and Sanders have remained quite stable over the month of April. Inslee began the month at 2.48% and ends it at 2.00%. Klobuchar began at 1.15% and ends at 1.00%. O'Rourke began at 3.51% and ends at 2.78%, and Sanders began at 7.8% and ends at 7.96%.

Of those four candidates, O'Rourke has suffered the largest decline in support, starting strong when he announced his candidacy, but his share of support has been slowly bleeding week after week since then as new supporters have not been flocking to his cause. Meanwhile Sanders is the only candidate of the four to have increased his percentage over the month of April.

The other four candidates have seen a lot more movement. Harris was the number one candidate on DU for a long time, but her percentage of support has steadily declined since day one, as other candidates have come into the mix. She began April at 13.97%, and has now declined to 10.59%, although it's worth noting that she held onto the number one spot all the way up until last week, when she was finally overtaken by Joe Biden.

The current number one candidate, Joe Biden, has seen two significant bumps in support. The first came near the beginning of April as the media focused on stories alleging that he touched people inappropriately. The backlash to this reporting gave Biden a boost on DU and he increased his support from 8.32% on April 1 to 10.21% on April 8. His second, larger bump came over the past week when he officially announced his candidacy. That has pushed Biden up into first place with a significant jump from 9.54% on April 21 to 13.25% on April 29.

Pete Buttigieg saw the greatest overall increase in support since March 22, beginning at 3.82% and rocketing all the way up to 11.57% on April 19 as he began to garner national attention. (Buttigieg did draw some support from Biden between April 12 and April 19 as Biden's "backlash bump" faded slightly.) But does Mayor Pete have staying power? Since topping out at 11.57% and reaching second place in the rankings, Buttigieg has declined to 9.44% today and could be overtaken by Elizabeth Warren for third place at any moment.

Speaking of Warren, she appeared to be trending along the same lines as Inslee, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, and Sanders, only climbing from 5.83% on March 22 to 6.29% on April 19. But she has seen a spectacular rise since then, climbing three points to 9.29% today. We suspect that this increase in support on DU was due to her becoming the first candidate to officially call for Trump's impeachment following the Mueller report.

So that's where we stand so far. Obviously none of this is particularly scientific and it's not meant to replace or compete with actual real polls being done out there in the real world, but we do think it's been really interesting to track how DUers' preferences are changing over time. We'll be doing this again at the end of each month as long as the primaries are going on. Thanks for reading!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Arrow 53 replies Author Time Post
Reply DU Primaries Report, April 2019: Let's Get This Party Started! (Original post)
EarlG Apr 2019 OP
seaglass Apr 2019 #1
hlthe2b Apr 2019 #2
Quackers Apr 2019 #43
Laelth Apr 2019 #3
stonecutter357 Apr 2019 #4
Scurrilous Apr 2019 #5
FailureToCommunicate Apr 2019 #6
MineralMan Apr 2019 #7
LakeArenal Apr 2019 #8
Laura PourMeADrink Apr 2019 #9
ismnotwasm Apr 2019 #10
JudyM Apr 2019 #37
Initech Apr 2019 #11
CaliforniaPeggy Apr 2019 #12
Uncle Joe Apr 2019 #13
Crowman2009 Apr 2019 #14
Hekate Apr 2019 #21
Honeycombe8 Apr 2019 #15
PatrickforO Apr 2019 #16
spicysista Apr 2019 #17
Name removed Apr 2019 #18
WheelWalker Apr 2019 #19
Hekate Apr 2019 #20
USALiberal Apr 2019 #22
BigmanPigman Apr 2019 #23
CTyankee Apr 2019 #46
alfredo Apr 2019 #24
cstanleytech Apr 2019 #26
oldsoftie Apr 2019 #28
cstanleytech Apr 2019 #31
oldsoftie Apr 2019 #34
George II Apr 2019 #36
oldsoftie Apr 2019 #39
alfredo Apr 2019 #52
cstanleytech Apr 2019 #25
True Dough Apr 2019 #32
cstanleytech Apr 2019 #35
oldsoftie Apr 2019 #27
GemDigger Apr 2019 #29
oldsoftie Apr 2019 #40
GemDigger Apr 2019 #41
cstanleytech Apr 2019 #53
chia Apr 2019 #30
True Dough Apr 2019 #33
Quackers Apr 2019 #44
True Dough Apr 2019 #45
JudyM Apr 2019 #38
Skittles Apr 2019 #42
NYMinute Apr 2019 #47
EarlG Apr 2019 #49
NYMinute Apr 2019 #50
Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #48
Bradshaw3 Apr 2019 #51

Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:09 PM

1. Thanks for sharing this, quite interesting! n/t

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:11 PM

2. This is fun and I think everyone appreciates your doing so. Could we also get the Total N?

 

ie., the total number DUers registering a preference (including undecided)?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to hlthe2b (Reply #2)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 08:04 AM

43. +1 nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:21 PM

3. Very interesting and nicely done. Thank you. n/t

 

-Laelth
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:23 PM

4. K&R

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:42 PM

5. Good job!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:48 PM

6. Veeery interesting.

 

Thanks!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:52 PM

7. Thanks for the numbers and charts!

 

That will help people visualize what's going on better.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:54 PM

8. Very nice to know. Keep up the good work. Thanks.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:56 PM

9. Would be interesting to see this against all Dem #s. Looks

 

Like we are finally getting closer to the whole party. This is actually a very good sign.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:57 PM

10. I love Harris, but I was little surprised at Warrens numbers

 

Glad to see her rise.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to ismnotwasm (Reply #10)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 07:21 PM

37. Same here.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 12:59 PM

11. Trying to figure out current poll numbers and candidates like:

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 01:13 PM

12. Thanks for all your work! It's fascinating.

 

I look forward to seeing how the totals change over time.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 01:20 PM

13. Kicked and recommended.

 

Thanks for sharing EarlG.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 01:23 PM

14. Can anyone send me a link showing each candidates platforms?

 

I want some details about everybodys policy goals.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Crowman2009 (Reply #14)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 02:25 PM

21. You'd have to visit each candidate's site individually, I think. I doubt there is just one...

 

...at this time. I am prepared to be corrected, however.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 01:29 PM

15. Very interesting! nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 01:36 PM

16. Thanks! Quite interesting.

 

I'm interested to see Mayor Pete's staying power, as well.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
This is the DU member formerly known as PatrickforO.

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 01:51 PM

17. Thanks for putting all of this together!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)


Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 02:21 PM

19. Love data! Great job.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 02:23 PM

20. Thanks for the hard work, EarlG!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 02:33 PM

22. Any chance of getting the count by candidate? Nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 02:34 PM

23. Man, you beat Steve Kornacki's graphs no contest.

 

Very interesting that Biden went up AFTER it was reported that he touched people inappropriately....

"near the beginning of April as the media focused on stories alleging that he touched people inappropriately. The backlash to this reporting gave Biden a boost on DU and he increased his support from 8.32% on April 1 to 10.21% on April 8."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #23)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 10:07 AM

46. Sadly, I can't believe Kornacki any more. He used to be more believable, now I think he is being

 

a bit "funny" with his charts...something about him lately bothers me...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 02:51 PM

24. Thank you for this graph.

 

I was surprised that Sanders support is flat. Is he not gathering people to his cause?

Warren surprised me. She’s tough and smart.

Hated to see Harris’s numbers dropping. I guess if we win, and Harris isn’t pres or veep, I want her as AG.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to alfredo (Reply #24)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 02:53 PM

26. I suspect the biggest thing holding Sanders back was his going back to an independent

 

after he failed to secure the nomination in the last election.
Had he not done that then his support would probably be greater among more Democrats.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to cstanleytech (Reply #26)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 03:56 PM

28. True; makes it look like "Democrat for convenience only"

 

I didnt realize he had gone back to "I"
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #28)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 05:41 PM

31. "makes it look like "Democrat for convenience only"" Well it was his decision as it's not like he

 

was forced to leave by the party.
Now he has to deal with the consequences.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to cstanleytech (Reply #31)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 06:42 PM

34. Yep.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #28)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 07:21 PM

36. He had already registered his 2018 re-election campaign committee with the FEC....

 

....as an Independent even before the Convention.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #36)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 07:25 PM

39. Wow. So you can just come & go as you please depending on your needs?

 

The party cant say "thanks but no thanks"?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to cstanleytech (Reply #26)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 10:47 PM

52. We're not very good at recycling candidates.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 02:52 PM

25. Wierd how Buttigieg and Harris became almost parallel.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to cstanleytech (Reply #25)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 05:44 PM

32. Maybe their fates are intertwined

 

because they're destined to form a ticket???
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to True Dough (Reply #32)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 06:50 PM

35. Certainly possible as we have a long way to go to see how this all plays out but regardless

 

who wins I intend to fully support the winner and vote for them because just about any Democrat is better than Trump.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 03:55 PM

27. Still surprised how many are still "undecided". Seems like they'd at least lean to ONE.

 

After all, you can always change later if you want
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #27)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 04:15 PM

29. When you are in the last group of states to vote, it doesn't pay to get too worked

 

up over something you have absolutely no control over. Pay close attention, absolutely. Have a favorite, most likely. Get the hopes up, very cautiously.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to GemDigger (Reply #29)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 07:31 PM

40. Well, yes, but it does say; if i were to vote in a primary TODAY.

 

Seems like everyone would pick SOMEONE if the primary was really held today!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #40)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 07:53 PM

41. Good point, I had to laugh at myself and did a

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #27)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 10:56 PM

53. I am undecided simply because all our candidates are good in their own way and have already

 

earned my vote thus the only thing that really matters is kicking the asshole that is defecating all over the oval office to the curb.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 05:08 PM

30. Thank you for this.

 

Very interesting reading!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 05:46 PM

33. I guess one message here is

 

if you're looking for the picture of consistency, vote Amy Klobuchar!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to True Dough (Reply #33)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 08:08 AM

44. Lol

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Quackers (Reply #44)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 09:46 AM

45. I glad that brought someone a laugh!

 

Always aiming to Quackers you up!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 07:24 PM

38. Way to spin the party tunes, Dr Earl.

 

Thanks for the concise, informative rundown.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Mon Apr 29, 2019, 09:30 PM

42. excellent analysis

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 04:41 PM

47. Can we exclude the undecideds

 

and recalculate the percentages?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NYMinute (Reply #47)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 07:45 PM

49. I do have those numbers

 

This was the top 8 with Undecideds completely excluded and percentages recalculated, as of Monday:

1) Joe Biden: 22.35%
2) Kamala Harris: 17.85%
3) Pete Buttigieg: 15.92%
4) Elizabeth Warren: 15.67%
5) Bernie Sanders: 13.42%
6) Beto O'Rourke: 4.68%
7) Jay Inslee: 3.37%
8) Amy Klobuchar: 1.62%
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to EarlG (Reply #49)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 07:48 PM

50. Thank you!

 

This is helpful.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 04:47 PM

48. I love seeing it on a graph. Thanks!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to EarlG (Original post)

Tue Apr 30, 2019, 07:53 PM

51. Thanks for the explanations and info n/t

 

I was wondering how the poll worked, so appreciate it.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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