HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » This morning 538 updated ...
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:39 PM

 

This morning 538 updated their odds of winning the nomination. They have now forecast...

....that Sanders has ZERO chance of winning the nomination.

Biden >99 in 100 (>99%)
No One < 1 in 100 (0.1%)
Sanders < 1 in 100 (0%)
Dropouts < 1 in 100 (0%)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

38 replies, 4938 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 38 replies Author Time Post
Reply This morning 538 updated their odds of winning the nomination. They have now forecast... (Original post)
George II Apr 2 OP
SWBTATTReg Apr 2 #1
LastLiberal in PalmSprings Apr 2 #3
brush Apr 2 #28
Progressive dog Apr 2 #8
DownriverDem Apr 2 #2
OhZone Apr 2 #4
empedocles Apr 2 #9
Hortensis Apr 4 #38
William769 Apr 2 #5
LizBeth Apr 4 #37
NurseJackie Apr 2 #6
Tetrachloride Apr 2 #7
LizBeth Apr 2 #10
Thekaspervote Apr 2 #16
Sloumeau Apr 2 #11
ret5hd Apr 2 #12
Mr.Bill Apr 2 #13
LSFL Apr 2 #14
George II Apr 2 #15
True Blue American Apr 2 #25
Thekaspervote Apr 2 #17
johnthewoodworker Apr 2 #18
George II Apr 2 #19
johnthewoodworker Apr 2 #24
The Magistrate Apr 2 #27
johnthewoodworker Apr 2 #32
The Magistrate Apr 2 #33
johnthewoodworker Apr 2 #34
The Magistrate Apr 2 #35
grantcart Apr 2 #21
Cha Apr 2 #20
grantcart Apr 2 #22
Cha Apr 2 #23
Sucha NastyWoman Apr 2 #26
The Magistrate Apr 2 #30
Pepsidog Apr 2 #29
The Magistrate Apr 2 #31
Tarheel_Dem Apr 3 #36

Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:41 PM

1. Good. Maybe someone might take a hint?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SWBTATTReg (Reply #1)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:47 PM

3. Probably not.

 

If he was going to drop out he would have done so by now. His campaign has some subtext that is unexplainable.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to LastLiberal in PalmSprings (Reply #3)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 04:46 PM

28. The checks and donations keep coming in as long as he hasn't suspended.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SWBTATTReg (Reply #1)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:02 PM

8. We wish

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:44 PM

2. If only Sanders cared

 

about the country. Instead he appears to be listening to those who don't really care about defeating trump.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DownriverDem (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:47 PM

4. This

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DownriverDem (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:02 PM

9. Something 'creepy' about this

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DownriverDem (Reply #2)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 05:38 PM

38. Unfortunately, extremists and other types of zealots

 

care enormously. They don't care about the things 9 out of 10 people do. But they do care so much about what they want, and believe in its great virtue, that nothing else matters. Including the 9 out of 10 they're doing their best to smash out of their way, even as they prate about representing "the people."

I believe we have excellent reason to believe Sanders would be perfectly willing to repeat 2016, and is still on track. As some posts here always show, Democrats are the main focus of his and his most devoted followers' blame and enmity, their big obstacle, not the Republicans.

They're now desperately looking -- and waiting -- for a bomb they can still use to blow us up. And we know the Republicans are even more desperate, and Russia's kleptocracy extremely concerned about their own survival.

It's not over until it's over.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:47 PM

5. I said it once and I'll say it again. Bernie is 3rd in a 2 man race.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to William769 (Reply #5)

Sat Apr 4, 2020, 05:02 PM

37. Haha.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:49 PM

6. ZERO is not even ONE-TENTH of ONE PERCENT! Humiliating!

 

Is there a "LESS THAN ZERO" option available?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:49 PM

7. Bernie, how many delegates do you think you will win

 

in Wisconsin ? You know, the place with the apparent Democratic convention.

What about all the rest of the states and Puerto Rice ?

Where are your numbers ?

One more thing, how many people like you in the Senate ? Do you know how to cut a deal ?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:05 PM

10. Sanders will go down in history as pathetic

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to LizBeth (Reply #10)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:24 PM

16. +1000

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:07 PM

11. George II, thanks for posting this! :)

 



This is, of course, *fantastic* news for Joe Biden!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:07 PM

12. I think everyone knows what Bernie is ...

 

staying in for. Why wonít anyone say it?

OK, I will at least ask a question:
Who is the potential nominee if Biden comes down with the virus?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ret5hd (Reply #12)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:15 PM

13. Not Bernie. n/t

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ret5hd (Reply #12)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:17 PM

14. According to the chart...

 

No One has a commanding grip on 2nd place.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ret5hd (Reply #12)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:22 PM

15. It won't be Sanders. Even if Biden can't accept the nomination for some reason, Sanders will NOT...

 

....be the candidate with the most delegates. That will remain Biden.

Check Sanders' supporters on Twitter, including some of his PAID staffers - they're almost rooting for Biden to get ill. They keep talking about Biden's health and age, even though Sanders is months away from heart surgery and he's a year older.

Really sad that it's come down to a situation where one campaign is acting like this.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Reply #15)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 04:42 PM

25. Sanders is the one who had a heart attack and surgery.

 

Do they ever think of that?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ret5hd (Reply #12)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:25 PM

17. It's not Bernie

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:40 PM

18. Lets hope the Biden euphoria is well placed. I remember Hillary euphoria.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to johnthewoodworker (Reply #18)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:49 PM

19. What is this "euphoria" of which you speak?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Reply #19)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 04:39 PM

24. It seems rather apparent to me that Biden has been the heavily favored candidate on this site.

 

Similarly, Hillary was the heavily favored candidate over Sanders in 2016. As candidates dropped out of the campaign, Warren was my candidate, and Sanders was the only other candidate, this site was replete with posts touting Biden and disparaging Sanders. My point is that Biden has arrived as the eventual nominee and many people are quite happy, satisfied, and euphoric that he is the candidate. In 2016 the same was true with Hillary.

My concern is that Biden, like Clinton, while our best candidate, might not be good enough to win in November. I voted for Clinton in 2016 and will vote for Biden in 2020. There will be quite a bit of discussion and introspection if we lose in 2020. So, I am concerned.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to johnthewoodworker (Reply #24)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 04:45 PM

27. If You Acnowledge Mr. Biden Is the Best Candidate, Sir

 

What is the point of craw-fishing and suggesting he will be defeated?





"From Bernieís perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they donít want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to The Magistrate (Reply #27)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 05:51 PM

32. I'm not sure what 'craw-fishing' is. I don't think suggestion is the right word to describe my post.

 

I believe that a better way to describe the situation would be to say that in DU circles Hillary was the one in 2016. After her defeat, in other forums, her candidacy was questioned. Was she, in fact, the best candidate. Her loss would indicate she was not. I don't 'suggest', but fear a similar outcome with Biden. If my fear is 'craw-fishing', then, yes, I'm craw-fishing. This is the defining election of everyone's lifetime. I fear the general election and Biden's acceptance by those that are not inspired by his selection. No offense to you, or, anyone else.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to johnthewoodworker (Reply #32)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 05:57 PM

33. A Old Country-ism, Sir, For Backing Off Or Away

 

Crawfish, little miniature fresh water lobsters, move most quickly backwards by a quick curl of their tails.

It is still puzzling that you acknowledge Mr. Biden the best candidate, yet somehow seem to expect he will fail of victory. Is there someone else you prefer?

No need for concern about offending me. That is well nigh impossible to do, and people have tried.

Be well, Sir, and stay safe.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to The Magistrate (Reply #33)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 06:02 PM

34. I am a cynic and worry too much. Thank you. You stay safe as well.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to johnthewoodworker (Reply #34)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 06:06 PM

35. Fair Enough, Sir --- I've Rather a dark Turn Of Mind Myself

 

"Pessimists get pleasant surprises. Optimists face bitter disappointments."






"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to johnthewoodworker (Reply #18)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 04:11 PM

21. Welcome to DU

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:59 PM

20. BS is stationed between no one & Dropouts..

 

and he's telling his supporters he has "a narrow path"?! But he wouldn't tell Whoopi what it is?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cha (Reply #20)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 04:12 PM

22. Remember Dumb and Dumber?

 


"So there IS a chance! ".
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Reply #22)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 04:17 PM

23. Oh yes.. who could forget

 

them.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 04:44 PM

26. Good. Maybe now people will stop posting the evil Bernie threads

 

I keep hearing how hateful he and his followers are, but I only see our side attacking theirs here. Ok so maybe somewhere else they do evil things, but I donít see it going on here. I see just the opposite. Iím glad Biden isnt doing it too..

Bernie is no more relevant to the election than, say Tulsi Gabbard, Marianne Williamson or Michael Bloomberg. Only DUers give him any relevance at all, as far as I can see.

Going after Trump is going to promote Biden, not going after Bernie.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Sucha NastyWoman (Reply #26)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 05:09 PM

30. Sanders Retains The Capacity To Harm, Ma'am

 

Even if the harm is not too likely to result in a November defeat, it remains a risk it is not necessary to endure. Since Sanders has no discernible chance to secure the nomination for President of the Democratic Party, his continuing an ostensible campaign for the position invites speculation as to his actual motivation. On the record of his previous performance, the most likely reason for his persistence is the desire to wring platform and rules concessions from our Party, using the threat his most devoted followers might not vote for the Party's nominee in November if he is not thus placated as a tool for blackmail towards this end. He would not have the votes on the convention floor to secure anything, so that any alteration to platform or rules at all would be well in excess of what by ordinary rules of democratic process he would be entitled to.

It is worth noting as well that Sanders probably could not deliver his most devoted followers even if negotiations in good faith were pursued. The instant it was obvious such negotiations were underway, these people would turn on Sanders with cries he was a sell-out, knuckling under to the 'Democratic Establishment' and the big corporations, and in general denouncing him as a false messiah betraying the revolution. Sanders has 'called up that which he cannot put down' and is but driftwood on the wave of currents and events he cannot much influence, and has largely misperceived to begin with.





"From Bernieís perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they donít want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 04:50 PM

29. I remember it was 99% that Hillary will win.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Pepsidog (Reply #29)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 05:25 PM

31. Not If You Were Actually Paying Attention You Do Not, Sir

 

And it is worth noting how odds and probabilities work when dealing with measures such as the 538 people deal in. That something presents odds of, say, five out of six, does not by any means ensure a single trial will not prove to be one where the one in six chance will come home. It means that if you could run the trial a large number of times, say sixty thousands, that one outcome would occur about fifty thousand times and one about ten thousand times. Elections being one time events, however good a calculation of odds might be, and however one sided the odds are, an anomalous result may still occur on a single trial.

The odds given by the 538 people on Sanders securing a majority of delegates out of the remaining primaries are such that he could not win on a single throw of honest twenty-sided dice 'percentile' dice. Since a great many separate events are involved (the succession of individual state primaries), the calculation of these odds reflects cumulative probabilities, rather than a single trial. Sanders does not have to win a single coin toss, he has to win something on the order of two dozen coin tosses in succession. Any sum you care to place on that possibility I would be happy to cover at any odds you might name. I would consider putting up a hundred to secure a hundred and one an investment rather than a wager.





"From Bernieís perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they donít want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Original post)

Fri Apr 3, 2020, 04:14 PM

36. K&R

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread