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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:12 AM

 

Black voters prefer Bernie over all others, (2/26/20)

Last edited Sun Mar 8, 2020, 02:25 AM - Edit history (1)

This poll did not get it right at all. What happened? Even from Bernie's rallies today, you can see he does not have black support.



Senator Bernie Sanders has surpassed former Vice President Joe Biden in support from black voters, making him the most favorable candidate for that demographic, a new national poll shows.

The Hill/HarrisX survey has Sanders extending his lead in the 2020 Democratic presidential race after Tuesday night's debate—and with a 9-point advantage among black voters. Overall, Sanders saw a 6-point increase from last week's Hill/HarrisX poll, with 28 percent support among Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters. The poll was conducted between February 23 and 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.

https://www.newsweek.com/black-voters-prefer-bernie-sanders-over-all-other-democratic-candidates-new-poll-shows-1489209?fbclid=IwAR2fkk9cO0I6h3H6LpV48Ay6rfGL5cHtQc_HfJwsHq51f_E321tdl15RyvM
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply Black voters prefer Bernie over all others, (2/26/20) (Original post)
showblue22 Mar 2020 OP
Cha Mar 2020 #1
showblue22 Mar 2020 #3
Cha Mar 2020 #5
TexasTowelie Mar 2020 #2
Cha Mar 2020 #7
denem Mar 2020 #4
BidenBacker Mar 2020 #12
dware Mar 2020 #6
Control-Z Mar 2020 #8
showblue22 Mar 2020 #9
Control-Z Mar 2020 #10
showblue22 Mar 2020 #11
Control-Z Mar 2020 #17
betsuni Mar 2020 #13
robbedvoter Mar 2020 #14
bobGandolf Mar 2020 #15
oasis Mar 2020 #16
ucrdem Mar 2020 #18
Igel Mar 2020 #19
NCProgressive Mar 2020 #20

Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:15 AM

1. I remember that.. big ol fricking newsweek letters. That was Disproved

 

in South Carolina and Super Spectacular Tuesday.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:17 AM

3. He never had their support

 

It's relevant even today in MI. How did they get it so wrong?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Reply #3)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:20 AM

5. Exactly.. I just ignored it.. I knew it wasn't true.

 

I dunno how they got it so wrong but they need to check their polling.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:16 AM

2. There really should be some awards for "Pollster of Shame"

 

for predicting the results so incorrectly.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #2)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:21 AM

7. Polling Wall of Shame

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:18 AM

4. HarrisX - Mark Penn / Scott Rasmussen

 

enough said.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to denem (Reply #4)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 02:59 AM

12. Penn & Rasmussen???

 

More than enough said!

I'm surprised they weren't off even more than they were. I'd trust polls conducted by Alphonse & Gaston or Abbott & Costello more than these two.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:20 AM

6. Which goes to prove what I've been saying,

 

don't trust polls.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:38 AM

8. Am I imagining it

 

or do these ridiculous polls and articles always come with caps lock on? It seems that BS news has to be yelled at the rest of us in order to hear it, or something. Whatever it is it's offensive.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Control-Z (Reply #8)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 01:47 AM

9. Yea, I'm sorry. I used copy and paste.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Reply #9)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 02:21 AM

10. Yes, I know you did.

 

I always check the source when all caps headlines show up. I hope you didn't take offense by my questioning. It wasn't directed at you in any way.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Control-Z (Reply #10)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 02:24 AM

11. Not at all.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Reply #11)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 06:09 AM

17. Thank goodness.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 03:01 AM

13. Early April Fools Day!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 03:39 AM

14. A lot of bad polls to go with the pundits gaslighting

 

Watch for it. It won’t stop. Trumputin at work.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 04:51 AM

15. Thanks for posting this. N/T

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 05:03 AM

16. Riiiiiiiiight!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 06:48 AM

18. Thank you South Carolina Democrats

 

for helping us get our sh#t together. We've come a long, long way in one short week

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to showblue22 (Original post)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 10:58 AM

19. As friend used to say, the devil's in the details.

 

Details are irritating and confusing, and usually left out.

So that +/- 4.5 pt difference is the calculated error--no claim as to the real error--and is an estimate. Could be higher, but odds are strongly that it's 4.5 or less--but those are the odds, not an absolute truth.

The calculated error is also for the poll as a whole. The error for subgroups tends to be higher since the number of respondents in each subgroup is less. That detail's often not reported.

Poll structure matters. Was it a forced choice poll, where you couldn't say, "IDK"?

Did they ask, "If it's just Biden and Sanders, who would you vote for?" Because a lot of polls were things like 25-28-16-15-... where the top two have a clear difference of 3%! But in the actual election, some of those 16% and 15% preference candidates vanished. The people who preferred a not-Sanders candidate didn't just apportion themselves in accordance with the preferences of those who only were choosing between Sanders and Biden.

Then there's the structure of the electorate, the rock upon which more than one poll has crashed. If the poll assumes "likely voters" are whatever they get, and they poll 50% "likely (D) voters" under 25 and the other 50% from 25 to 30 years old, they really have no clue what the over 30-years-old set would say. Now, *every* poll includes some sort of model to weight their responses and fill in gaps and level hills in the response rate. That's an assumption that isn't included in calculating the error rate.

I can't find the information built into that Hill/HarrisX poll, which means I tend to regard it as less useful than reading tea-leaves. It might mean something, might not, can't tell and it's a waste of time--except that if you're having your tea leaves read, at least you got a cup of tea out of it.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Igel (Reply #19)

Sun Mar 8, 2020, 11:01 AM

20. The poll with five choices dropped to two

 

and became useless.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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