HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » 538: Bloomberg Bet Big On...
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 01:28 PM

 

538: Bloomberg Bet Big On California. It Might Not Pay Off.

It’s hard to avoid thinking of Bloomberg’s bid as a kind of political science experiment — a test of whether an elderly, extraordinarily wealthy ex-Republican can run a competitive campaign almost entirely on the basis of his own advertising and a big, generously paid staff. That experiment will play out across the country this week, when Bloomberg will finally appear on the ballot after a bizarre campaign in which he entered the race late, skipped the four early states and focused instead on winning the trove of delegates that await on Super Tuesday.

And California is, in many ways, the maximal test of Bloomberg’s strategy. He’s invested a lot in other big Super Tuesday states like Texas, but California is the state where his dollars should carry him the furthest, because its media markets are so expensive and the state’s large, diverse population makes it hard to set up an effective ground game.

His spending spree has certainly gotten him somewhere in California. Bloomberg is now polling around 13 percent in California, according to our average, up from 4 percent in January. But Californians also love to tell you about the self-funded candidates who have tried — and failed — to spend their way into public office. Take Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Michael Huffington or Al Checchi. After this Tuesday, we’ll know whether Bloomberg will join that inglorious pantheon or whether California’s unexpected contribution to the Democratic nomination process is the elevation of a self-funded billionaire’s candidacy.

Right now, it seems like Bloomberg will finish in third or fourth place even though he has spent tens of millions of dollars in the state. But after seeing Bloomberg’s swanky office, I wanted to find out how ordinary Californians were feeling about his campaign. After spending several days talking to voters across Los Angeles, one thing became clear: Bloomberg’s spending has bought him notoriety, but hasn’t translated into widespread enthusiasm.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bloomberg-bet-big-on-california-it-might-not-pay-off/

If Bloomberg's big bet fails in California, Biden will likely be the beneficiary, and not just in California but in other states where Bloomberg was polling high. It does appear the stars are aligning for a big day for Biden tomorrow.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

8 replies, 648 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 8 replies Author Time Post
Reply 538: Bloomberg Bet Big On California. It Might Not Pay Off. (Original post)
honest.abe Mar 2020 OP
HopeAgain Mar 2020 #1
lapfog_1 Mar 2020 #2
stopbush Mar 2020 #6
TwilightZone Mar 2020 #3
honest.abe Mar 2020 #4
stopbush Mar 2020 #7
TwilightZone Mar 2020 #8
Moderateguy Mar 2020 #5

Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 01:31 PM

1. Let's hope not. NT

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 01:31 PM

2. nobody is voting for Mike

 

and only his paid promoters are left trying to cheer lead for the boss.

At least that is my humble opinion.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lapfog_1 (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:38 PM

6. I've been voting since 1972, and I early voted for Mike here in CA.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 01:40 PM

3. If Bloomberg does poorly tomorrow, he needs to drop out and join the others in backing Biden.

 

I suspect he will, especially if Joe also has a good day.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to TwilightZone (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 01:46 PM

4. Yes, I suspect you are correct.

 

Despite all of his negatives, he is clearly a smart man and will do the smart thing at that point.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to TwilightZone (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:40 PM

7. It all depends what Bloomberg sees as doing poorly.

 

His strategy is obviously to win some delegates and stay in it if there’s a brokered convention.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to stopbush (Reply #7)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:50 PM

8. Agreed.

 

It's relative, of course. He's a smart guy and has tons of analytical people on staff, so I suspect he has some thresholds in mind already.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 01:49 PM

5. I still hope he is viable in CA along with Liz

 

Splitting the pie 4 ways in CA is much better than 2 ways...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread