Biden's big win in SC pretty much assures a brokered convention.

[Laelth]

Current delegate totals are as follows:

Bernie Sanders 58
Joe Biden 50
Pete Buttigieg 26
Elizabeth Warren 8

Bernie's likely to pick up 50% (or a little more) of the delegates available on Super Tuesday. Bloomberg is likely to pick up about 20%, and Joe looks likely to pick up 30%. Those are just my rough guesses. While many would like to believe that Joe picked up a lot of momentum coming out of SC, and he did, that momentum may not be reflected well on Super Tuesday due to the effect of early voting before Joe's SC win.

Pete will likely drop out and encourage his delegates to vote for Biden, but neither he nor Elizabeth have enough delegates to significantly affect the outcome of the race. Nobody has even had a chance to vote for Bloomberg, yet, but they will in a couple of days, and it is almost certain that Bloomberg will collect a significant number of delegates. There's no reason to believe that Bloomberg is dropping out of this race.

So, it's a three-way race, at this point, and I don't see that changing. Under these circumstances, it's hard to imagine any candidate going into the convention with a majority of delegates. Joe would have to get slaughtered on Super Tuesday in order for this to be a two-way, Bloomberg/Sanders race, and Joe's win in SC makes that outcome unlikely. It's more likely that Joe will do well enough on Super Tuesday to send us to a brokered convention.

For better or for worse ...



-Laelth

[Peacetrain]

1. Laelth... Super Tuesday is followed pretty quickly with states like Flroida

and those are going to play much better for Joe.. I am starting to think Joe can wrap this up before the convention.. I do not know why, but I just don't see us having a brokered convention.

I could be so wrong.. but that is what my gut is telling me..

[LakeArenal]

2. Always with ya!

[OilemFirchen]

3. ... and then the Rust Belt.

Senator Sanders, IMHO, will be decimated there.

[bearsfootball516]

8. That's not necessarily true.

Remember that Sanders beat Hillary in Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana.

They were all by pretty small margins and I doubt he duplicates them, but it's not a certainty.

[OilemFirchen]

10. Secretary Clinton was not FROM the Rust Belt.

It's my opinion that regionalism will be a huge factor.

[Ace Rothstein]

11. LOL, she's from Illinois.

Bernie will very likely win WI and MI.

[OilemFirchen]

12. LOL, she's from New York. Was Obama from Hawaii?

Senator Sanders, at best, will be competitive in Wisconsin. Not Michigan, and certainly not Ohio or Pennsylvania.

[Ace Rothstein]

16. Hawaii has frequently been referred to as Obama's home state.

The rust belt isn't a monolith and won't vote the same way across the board. WI and MI will go for Sanders as they did in 2016.

[ahoysrcsm]

29. Yeah, Obama was just working in Chicago for a few months...

as a community organizer... He was from both. Hawaii is his roots, but he was from Illinois.

[Ace Rothstein]

30. Did you even see the post I was originally responding to?

I'm well aware of where Obama's political career was based out of. I had the pleasure of voting for him 6 times.

[Old Crow]

34. As a long-term resident of Pennsylvania...

I want to know which planet you're getting your information from. Sanders will "certainly not" be competitive in Pennsylvania? Virtually every Sanders v. Trump poll taken in Pennsylvania has Sanders winning, as a visit to the RealClearPolitics website would show you.

When people are ignoring polling data and spreading misinformation, it's a clear sign the tribalism on this site has gotten out of hand.

[OilemFirchen]

35. Oh c'mon.

Sanders vs. Biden in Pennsylvania.

And you're questioning my terrestrial bona fides?

[Old Crow]

36. In Pennsylvania, Sanders is beating both Trump and Biden in the polls.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/2020-poll-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-donald-trump-bernie-sanders-democrats-20200223.html

Regarding my first post, yes, I thought you were referring to a general election match-up and not the primaries; my mistake.

And no, I'm not questioning your "terrestrial bona fides." I'm simply stating that I am from Pennsylvania. Are you?

[OilemFirchen]

37. 63 years in Ohio.

Close enough.

The rest, BTW, in Indiana, Florida and Michigan.

[Old Crow]

38. That would be a "No," then.

But my chief complaint, per my original post, is that in proclaiming Sanders will "certainly not" be competitive in Pennsylvania, you're ignoring the polling data. Of course, you're welcome to your own opinion--even if it's at odds with the evidence.

[Demsrule86]

17. I expect Joe to win Michigan...not Sanders.

[PupCamo]

26. and Bernie's from New York

how did that turn out for him

[onetexan]

31. The rustbelt states love Biden. He will win there.

[Sugarcoated]

33. He denies crooked Don Pennsylvania

that's a lock for Scranton Joe and almost certainly the other blue wall states, and then some.

[Laelth]

5. You're right.

Biden should beat Bernie in FL, and that will help Joe even out the delegate count, but Bloomberg is going to rack up a good number of delegates as well such that, in my opinion, none of our candidates is likely to enter the convention with a majority.

But, my crystal ball is far from perfect. We shall see what we see.



-Laelth

[tarheelsunc]

27. I think Joe winning on the 2nd ballot is the most likely outcome, but I hope you're right. eom

[Baked Potato]

28. My gut is telling me the same thing. My spare gut agrees, too. Lol

[OhZone]

4. Brokered or not -

I just say, let the best Democrat win!

[Laelth]

6. LOL.

Got to admire subtlety.



-Laelth

[Dopers_Greed]

7. My guess is brokered convention with Joe leading in delegates

This could get ugly.

Clinton clinched the nomination with delegate count, but Sanders still tried to fight to the convention.

[Laelth]

15. I think Bernie will be leading in delegates.

Otherwise, I agree with you.

It could be ugly. On the other hand, it could be good for the party. It will generate media attention, at the very least, and it might also generate public concern about the serious issues that our candidates are seeking to address. That could be a good thing for the American people.

Remember. We went into the last convention with Hillary Clinton as our “presumptive” nominee. That didn’t work out for us the way we would have liked.



-Laelth

[MontanaMama]

9. We've got a long way to go

to 1991 delegates. Question...if the candidates that drop out before the convention endorse a candidate still in the race, do their delegates go to the candidate they endorse? What happens if the candidate that drops out does not endorse another candidate...where do those delegates go? Do they wait until the first ballot of the convention to vote again?

[Moderateguy]

13. Delegates are only pledged to the original candidate

Any released delegates are free to vote their conscience on the first ballot. Starting on the 2nd ballot it’s a free for all and anyone over the age of 35 can emerge the nominee

[Amishman]

18. Yup, this us why I think Bernie and Bloomberg are at a disadvantage

If the delegate totals are close between the three, Bernie and Bloomberg (being somewhat of outsiders and both controversial) may struggle to attract the other delegates.

[Laelth]

14. Moderateguy, above, gave you the right answer, as far as I know. n/t

-Laelth

[squirecam]

19. The 538 forecast this morning

Had Bernie at 1645, which was 40%.

Biden had 1352, which was 33%.

Bloomberg has 563.

Total him and Biden (because Bloomberg would obviously prefer him to Bernie) and you get over 1900. Biden would be very close to the nomination.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-south-carolina-and-a-bunch-of-new-polls-are-showing-a-close-super-tuesday-race/

[ucrdem]

20. Sanders won't get 50% on Tuesday now that Biden is a contender.

It's a whole new ball game.

[Laelth]

21. Sanders won't get 50% of the votes cast, no.

But he is likely to get 50% or more of the total delegates awarded. That’s different.

As I said above, the momentum created by Joe’s big win in SC will be diluted by a lot of early voting that occurred prior to the SC primary.

Or, so I suspect.



-Laelth

[TexasTowelie]

22. I suspect that Bloomberg, much like Bernie, is going to underperform at the ballot box

compared at the polls. I doubt that Bloomberg will receive hundreds of delegates and he may only be viable in two or three states.

Polls are often lagging indicators to what is actually occurring at ground level. It only takes one positive moment in order for a campaign to gain momentum and Biden emerged from South Carolina with the MoJoe. People are moving from undecided and other candidates into the Biden camp. Donations are also up for the Biden campaign and I noticed that ads are now running for Biden on Facebook, while in previous weeks I've been inundated with ads for Bernie and Bloomberg.

I think that there is still a strong possibility that the nomination will be decided on the first ballot, particularly since only 3% of the delegates have been determined.

[Laelth]

23. Hope springs eternal.

We shall see what we see.



Blue no matter who. OLD AND BLUE WILL DO!

-Laelth

[William769]

24. I'm beginning to think that may not be the case anymore.

[Laelth]

25. I get it. Hope springs eternal.

I love Joe. I do, but I am also ready to vote for Bernie in November if that's what my peers in the Democratic Party tell me that they want. I am trying to prepare myself for that possibility.

I see far too many people who feel differently.



-Laelth

[gulliver]

32. Biden could have the plurality, in which case, Sanders is honor bound to bow out.

Sanders said when asked during one of the debates that a candidate with the most votes should win. That could be Biden.

Biden, on the other hand, said the rules should be followed and would not be honor bound to bow out if Sanders has the most votes.