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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:21 PM

 

SC SHOCK POLL! Clemson University Palmetto Poll: Biden 35% Sanders 13%

The poll had 650 respondents, with a mixed survey methodology of telephone respondents, online and online panel voters. It was conducted by a professional polling firm of voters statewide from Feb. 17-25. The survey has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.8%, and a 95% confidence level for the results.

Voters in the poll were asked: "If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?"

- Joe Biden 35%
- Tom Steyer 17%
- Bernie Sanders 13%
- Elizabeth Warren 8%
- Pete Buttigieg 8%
- Amy Klobuchar 4%
- Tulsi Gabbard 2%
- Unsure 12%

more: https://www.wyff4.com/article/clemsons-university-palmetto-poll-results-released-ahead-of-saturdays-primary/31116432
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply SC SHOCK POLL! Clemson University Palmetto Poll: Biden 35% Sanders 13% (Original post)
honest.abe Feb 2020 OP
David__77 Feb 2020 #1
womanofthehills Feb 2020 #41
David__77 Feb 2020 #45
honest.abe Feb 2020 #47
David__77 Feb 2020 #57
honest.abe Feb 2020 #59
David__77 Feb 2020 #61
Cha Feb 2020 #2
SunSeeker Feb 2020 #10
LakeArenal Feb 2020 #52
BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #3
honest.abe Feb 2020 #4
BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #8
honest.abe Feb 2020 #12
BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #13
honest.abe Feb 2020 #16
BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #17
honest.abe Feb 2020 #18
BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #19
honest.abe Feb 2020 #20
Celerity Feb 2020 #26
honest.abe Feb 2020 #27
Celerity Feb 2020 #28
redqueen Feb 2020 #21
honest.abe Feb 2020 #22
redqueen Feb 2020 #23
womanofthehills Feb 2020 #50
womanofthehills Feb 2020 #42
Democrats Ascendant Feb 2020 #5
Name removed Feb 2020 #6
honest.abe Feb 2020 #9
Celerity Feb 2020 #31
wryter2000 Feb 2020 #49
Gamecock Lefty Feb 2020 #7
BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #11
TwilightZone Feb 2020 #14
Moderateguy Feb 2020 #15
womanofthehills Feb 2020 #43
mikeysnot Feb 2020 #24
honest.abe Feb 2020 #25
mikeysnot Feb 2020 #64
honest.abe Feb 2020 #66
TwilightZone Feb 2020 #32
mikeysnot Feb 2020 #65
wyldwolf Feb 2020 #33
Politicub Feb 2020 #34
LanternWaste Feb 2020 #67
Politicub Feb 2020 #29
Dennis Donovan Feb 2020 #30
maxsolomon Feb 2020 #35
honest.abe Feb 2020 #36
maxsolomon Feb 2020 #37
honest.abe Feb 2020 #38
tavernier Feb 2020 #40
LanternWaste Feb 2020 #68
womanofthehills Feb 2020 #44
honest.abe Feb 2020 #48
womanofthehills Feb 2020 #51
honest.abe Feb 2020 #60
HopeAgain Feb 2020 #39
womanofthehills Feb 2020 #46
Bumperstickers Feb 2020 #56
David__77 Feb 2020 #58
Mike Nelson Feb 2020 #53
honest.abe Feb 2020 #54
Mike Nelson Feb 2020 #55
OliverQ Feb 2020 #62
colsohlibgal Feb 2020 #63

Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:24 PM

1. Yep, Biden is definitely in the polling lead.

 

...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to David__77 (Reply #1)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:11 PM

41. only 3% of poll were aged 18-25 - college students not represented & they have been active

 

84% or people polled were over age 41


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to womanofthehills (Reply #41)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:19 PM

45. That actually is odd - if they didn't reweight.

 

I mean it's all good to get an unbalanced sample provided that some sort of reweighting of responses is done. I don't see reference reweighting at http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf.

I doubt that 55+ age group will account for 64% of the total electorate. I think it would that group would account for around 46% of the total if things are roughly aligned with this 2016 CNN exit poll: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/sc/dem

In any event, we shall see soon enough on results.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to David__77 (Reply #45)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:37 PM

47. Good grief these are survey professionals. I think they understand the need for reweighting.

 

That is standard procedure.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #47)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 05:07 PM

57. OK.

 

I don't know - there are no cross-tabs with which that can be readily determined. The use of the phrase "respondents" in the narrative on the results seems like perhaps they didn't do it.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to David__77 (Reply #57)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 07:58 PM

59. My appologies. It appears they did not weight the data.

 

The results of the survey were not weighted for age, sex or ethnicity, pollsters said. Three percent of respondents were under 25, 14 percent were under 25, 20 percent were under 54, 21 percent were under 64, and 43 percent were 65 or older.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/484723-biden-leads-by-18-points-in-south-carolina-poll
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #59)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 08:38 PM

61. No problem at all!

 

In this case, it wasn't me trying to engage in wishful thinking so much as being interested. In my work, I design and deploy surveys in another area of research, and could imagine that a researcher might think something like "well, we got a statistically valid random sample, and we should not weight it because we simply do not know what the true population will be." Or something like that... I think that sometimes researchers get sidetracked by a certain dogmatism about concepts like statistical precision, when a "reality check" might be useful. Anyways, thank you for letting me know!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:25 PM

2. KR! And, of course they're not asking repubs

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #2)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:30 PM

10. Yep. I wish SC wasn't an open primary.

 

There should be no open primaries. Why invite ratfucking?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #2)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:12 PM

52. And of course, it's labeled as SHOCKING!!!

 

Jay Zeus H cripes.

Iím not shocked. Pleased. Happy.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)


Response to BlueTillIDie (Reply #3)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:27 PM

4. I think it was just likely voters.

 

No mention of party affiliation.. afaik.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #4)


Response to BlueTillIDie (Reply #8)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:35 PM

12. This was posted on twitter that gives a few more details.

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERtxReRXYAAW5Fo?format=jpg&name=large
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #12)


Response to BlueTillIDie (Reply #13)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:43 PM

16. "grain of salt" ??

 

The Palmetto Poll is considered the gold standard in South Carolina polling..

https://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/palmetto-poll-at-clemson-to-utilize-social-media-analytics-in-advance-of-2020-democratic-primary-general-election/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #16)


Response to BlueTillIDie (Reply #17)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:46 PM

18. They improved it.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #16)


Response to BlueTillIDie (Reply #19)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:49 PM

20. Ok I thought they had actually improved it from reading that article I posted.

 

Anyway yes, I am sure its good news for Biden.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #16)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:14 PM

26. I now fully believe that Biden will win SC, possibly a large win, but to call a B/C rated poll the

 

'gold standard' is problematic.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Reply #26)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:15 PM

27. Ok.. I stand corrected.

 

I thought they were.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #27)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:19 PM

28. all good!! cheers

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #12)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:55 PM

21. That is not correct. The snip below is from the PDF linked from the article.

 

The Palmetto Survey was of 650 respondents, with a mixed survey methodology of telephone respondents, online and online panel voters. It was conducted by a professional polling firm of voters statewide from February 17-25. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%, and a 95% confidence level for the results. The demographic profile is as follows:


What I found most interesting is this part: "online and online panel voters"

Anyone know what that means?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to redqueen (Reply #21)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:57 PM

22. Some of it is same. Looks like the dates and MOE are off a bit.

 

How do you know for sure which one is correct?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #22)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:00 PM

23. The image from Twitter says nothing about online respondents. That's a big difference.

 

I know this is correct because it is linked from the article.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to redqueen (Reply #21)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:05 PM

50. Online panel voters are usually people who get compensation for answering questions

 

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Online-Panels.aspx

Online Panels
An online panel is a sample of persons who have agreed to complete surveys via the Internet. Although a few online panels in the United States and Europe recruit their members from probability samples (randomly selected addresses or telephone numbers), most online panels use other methods of recruitment.

The vast majority of online panels in the U.S. are made up of volunteers who were recruited online and who receive some form of compensation for completing surveys, such as small amounts of money or frequent flyer miles.




Online panels are a popular tool for data collection and they have proven their value for many purposes. In fact, online surveys outperformed live telephone polls in forecasting the outcome of the 2012 election. Although they did not do so well in 2014 they again were on par with live telephone in 2016. In addition, rigorous evaluations have found that volunteer online panels are less representative of the general population than probability samples. Still, online panels will doubtless play a growing role in political polls done in the next few years.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to BlueTillIDie (Reply #3)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:14 PM

42. It was mostly a people over 40 poll

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:28 PM

5. 12% unsure

 

Seems SC has largely made up its mind in comparison to the other early states.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)


Response to Name removed (Reply #6)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:30 PM

9. I know. That is another shocker.

 

If Bernie finishes third or fourth he will take big hit on Super Tuesday.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #9)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:22 PM

31. We will all owe Steyer a round! Even if he could in reality buy us the brewery!!!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Name removed (Reply #6)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:46 PM

49. Welcome to DU

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:28 PM

7. Why is Gabbard getting 2% in my party???

 

She should be at ZERO %!

My humble opinion only.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Gamecock Lefty (Reply #7)


Response to Gamecock Lefty (Reply #7)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:42 PM

14. Maybe they managed to poll all 7 of her supporters in SC.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gamecock Lefty (Reply #7)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 12:42 PM

15. Maybe because we are a BIG TENT

 

and allow for a diversity of opinions in our party unlike the other party?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Gamecock Lefty (Reply #7)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:15 PM

43. Independents and Republicans

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:07 PM

24. SC a state that has not gone D for president since 1976

 

A state that gave us these hacks.

lindsey graham
james demint
mark sanford
joe wilson
strom thurmund
trey gowdy



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mikeysnot (Reply #24)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:09 PM

25. LOL.. I knew this was coming.

 

Do you not care about good Democrats in Red states? Shall we just throw them out and only allow Democrats in Blue states to vote in our primary? That is not how it works.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #25)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 03:07 PM

64. reread my post

 

I stated no such thing?

I was just pointing out ... facts?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mikeysnot (Reply #64)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 03:33 PM

66. For what purpose? Seems out of place to be discussing Republicans in this context.

 

Unless you are trying to make the point I was referencing.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to mikeysnot (Reply #24)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:22 PM

32. This is a primary, not a general election.

 

All delegates matter, even one from states you don't like.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #32)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 03:07 PM

65. When and where did i hear this before....

 

hmmmmmm.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mikeysnot (Reply #24)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:22 PM

33. a fact that's only relevant during trivia night at your favorite bar.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to mikeysnot (Reply #24)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:24 PM

34. I see SC as more of a referendum than anything else

 

The state is not in play for the general. I could be wrong.

But itís a good place in which to take the temperature of votersí preferences in a diverse yet conservative state.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to mikeysnot (Reply #24)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 03:44 PM

67. The important thing is that you minimize any state that doesn't fit your narrative.

 

And minimize them with both the irrelevance and petulance you illustrate here (as well as some D- grammar thrown in).
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:21 PM

29. An excellent showing for Biden

 

He needs to decisively take SC, and it is looking like it is breaking his way.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 01:21 PM

30. Yes!!!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:35 PM

35. What's the "Shock" part?

 

Biden was expected to do well in SC.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to maxsolomon (Reply #35)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:40 PM

36. Biden "left for dead" leading by 18 points and "front runner" Bernie in a distant third.

 

I think that would be considered a "shock" by most folks paying attention to this primary.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #36)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:43 PM

37. Super Tuesday is where this will all shake out.

 

I don't want either of them to be the nominee, as I am DU's foremost Ageist.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to maxsolomon (Reply #37)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:52 PM

38. I wished none of our 70+ candidates was running.

 

My fav candidate was Kamala Harris. But given what we have to work with Joe is my guy now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #38)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:58 PM

40. My dream ticket would be Biden/Harris

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to maxsolomon (Reply #37)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 03:44 PM

68. Tide Pod challenge voters are the BEST!!!!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #36)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:19 PM

44. But they did not include the young in this poll and they go for Bernie

 

so this poll is not very valid except for how the older people of SC will vote.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to womanofthehills (Reply #44)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:39 PM

48. That was the demographics of the people they randomly called. The cant control that.

 

That always happens in polling. Once they have the data then they have to reweight based on typical voter patterns. That is standard procedure.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #48)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:08 PM

51. They claim to be using online panels - I would think they could control it there

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to womanofthehills (Reply #51)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 07:58 PM

60. My appologies it appears they did not weight the data.

 

The results of the survey were not weighted for age, sex or ethnicity, pollsters said. Three percent of respondents were under 25, 14 percent were under 25, 20 percent were under 54, 21 percent were under 64, and 43 percent were 65 or older.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/484723-biden-leads-by-18-points-in-south-carolina-poll
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:53 PM

39. Only 3% of those polled were under 25...

 

seems a little off since that is his strongest demographic. 63% were baby boomers. That's only 36% of the people polled being under 54.
There's more than one way to skew a poll...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HopeAgain (Reply #39)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:24 PM

46. Same thing with the PPP poll - 66% were over 46 yrs old - something fishy

 

So if 35% were l8 to 45 - maybe only 15% or less in this poll were under 25.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HopeAgain (Reply #39)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:35 PM

56. Nice catch!

 

.64% of those polled were over 55, 40 and under 17%
Now we know why the poll was so far off from all the other SC polls.

Age:
18 Ė 25.............3%
26 Ė 40............14%
41 Ė 54...........20%
55 Ė 64...........21%
65 plus...........43%

http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Bumperstickers (Reply #56)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 05:11 PM

58. They could have reweighted the responses. There's nothing to indicate if they did.

 

I mean, it makes sense that they would. There's just no crosstabs or other information to indicate that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:27 PM

53. The range of days...

 

...seems large, to me. I wonder if the sake people were asked on the 17th and 25th? And, did it include Republicans - as they are voting in "open" primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Mike Nelson (Reply #53)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:33 PM

54. It takes time to do these polls if you dont have a large operation.

 

This was conducted by Clemson University. Also, I think they didnt inquire about political party. Just if they were likely voters. Which makes sense since its an open primary.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #54)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:34 PM

55. Ok

 

... thank you!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Original post)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 09:24 PM

62. Major outlier and not a particularly great poll.

 

But then none of that matters here since this is a Biden echo chamber.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to OliverQ (Reply #62)

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 10:21 PM

63. This

 

My politics line up with both Warren and Bernie but Lean Warren because I think Bernie, like Biden are too old.....men who would hit their 80s in their first term. As I think Iíve stated before I idolized my Paternal Grandfather but at 80 he was not as sharp as he was and more easily confused.....and Joe has had issues at times with Gaffes and confusion. Again I think he is a decent man, as is Bernie but the age thing troubles me.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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