If the centrists want to stop Sanders, all but one need to drop out today.

[LonePirate]

If the centrists feel Sanders is leading us down the path of doom, then all but one of them should drop out of the race immediately. Except that is not going to happen because the centrist candidates either (A) do not feel that way about Sanders or (B) their judgment is clouded by their egos. There is no realistic hope for anyone except Biden or Bloomberg according to Nate Silver and 538.

Buttigieg (1 in 30 chance), Klobuchar and Steyer (1 in 100 combined) have almost no chance to win. Biden (1 in 8) and Bloomberg (1 in 12) are the only viable options. Bloomberg is not going anywhere until after Super Tuesday at the earliest. So that leaves Biden. Should he fall on his sword to clear a path for Bloomberg or should Biden step up his game and adopt Bloomberg’s messaging tactics to push him out?

Regardless of the person chosen, if the centrists do not like Sanders, they can only blame themselves if he becomes the nominee.

[LeftTurn3623]

1. well Amy & Warren should have already dropped out

I agree about Pete not having a realistic chance but you cant ask him to drop when he is leading in delegates. Maybe after Nevada & SC.

No way Biden should dropout. If he does well in Nevada & wins SC he will be considered comeback story and he is polling better than anyone else other than Bernie.


&quot B) their judgment is clouded by their egos."

file Amy & Warren under B

[Iliyah]

2. No.

[still_one]

3. You are right, but it isn't going to happen, and I would argue it isn't a question of "stopping

Sanders”, as much as it is reducing the odds for an open convention

[BusyBeingBest]

4. Bloomberg's got the money, honey. He's not going anywhere.

He's also got a very large and professional campaign organization. This is where it's headed, and people need to come to grips with it.

[Laelth]

5. Nearly anything can happen at a brokered convention.

Our candidates know this, and there is no sign that any of them will be dropping out before Super Tuesday. After Super Tuesday, depending on their funding, we are likely to see two or more candidates drop out, but the current polling suggests that we are heading for a brokered convention. Nobody appears ready to abandon the middle lane at this time.

-Laelth

[LonePirate]

8. If the candidate with the most delegates going into the convention is not chosen, we are doomed.

The only exception to that is if the two leading candidates are separated by a very small number of delegates. Otherwise, the leading candidate should be chosen, even if it is Bernie.

For instance, if Bernie arrives at the convention with 40% of the delegates, Biden and Bloomberg with 25% each with everyone else combining for 10% and Bernie does not emerge as the nominee, we will be destroyed in November (actually as soon as the final roll call vote is announced).

A brokered or contested convention is the last thing our party needs.

[Laelth]

12. I don't know.

A brokered convention would give us a lot of media coverage. In 2016, Hilary was assumed to be inevitable, and that didn’t work out as we had hoped. I am not certain that a brokered convention would be such a bad thing for the party.

-Laelth

[LonePirate]

13. The media attention would be outweighed by angry supporters of the leading candidate.

It also gives the impression we are thwarting democracy by not anointing the leading candidate. Brokered or contested conventions are very dangerous and that is why the media loves them.

[MineralMan]

19. The convention rules cover such a situation just fine.

A "contested" convention just means that nobody has a majority on the first ballot. Nothing wrong with that, and it corrects itself on the second or third ballot. A "brokered" convention cannot take place under the current rules. Simple.

If there are three candidates and none of them can reach a majority on the second ballot, the third-place candidate can and probably would drop out and suggest that his or her pledged delegates vote for one of the two remaining candidates. That would end it.

Remember that the superdelegates vote on the second ballot under the current rules, which could change if a majority of delegates votes for a change.. That would shift things a good deal.

We are the Democratic Party. We use democratic principles in cases like those. A plurality does not win the nomination. A majority is required.

[LonePirate]

23. If superdelegates deny the nom to a clear plurality leader, that place will explode and we will lose

Cite all of the idealistic norms you want but if Candidate X, whoever that is, has a clear lead but no majority going in, we will be trounced in November if that person is not our nominee. Having a leader eliminated by party insiders sends a horrible message and 45 will definitely spin it as negatively as possible to sow more harm.

[cherryinpa]

33. This is the reality

This is the reality.

Unfortunately many in our party are guided by high minded principles rather than facing the reality on the ground.

Walk into a brokered convention and unleash WW3, its as simple as that.

The only change to your post I would suggest is that the DNC disqualify Bloomberg as a wolf-in-sheeps clothing. We have three SOLID moderates in Biden, Klobuchar and Warren and the support should coalesce around one of then, not a Republican usurper.

[MineralMan]

34. I disagree completely.

Following the normal process at the convention will lead to a nominee who gets the votes of the majority of the delegates. Case closed.

[LonePirate]

35. You are sorely mistaken if you think someone with a 10-20% lead and being denied is good for us.

Sure, if the race is close then, say 30-28-26-others, then people might accept the ultimate victor. However if it is 40-25-16-others and that 40 person is not nominated, we might as well not even bother in November.

[MineralMan]

36. It is months until the Convention.

We've had only two primary events so far. Let's talk on March 4.

[CalFione]

21. what if it is 33%, 30%, 24%, 13%?

and what if 2nd and 3rd place both represent the same wing of the party?


Selecting a candidate that 2/3 of the party don’t want is just as big a disaster.

now imagine if 4th and 3rd place candidate pledges their delegates to #2? Now you have a very large majority that coalesced around a candidate.

and in that case, the one with 33% needs to accept it and encourage their followers to unite.

[LonePirate]

25. That falls into the close race exception I mentioned above.

[lapucelle]

6. There are no "centrists" in the field.

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[Act_of_Reparation]

17. You get that these terms are relative, right?

[lapucelle]

26. Relative to what? All our candidates are on the left.

You do get that, right?

[Act_of_Reparation]

37. Left is relative to right.

Maybe hold off on the condescending hand-wave until you've established a basic understanding of the topic at hand.

[lapucelle]

38. None of our candidates is on the right. They are all on the left,

relative to both center and right.

Now seems like a good time.

[Act_of_Reparation]

39. No, it really isn't a good time at all.

"Left" and "right" are determined by the relative distance between the two. If, over the past thirty years, the Republican party have moved steadily to the right, those who were centrists in 1980 are liberals today.

[lapucelle]

42. Idiosyncratic, subjectively determined criteria are just that,

and often difficult to take seriously.

Because elections take place in the real world, it's better to rely on objective, data-driven analysis rather than meaningless spin.

Centrist:




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The Democratic Field:

[TwilightZone]

41. "condescending"

You might want to look in the mirror. The other poster isn't the one being condescending.

[thesquanderer]

18. That chart is not the final word. In the real world, people know just which candidates you mean,

if you talk about a candidate further left or closer to center.

[lapucelle]

27. All our candidates are on the left.

Given that the term "centrist" has become pejorative, it's important to remember that.

[MineralMan]

7. Too early for that. We've had two primary events. Two.

Soon, we will have four.

Then in two weeks, we'll have Super Tuesday. Two weeks. On March 4, you are going to see the field reduced to just three or four candidates. The rest will drop out due to an inability earn delegates or raise funds.

So, there's no need for what you suggest at this early stage of the primary race. No need at all. The voters will thin out the herd.

[LonePirate]

9. This is a very bad idea as it leads to a contested convention. See post #8.

Unless you secretly support Sanders, that is.

[CalFione]

15. A contested convention is better than a clear Bernie win

we can recover from a contested convention in which someone other than Bernie emerges as the nominee.

We can’t recover from Bernie being the nominee. It means any hope of taking the Senate is gone... we wouldn’t win the AZ, NC, IA, and ME senate races if Bernie is at the top of the ticket. and Bernie has a hard ceiling of about 220 electoral votes in a general election.

[brooklynite]

10. Conversely, Warren should drop out to consolidate the progressive vote behind one candidate...

right?

[LonePirate]

11. Warren's voters would disperse in many directions; but given her lack of viability, she should drop.

Your attempt at a gotcha moment failed, though.

[CalFione]

16. If she syphons off potential Bernie votes, better to stay in

[CalFione]

14. They can wait until after SC

NV and SC will tell us which one should remain.

Joe, Pete, and Amy should all get together after SC and decide to support whichever one of them did the best in NV/SC and two of them should drop out.

Liz should stay in as long as she financially can to be a progressive alternative to Bernie and keep his numbers down.

Bloomberg should announce he is supporting the choice that emerges from Pete/Amy/Joe, but technically stay in the race so he isn’t subject to any spending limits and can keep hammering Trump.


Joe, Pete, Amy, Liz, and Mike... I believe... know that Bernie must not get the nomination if the Dems are to have any chance at the Senate and White House.

I believe Joe is wise enough to drop out if it appears Pete or Amy are stronger coming out of NV/SC. I hope Amy and Pete are wise as well.

Bernie being the nominee means a lost Senate, a lost White House, and RBG’s seat going to another RWer (There’s no way she can hold out to 2024. She wants to retire and be replaced by a liberal.)

We need to focus, and nominate someone other than Bernie. Or literally ALL is lost.

[BusyBeingBest]

22. Your scenario suggests that some candidates will go on paying campaign staff,

giving stump speeches and interviews, living on buses and planes, and in general undergoing the exhausting grind of a campaign, all while planning to lose and support someone else as some sort of strategy that doesn't benefit him or her at all. They're almost all going to drop out eventually, but that will be when they can see no way to win, and no heart attack or fatal gaffe or skeleton from the front runners appears likely. Bloomberg is now the front runner in several states. He's not going to drop out, barring something unexpected.

[Prue]

29. Agreed n/t

[JustAnotherGen]

30. Agree on the House and Senate

Which then makes Sanders a one term President, and hell for him at that.

I would rather have Tom Malinowski and Booker as my Rep and Senator (both up for re-election this year) and take the Senate entirely - so that we can impeach the fuck out of Trump in 2021 - and Pence too.

That would be awesome to have a President Nancy Pelosi running the show.

[thesquanderer]

20. re: "So that leaves Biden." Except more Biden voters have Sanders as their 2nd choice

than anyone else, according to morningconsult.

re: "There is no realistic hope for anyone except Biden or Bloomberg according to Nate Silver and 538."

And yet, those numbers have changed and can continue to change. Low odds are not no odds, especially this far out.

[JustAnotherGen]

28. I'm a moderate

And I don't think Sanders should be stopped - nor do I think any candidates should just drop out. Bloomberg wants Trump out more than he wants to be President. He's going to draw a lot of fire from Trump the next few weeks - and get under his skin.

I don't think Bloomberg is the nominee - but he's already helping our nominee craft a campaign of vicious attacks on the Trump Administration and GOP.

What I would caution Sanders and Warren on? I would caution them to not throw out the baby with the bathwater. Bloomberg can generate FREE media buzz and provide the money to hammer Trump in the General.

[LonePirate]

32. My concern is stopping a contested convention where superdelegates could upend the race.

I am voting blue no matter what in November. However, I cannot say the same of all supporters of the centrists or especially of Sanders if there is a clear plurality leader going into the convention and that leader does not become the nominee. There is nothing good that can come from that.

[Zolorp]

31. One of them needs to take one for the team before dropping out.

Whoever it needs to drop all the baggage Sanders has on the media all at once several days before dropping out, too.

I know that comes with death threats and so on, I hope somebody is brave, though.

[MoonlitKnight]

40. If anyone but Sanders is your goal

You have to make sure Warren stays in the race. That would buy time to sort out the others. With her gone it would further strengthen Sanders while further distributing the remaining voters among the other candidates.