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Undecided 41%
Elizabeth Warren20%
Joe Biden16%
Bernie Sanders13%
Pete Buttigieg5%

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:03 PM

 

538 - Election Update: Biden Hasn't Exactly Collapsed Since New Hampshire

Three days after the New Hampshire primary, we are finally getting some polls that reflect the new state of the race — including a poll in Nevada, the next state in the voting sequence, for the first time in a full month! And overall, they’re not showing that any candidate has grabbed a ton of momentum out of Iowa or New Hampshire. That’s probably good news for former Vice President Joe Biden, whose firewall in Southern states appears weakened but still standing. But mostly it’s a recipe for a long, drawn-out nominating contest. In fact, our national primary forecast currently says that the single most likely outcome of the primary season is that no candidate gets a majority of pledged delegates.

Let’s start with that Nevada poll, which was conducted Feb. 11-13 (which means some interviews were probably conducted before the results from New Hampshire were known) by WPA Intelligence for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and AARP Nevada. It showed Sen. Bernie Sanders with 25 percent, Biden with 18 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 13 percent, businessman Tom Steyer with 11 percent, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 10 percent and Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 10 percent.

Although Biden has topped most Nevada polls we have, this poll didn’t affect the toplines in our Nevada forecast too much because it was right around where it expected the race to have settled post-New Hampshire. Our model currently gives Sanders a 2 in 3 (64 percent) chance of winning the Nevada caucuses, while Biden is given a 1 in 6 (16 percent) chance. Buttigieg (1 in 10, or 10 percent) and Warren (1 in 15, or 7 percent) are also outside shots to win the state.

On Friday, we also got our first South Carolina poll in more than a week, courtesy of East Carolina University. The Feb. 12-13 survey gave Biden 28 percent, Sanders 20 percent, Steyer 14 percent, Buttigieg 8 percent and Klobuchar and Warren 7 percent each. (Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg got 6 percent in the poll, but he is not on the ballot in South Carolina.) Compared with ECU’s previous South Carolina poll, which was conducted shortly before the Iowa caucuses, Biden fell 9 percentage points, and Steyer fell 5 points. Sanders rose 6 points, Klobuchar rose 5 points and Buttigieg rose 4 points.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-hasnt-exactly-collapsed-since-new-hampshire/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply 538 - Election Update: Biden Hasn't Exactly Collapsed Since New Hampshire (Original post)
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Feb 14 OP
George II Feb 14 #1
squirecam Feb 14 #4
TwilightZone Feb 14 #12
thesquanderer Feb 14 #16
squirecam Feb 14 #17
thesquanderer Feb 14 #20
Scurrilous Feb 14 #25
thesquanderer Feb 14 #29
Scurrilous Feb 14 #31
TwilightZone Feb 14 #21
thesquanderer Feb 14 #23
PatSeg Feb 14 #8
Cha Feb 14 #2
squirecam Feb 14 #3
Fiendish Thingy Feb 14 #5
squirecam Feb 14 #6
DownriverDem Feb 14 #9
Scurrilous Feb 14 #33
revmclaren Feb 14 #28
Scurrilous Feb 14 #7
squirecam Feb 14 #10
Scurrilous Feb 14 #13
TwilightZone Feb 14 #15
Scurrilous Feb 14 #24
TwilightZone Feb 14 #11
Scurrilous Feb 14 #19
TwilightZone Feb 14 #22
emmaverybo Feb 14 #14
Iliyah Feb 14 #18
Scurrilous Feb 14 #27
Kerrycrat Feb 14 #26
colsohlibgal Feb 14 #30
UniteFightBack Feb 14 #32
Scurrilous Feb 14 #34

Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:04 PM

1. Someone here said yesterday that Sanders was predicted to win every state through Super Tuesday!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #1)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:07 PM

4. In fairness

 

The model did say that. The article even says sanders was favored to win sc even though he really wasn’t.


Ever since he finished fourth in Iowa, Biden has no longer been the favorite in South Carolina, according to our model. Sanders currently has a 1 in 2 (47 percent) chance of winning South Carolina, while Biden has a 2 in 5 (37 percent) shot. However, part of the reason our model has Sanders as the favorite is that it thinks Biden could drop out before South Carolina even votes. In the scenarios where Biden is still in the race come Feb. 29, though, he is probably still favored in the Palmetto State
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to squirecam (Reply #4)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:40 PM

12. "it thinks Biden could drop out"

 

Considering that that's extraordinarily unlikely before SC, one would think that 538 could factor it out.

I'm starting to understand the wild swings in their predictions the past couple of weeks. The numbers never made any sense, but if it was thinking Biden might withdraw post-NH, it is at least not as inexplicable.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #12)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:10 PM

16. re: " Considering that that's extraordinarily unlikely before SC"

 

I'd say unlikely, but by no means impossible. It depends on how long he can go without good news, without running out of money.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #16)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:11 PM

17. Biden went right to SC on NH primary day

 

I think he was always going to fight there no matter what...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to squirecam (Reply #17)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:18 PM

20. I'm sure he wants to. But without knowing the cash situation, there's some uncertainty.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #20)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:53 PM

25. It's OKish.

 

'Joe Biden’s presidential campaign took in $22.7 million in the fourth quarter, an improving fundraising pace that still lags some of his rivals for the 2020 Democratic nomination.

It marks the best cash haul for the former vice president so far, his campaign announced Thursday. It did not say how much money it had in the bank heading into January, the crucial final weeks before the first primary nominating contest in Iowa.

“We had a great quarter, and we’re going to expect another one next time,” Biden said in a video shared by his campaign.'

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/joe-biden-raises-22point7-million-in-the-fourth-quarter.html
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #25)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 09:16 PM

29. I think the question is whether they've been meeting projections THIS quarter, i.e.

 

since Iowa, and since New Hampshire. Probably not. But who knows how much they're falling short by, how much cushion they have, and what they need to maintain staffing and media presence in Nevada and SC? It may be well under control... but it can also be an issue, and we just don't know. That's why, while I don't think he'll be dropping out, I wouldn't bet my house on it. There's a small but not insignificant amount of uncertainty here.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #29)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 09:21 PM

31. I think they say at the end. Meanwhile..

 

Joe Biden to host more than 250 donors from Wall Street, big business at NYC fundraisers – here’s the guest list

'The first gathering is set to take place at Sarabeth’s restaurant earlier in the day in Manhattan and the second event will be at the nearby Wayfarer restaurant, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, who declined to be named as these decisions are made in private. The guest list shows there will be at least 280 attendees split between the two events and each have contributed $2,800 to gain entrance. Nobody has dropped out of attending, these people noted.

There are many others who donated that same amount but could not attend, these people added.'

https://www.cn0/02/13/joe-biden-hosts-wall-street-donors-at-ny-fundraisers-as-campaign-struggles.html


280 times $2,800.00?

'Jethro!''Commence to ciphering.'



'2 gazinta 4, 2 times, 3 gazinta to 9, 3 times.'

$784,000.00?


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #16)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:18 PM

21. It's two weeks away.

 

It's also the first state (realistically) he expected to pick up significant delegates and start a run. If the chances weren't zero, they were as close as it gets.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #21)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:24 PM

23. He didn't expect to come in 4th and 5th, drying up contributions.

 

That's why there's any question at all.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to George II (Reply #1)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:33 PM

8. Yeah, that was a bizarre prediction

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:05 PM

2. Didn't think so

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:06 PM

3. This is a lot of guessing

 

Based upon a few state polls.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:15 PM

5. How's Joe's fundraising going?

 

That’s going to determine if he can stay in the race past Super Tuesday, not polls.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:17 PM

6. He was just fundraising in NY

 

So I assume he has cash.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:35 PM

9. Folks like me

 

have been giving too.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DownriverDem (Reply #9)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 09:27 PM

33. ...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 09:05 PM

28. Since there are people like me giving donations

 

to Biden all the time he's just fine.

Strange that people are so worried about donations to other candidates. The concern seems so... concerned.

As I noted in another OP..."Spinning Isn't Winning!".

Super Tuesday is coming fast. We'll see how things are going then. IMHO Biden will be in it to win it all the way.





ONLY!!! 2020 and beyond.



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:32 PM

7. What he fails to mention is the other poll from 2/6.

 

It had Sanders and Biden exactly where they are now. Wouldn't fit in w/ the falling. And it would contradict his crap model. Like the new GA poll did.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #7)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:36 PM

10. The race is a narrative.

 

People cite 538 when winning. But rarely when losing.

Same with the national polls, or the head to head polls.

But Nate still gets the clicks.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to squirecam (Reply #10)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:51 PM

13. Hah!

 

I can't believe I'm citing commondreams.

Nate Silver Is Making This Up as He Goes

'It’s a curious stance from a man who claims, among other self-imposed limits and constraints, that his empirical models deliberately seek to ignore those major public events that move—usually briefly—opinions about politics and events.'

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

Hold that thought...


Iowa Might Have Screwed Up The Whole Nomination Process

'The answer in the case of Iowa is that it matters a lot. Despite its demographic non-representativeness, and the quirks of the caucuses process, the amount of media coverage the state gets makes it far more valuable a prize than you’d assume from the fact that it only accounts for 41 of the Democrats’ 3,979 pledged delegates.'

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process/

Is it me, or did he forget the plot?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #13)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:59 PM

15. Even worse....

 

As squirecam noted above, the model "thinks" that Biden might drop out before SC, which is partly why there was such a wild swing in the predictions.

There was, quite literally, zero chance of that happening. I can't believe that he either didn't factor it out or had no way to.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #15)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:42 PM

24. His predictions were crazy. They made no sense.

 

Sanders winning Tenn. and OK? What?

Was he going for self-fulfilling prophecy?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #7)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:38 PM

11. If you're talking about the Zogby poll...

 

Their reputation is pretty poor so he might essentially be ignoring it. Unfortunately, most of the polls out of SC recently have been from mediocre firms and ECU isn't rated so it's hard to tell what's going on.

Somewhat ironically, the highest rated poll out of SC in the past month is...Fox News. Inexplicably, they have a decent polling organization, probably entirely by accident.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #11)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:16 PM

19. Yeah, it is crap. But he put it into his calculations for the average, so...

 

I think Zogby called my landline a few years back and asked if I was *********. My AOL name from ancient times. LOL

Yeah, Fox is pretty good. I think polling is where they exile the smart people.

There still isn't a new poll out from Alabama. Last one was 3/19, and its primary is March 3rd. Nothing from KY too.








If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #19)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:21 PM

22. Good point.

 

It was probably worth bringing up since it's in the calcs.

Yeah, no polling from much of the stretch from now to Super Tuesday outside of the biggies. It's generating a lot of bad data and unrealistic assumptions, not the least of which was giving people the impression that the race was basically over.

This has been one odd cycle and we've barely started.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #7)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 07:52 PM

14. Crap model is right. Model based on Silver's flawed political analysis, little information as so

 

early in the game, and bias. Could be unconscious, but nonetheless.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to emmaverybo (Reply #14)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:13 PM

18. No it was not. . .

 

With the didn't quite compute BS.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to emmaverybo (Reply #14)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 09:04 PM

27. Conventional wisdom? Is that code for Peggy Noonan?

 

'He (Silver) once described Peggy Noonan, apparently without irony, as someone who is “very good at rhetoric and argument.” Noonan, the former Republican speechwriter responsible for the line that lost George H.W. Bush the 1992 election...'


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:57 PM

26. Thing about Biden is...

 

He was the front runner until somebody cast an actual vote.

I'm not putting much stock in polls. We shall see if he can make up ground in the next few primaries. Good for him if he does. He's trying to project confidence and swears he's going to win from here on out. He has too, or he's a goner.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 09:18 PM

30. Age Can Matter

 

My politics line up way more with Bernie than Biden but they are both too old IMO, do we want an 82 year old president by the end of one term? Bloomberg would be 82 as well. Really?

It just seems like a risk to me. Warren would be, at the end of 2 terms, about the age those 3 are right now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 09:24 PM

32. I really hope people will reconsider Biden. Swing state friendly, foreign policy ace, he knows what

 

to do to re establish our agencies. He truly will appoint the best people.

GET BEHIND JOE IF YOU DON'T WANT A MIKE.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to UniteFightBack (Reply #32)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 09:29 PM

34. Yep.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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