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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:06 PM

 

Argument for Bernie Sanders

Maybe its just cause of all the negative talk against Bernie I think we need a pro Bernie argument


One of the biggest arguments against Bernie is he will not pull in the moderate voters & moderate voters that voted for Trump


Did anyone stop and think that if a Bloomberg would win the nomination or even a Biden that while those 2 might pick up more moderate votes and some moderate Republican votes that those 2 could also lose a lot of Bernie supporters and far left leaning supporters. People could stay home.

Having Bernie as the nominee will also generate more young voters. I promise you that if Biden or Bloomberg get the nomination there we be less young voters.

The people that we gain with a Bloomberg could just as be easy to lose same number of people

In the latest general election poll on MSNBC, Bloomberg was beating Trump 51-42 and Bernie was beating Trump 51-42. Those two had the best numbers head to head against Trump.

That 52% is not the same people they are pulling from. There is more than one way to build a path to beating Trump.

Just getting the turnout up in Wisc, Mich, PA and we beat trump. He won those 3 states combined by less than 70,000 votes.

All this talk that Bernie can not win is just chatter. Maybe its a little harder or close. Does not mean Bernie can not win. And I know this much. As a far left leaning person. I rather have Bernie in office than Biden or Bloomberg.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 12 replies Author Time Post
Reply Argument for Bernie Sanders (Original post)
LeftTurn3623 Feb 2020 OP
DanTex Feb 2020 #1
TwilightZone Feb 2020 #2
LeftTurn3623 Feb 2020 #6
TwilightZone Feb 2020 #7
Name removed Feb 2020 #3
TwilightZone Feb 2020 #4
krissey Feb 2020 #5
thesquanderer Feb 2020 #8
TwilightZone Feb 2020 #9
thesquanderer Feb 2020 #10
TwilightZone Feb 2020 #11
thesquanderer Feb 2020 #12

Response to LeftTurn3623 (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:12 PM

1. You are right.

 

There's not any evidence behind the people who say that Bernie can't win. He does the same as the others in the matchup polls. His policies poll very well. And most of the columnists who say that are people like Jennifer Rubin, a Republican, who hates Bernie's policies and wants to prevent him from being president.

There's no way to know exactly who is the most electable, but there's no reason to think Bloomberg would be more than Bernie. In 2016, everyone said the socialist couldn't win and we needed a moderate. We went with the moderate and now we have Trump. We need to learn the lesson now and nominate a progressive that will drive turnout. Trump is an existential threat. We can't afford to nominate another centrist and lose and wait until 2024 to learn the lesson that we need a candidate who will excite the base.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:14 PM

2. The youth argument doesn't reflect the evidence.

 

There's really no evidence that supports it and some that dispels it.

Had it been true, Sanders would have likely much done better in 2016. He did well among young voters, certainly, but they didn't show up in the numbers everyone seemed to be promising.

This cycle, we're hearing similar claims, but his claim about young voter turnout in Iowa turned out to be false.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/sanders-spins-young-voter-turnout-in-iowa/

We've been hearing similar claims for the past five years and they really haven't materialized. Meanwhile, turnout of young voters in 2018 was up significantly, and Sanders wasn't even running.

More likely, young voters are going to the polls more often for reasons other than Sanders. Climate change, health care, gun control, etc. If that's the case, the advantage may not be as large for Sanders as many insist.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #2)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:30 PM

6. One thing

 

Young voters are not spending all night in a caucus


Young voters did come out more in NH
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #6)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:33 PM

7. Still doesn't explain 2018.

 

Youth vote was way up in 2018 over 2016. If they didn't show up for Sanders in 2016, but showed up in 2018 to vote for Democrats in the blue wave, there's no evidence it was because of Sanders.

The increase in youth vote now could be a continuation of the blue wave as it is in other groups. Turnout among all groups was higher in NH, not just the young.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Original post)


Response to Name removed (Reply #3)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:24 PM

4. "She didn't once visit the labor towns."

 

The data says otherwise, unless you don't consider Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Johnstown and Scranton labor towns.

https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/here-are-all-of-donald-trump-s-and-hillary-clinton/article_17eda882-a367-11e6-8367-fb4571a4487f.html
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:29 PM

5. Sanders young vote didn't come out in 2106 for him and they haven't come out in the

 

last two states this primary. His numbers show him weak.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Original post)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:36 PM

8. Yes. It's certainly possible they are equally electable, even if pulling from different voters.

 

Copying from another post of mine:

-----

I wrote about this in my post in the thread at https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287486770

The OP had quoted from an article that said:
Ideologues are elected more often than they used to be. Outsiders are elected more often, too. And the percentage of true swing voters is shrinking, Utych said. So does that mean someone like Sanders is more electable and someone like former Vice President Joe Biden is less electable? Electability here becomes a game of divining which group is more important to winning — swing voters or the partisan base. But that’s no more accurate than trying to estimate how sexist your neighbors are. “Which segment is bigger … there’s not great information on that,” Utych said. “Anything you say is just guessing.”



And in my agreement, I expanded on it this way:

We really don't know which group gets us more votes. Biden {or your moderate of choice} and Sanders (i.e. our two extremes) would both get the vote of virtually every true Dem (certainly when the alternative is Trump). But beyond that, what gets us more votes... appealing to the moderate middle and "reasonable" Republicans? or appealing to the more extreme left partisans and the anti-establishment outsiders who want to shake things up? In 2016, we attempted to appeal to the moderate middle, while Trump went for the highly partisan and anti-establishment group. We lost that one. Something to think about.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #8)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:43 PM

9. "We lost that one."

 

Clinton got 3 million more votes than Trump. If appealing to a higher number of votes is what you're calling for, then Clinton fit the bill.

The problem is: the number of votes is irrelevant. Where those votes come from is what matters. The election will be decided in a handful of states, and it's the match-ups in those states that we should be considering.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #9)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 03:54 PM

10. As you say, "we lost that one" because we didn't get the votes where we needed them.

 

It's possible that with the alternative strategy ("appealing to the more extreme left partisans and the anti-establishment outsiders who want to shake things up" rather than looking to get our winning margin from "the moderate middle and 'reasonable' Republicans" might have won us the votes we needed where we needed them.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #10)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:27 PM

11. And there's zero evidence that Sanders would have done better.

 

In the absence of any vetting by the GOP, we have no clue how Sanders would have done in the GE. He lost the nomination pretty decisively, and anything beyond that is just conjecture.

"appealing to the more extreme left partisans and the anti-establishment outsiders who want to shake things up"

That group is a small fraction of the electorate and pandering to small groups at the expense of the others is not usually a winning strategy. They also should have understood like the rest of us that Trump was an existential threat and acted accordingly.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #11)

Fri Feb 14, 2020, 08:44 PM

12. re: "That group is a small fraction of the electorate"

 

We don't know that! That's the point of my post #8 and the 0riginal article I was referencing.

re: "And there's zero evidence that Sanders would have done better" {in getting the votes where we needed them}.

The evidence may not be conclusive, but it ain't zero either. As has been posted here recently, we lost MI/WI/PA by less than the number of Sanders supporters who voted for someone else in those states (presumably consisting mostly of non-Dems... the independents, the anti-establishment types). I think we still would have gotten the Dem vote we got (do you really think lots of Hillary voters would have taken Trump or some other candidate over Sanders?), but we also would have gotten those "defectors." So yeah, we'll never know for sure, but the evidence is not zero, when you look at the numbers and how the different groups of people voted.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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