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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Thu Feb 13, 2020, 12:54 PM

 

A few observations about the South Carolina primary

I’ve been involved in SC Dem politics since the 70s. This is the first primary since 1992 where I haven’t been actively engaged with a candidate's primary campaign, but I have attended debates, gone to events for several candidates, and frequently speak to other Dem activists around the state.
A few observations:
This is by far the most confused and rapidly changing landscape I have ever seen. Even the 2004 campaign to stop W wasn’t this focused on “who can beat the GOP?” rather than “who is my favorite?”
Had the election been held the Saturday before Iowa, Biden would have won a majority over 50%. I think he would still ride out a first place finish today, but his trajectory is heading down quickly.
The wildcard in the race is Tom Steyer. I get 5-8 mailings from him every week, and my mail carrier says she has never seen a volume of mail like the volume he is paying for to blanket SC.
I had been surprised at how many enthusiastic supporters Yang had while he was in the race, and no one can figure out where they will end up. Many of his folks may be sitting this one out.
Bloomberg is definitely on the rise; his national TV ads are as pervasive as Steyer’s, but he is not on the ballot. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a notable write-in vote, maybe as high as 5%.
Sanders has the most loyal and unwavering base, but if he wins it will be a split decision like Iowa and NH, not a clear victory.
Klobuchar on the rise, Warren running out of steam. More of a reaction to the outcomes and coverage of the two contests so far rather than their policies.

While I have Klobuchar as my DU choice, I have had Biden twice and Warren twice as my favorite. I would vote for her today; in two weeks who knows?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply A few observations about the South Carolina primary (Original post)
SCantiGOP Feb 2020 OP
customerserviceguy Feb 2020 #1
SCantiGOP Feb 2020 #4
customerserviceguy Feb 2020 #5
wishstar Feb 2020 #2
bluewater Feb 2020 #3
SCantiGOP Feb 2020 #6

Response to SCantiGOP (Original post)

Thu Feb 13, 2020, 01:30 PM

1. In your neck of the woods

 

have you seen yard signs and bumper stickers? I'm in the Myrtle beach area, and the only things I've seen are billboards. Steyer is on some of the electronic ones, and so is the Orange Menace. But yard signs and bumper stickers are evidence of grassroots support, unlike billboards and TV ads.

I've heard NY and NJ transplants to SC express kindly thoughts about Bloomberg. I just expected that an early primary state like SC would have a lot more visible signs that an election was near. I only moved here in 2017.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to customerserviceguy (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 13, 2020, 03:05 PM

4. I'm not seeing yard signs or bumper stickers

 

except for the occasional fading Trump sticker, usually on an older model pickup truck.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #4)

Thu Feb 13, 2020, 03:09 PM

5. I've seen

 

one Warren sticker, and one Gabbard yard sign that went up back in October on Highway 17 way outside of Charleston. That's it. I'm a bit disappointed that with about two weeks to go until the primary, nobody seems to be very public in their support of a candidate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to SCantiGOP (Original post)

Thu Feb 13, 2020, 02:03 PM

2. Bloomberg not being on SC ballot should help Biden

 

Where I am in Western N.C. I have heard several Dem friends say they are on fence between Biden, their favorite and Bloomberg who is perceived as surging and heavily advertising on TV here and is on NC ballot with early voting that started today.

But myself, spouse and most Dems I know are waiting to vote to decide on Presidential as well as find out more about all of our primary candidates since there are so many races with many previously unknown candidates.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to SCantiGOP (Original post)

Thu Feb 13, 2020, 02:07 PM

3. Thanks for the eyes on the ground report!

 

Very informative.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to SCantiGOP (Original post)

Thu Feb 13, 2020, 03:14 PM

6. An update from today's news

 

Jim Clyburn, who is the third ranking Dem in the US House and the most influential person in the SC black community, said yesterday that he has decided who he will vote for in the primary, but has not decided whether he will endorse anyone.
Just revealing who he is personally supporting, even without an endorsement, would be enough to have a big impact on the election.

In 2008 he never made an endorsement in the 2008 Clinton-Obama race, but did make a mild rebuke of Clinton days before the election, and many observers said that action likely was a big factor in Obama's almost 30% landslide win. You may remember that Bill Clinton pissed off a lot of people by criticizing Clyburn for this after the election.
And Clyburn never made an endorsement in the 2016 Clinton/Sanders race.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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