Propane Jane has a point.

[pnwmom]

Link to tweet

I see folk on here who’ve spent this entire primary wringing their hands & asking us to keep explaining why Biden’s retained such a large % of Black support, but have the nerve to be issuing his campaign last rites based on how he fared in a batshit caucus in a 3% Black state.

[bluewater]

1. Why can't Joe also win amongst White Voters too?

Yes, African-American support is important and Joe has a strong base there. But why isn't he also winning amongst white voters?

Last time I check white voters are 60% of the Democratic base. Surely that remains important too?

He came in a poor 4th in Iowa. There's no way to dance around that.

[phleshdef]

23. Warren has to answer the same question too I suppose.

[bluewater]

25. Yes. Warren under performed in Iowa. Biden under performed even more so.

Supporters of candidates all need to stay in touch with reality.

I try to do that about Warren.

But, I feel Biden supporters are so used to him being the front runner in the polls, that they are ignoring his campaign sinking slowly under it's own weight.

Warren disappointed me with her semi-strong 3rd place finish in Iowa, she needs to do better.

Biden cratered to a poor 4th place in Iowa, and his supporters need to come to terms with that instead of denying its importance.

[squirecam]

36. You need to face reality too.

Warren was closer to the “crater” Biden was in then the top two. It was either a strong 2 way race, or a 4 way one. It wasn’t 3.

I much preferred your more honest take, that a third place finish for Warren would be “meh”. Now it’s suddenly strong third place?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287468508


The spinning around here needs to stop. From everyone.

I don’t need to see multiple threads asking candidates to drop out after an unrepresentative caucus either. That’s patently absurd.

None of the candidates are done, especially after that poor Iowa debacle.

[bluewater]

37. I have repeatedly said Warren underperformed. But Biden just underperformed more so.

They declare the winner in the Iowa Caucus based on who gets the most delegates.

Here are those delegate totals with 70% of the results in so far:

Buttigieg 11
Sanders 11
Warren 5
Biden 0

So, yes, I suppose 5 is closer to 0 than it is to 11.

But I would still call that a semi-strong 3rd place finish for Warren and a disappointing 4th place finish for Biden if that trend holds.

[squirecam]

38. This is still spin.

Everyone but Pete had a bad night.

Biden finished fourth. I think he gets delegates, but we will see. If he gets 0 it’s even more disappointing.

Sanders lost half his support. More will vote against him then will vote for him.

Warren was not a strong third. She was nearly 10% below the top 2. She will get delegates, because her support was more concentrated in the places where just Warren and Sanders were viable. And the other campaign supporters went to HER rather than Bernie.

Bernie will win NH. I think Warren must finish second. It’s her home region. Biden at least can claim SC as a firewall, though he clearly must win there.

[bluewater]

40. You are spinning yourself it seems. lol

"Sanders lost half his support."

Um, no. Unless you are trying to compare this years multi-candidate contest to 2016's 2 person race.

Sorry, but that's clearly spin.

But thanks for the discussion, it's fun to discuss these things.

[squirecam]

41. Half of Sanders supporters

Believe someone else would be a better president.

For a campaign that claims to be the only one capable of bringing in the “other” voters, yeah it’s pretty bad.

[bluewater]

42. More spin? lol Hey, thanks for the discussion, but I think the productive part is over.

Cheers.

lol

[kcr]

45. How is it spin?

If his supporters went to someone else because there were more choices, he still lost the support. How is it better that he only had more support in 2016 because there was only one other person? If that support was strong and solid, he should have been able to hold on to more of it. Sorry, no spin there, just facts.

[bluewater]

46. its called comparing apples and oranges and looking to past races.

Each race is unique in it's own way.

It's that simple. Trying to spin it differently is, well, spin.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

31. Bernie's great among ALL demographics! Its gotta be Bernie...or else were stuck wit the PEE-resident

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[bluewater]

33. Bernie does have the most balanced support across demographic groups.

Congratulations on your candidate's strong performance in Iowa!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

35. NO DOUBT!! And same to Elizabeth... she would make a wonderful running mate with Bernie!!

Respect!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[left-of-center2012]

2. If a small town mayor can beat Biden ...

If a small town mayor can beat Biden,
how does Biden beat Trump?

[George II]

3. A small town MIDWEST mayor in a small town MIDWEST state with a caucus.

[bluewater]

4. So it's on to New Hampshire!

Joe will beat Pete there, right?

[LanternWaste]

15. NH is Bernie's to win or lose. Its demographics are friendliest to him. Like IA's were

[bluewater]

28. So, Joe will beat Pete in NH? Or will there be more excuses when he does not?

It's not home ground for either Joe or Pete and they are both competing in the moderate lane, so Joe, as the front runner, should beat Pete there, right?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

34. An EIGHT year VP to the most popular President ever, but who can't beat a small-town mayor.

That tells you Joe, a decent guy, is just not a viable candidate whom we should nominate to take on tRumpy The Clown. People can deny that simple fact all they want... sorry, but it won't change the facts on the ground!!

Why it has to be Bernie... or else you're lookin at 4 more years of President Shitstain. Stop accepting CRUMBS... join the revolution!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[left-of-center2012]

6. Yep. Biden got beat ...

Biden got beat by a small town MIDWEST mayor in a small town MIDWEST state with a caucus.

sad

[bluewater]

7. So Biden won't carry Iowa in the general election it seems.

[left-of-center2012]

10. Who won Iowa in 2016?

[bluewater]

11. Trump carried Iowa in 2016, we should try and win it back.

Pete has made a strong case he can do that, performing strong in districts that went from Obama to Trump.

Joe's poor 4th place finish in Iowa seems to indicate he would not win Iowa in the general election.

[Thekaspervote]

13. Who can best trump

Link to tweet

?s=21

[bluewater]

22. Another "who do you think has the best chance" Poll? Ok...

Maybe, just maybe, actual election results trump those polls.

And that as election results continue to come in those polls will change and reflect actual voter reality.

Those polls showed Joe winning Iowa. He came in 4th.

New Iowa Poll Shows Tight Race, With Joe Biden Jumping Ahead

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/us/politics/joe-biden-iowa-democratic-poll.html

Suffolk University/USA Today Poll Shows Biden Leading in Iowa

https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2020/01/27/16/49/suffolk-university-usa-today-poll-shows-biden-leading-in-iowa

Now that actual voting is occurring, actual voting results have more weight than polls.

[LanternWaste]

18. Your ablative absolutes lack relevance and context (and demographics)

Sad, part II




(space provided free of charge below to continue narrative with additional unsupported allegations...)

[left-of-center2012]

44. whatever

[Cha]

48. Actually it's not "said".. I'm happy for Pete!

Last edited Wed Feb 5, 2020, 05:54 PM - Edit history (1)

[LanternWaste]

14. Not unsurprising you ignore demographics. Wouldn't assist your little narrative

[left-of-center2012]

16. :-)

[bluewater]

27. Weren't all the candidates white? And running against the same demographics?

Explain why a disappointing 4th place finish for Biden isn't a disappointing 4th place finish.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

39. Cue the crickets!! chirp chirp!! chirp chirp!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Thekaspervote]

17. Here's who Dems think will be the nominee

Link to tweet

?s=21

[bluewater]

21. Clutching a pre-Iowa poll? Why?

[left-of-center2012]

43. Yep

That was before the caucuses.

[Cha]

47. Because it's one State.. Iowa.. that seems so Important.

Iowa is not diverse and it's Caucuses.

[brooklynite]

5. BREAKING: "Biden concedes Iowa was 'a gut punch'"

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/05/joe-biden-iowa-caucus-gut-punch-110837

[bluewater]

9. It sure was.

My preferred candidate, Warren, finished a semi-strong 3rd place and I am disappointed.

Anyone that supports Biden and ignores his poor 4th place finish is not facing reality.

[Thekaspervote]

19. The numbers are not there for warren..currently she is not even carrying her home state

And she has no path in the south

[bluewater]

20. And yet Warren beat Biden in an actual real election. ;)

Joe's campaign seems to be sinking under it's own weight.

And yes, Warren needs to do better to win, but at least she started better than Joe.

Time will tell.

[Gore1FL]

26. It's too early to call the coroner's on Biden's campaign, but the electable argument is now dead.

You can't come in to IA as a front runner and leave in fourth place and claim to be the safe choice. If he comes in less than second in NH it's a whole different ballgame.

[bluewater]

30. +1000

Spot on.

[AllyCat]

8. Really. No one should drop out after IA.

No one. I am glad Mayor Pete did well, but IA is hardly a bellweather for ANY of these candidates. It's mostly white, low-turnout voting in an odd system that does not mirror the rest of the country's elections well.

Biden would be a great candidate and President.

Move on.

[Gore1FL]

29. I agree with you in spirit.

No one should drop out because of the outcome of IA and I wish no one would until at least Super Tuesday. The issue becomes raising money and staying afloat for those future contests. How IA affects the ability to do that will be what shapes who remains, I think.

[Thekaspervote]

12. 538 prediction: of 57 states and territories sanders wins 15, Or now 14 Biden wins 42

Ia being one of the states as is NH.

[melman]

24. Except she doesn't

Link to tweet

Sanders: 43%
Buttigieg: 15%
Biden: 13%

[pnwmom]

32. Yeah, she does. African Americans are just as affected by the insane caucus problems

as people of any other race who are there.

People who attend caucuses aren't representative of a voter population overall, and caucus outcomes aren't even representative of the people who attend them.