Prediction market odds of brokered convention up to 41%.

[DanTex]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6168/Will-the-Democrats-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2020

Up from low 30s a week ago. Makes sense, now that we've gone from what looked like Bernie vs Biden to a four-horse race with Pete and Bloomberg in there too.

I will say this. If the centrists want to team up to defeat Bernie, it would be wise to do that earlier rather than at the convention. It wouldn't surprise me if the Dem donor class sits down with Pete and Biden at one point to pick one of them and avoid clogging the centrist lane.

But if Bernie has a substantial plurality at the convention, and the brokering results in one of the centrists getting the nomination, that would not be good for unity. Especially if it's superdelegates that end up making the difference.

I will also say, it would be supremely ironic if Bloomberg ends up helping Bernie get nominated by "Nadering" Biden and splitting the centrist vote.

[PatrickforO]

1. I'm not seeing Bloomberg with any delegates.

It looks like Buttigieg and Sanders lead with 11 delegates apiece, followed by Warren with 5. Buttigieg beat Bernie by 1.6 percentage points, according to the NYT.

Biden and Klobuchar earned 15.4% and 12.6% respectively but have no delegates.

[scheming daemons]

2. Bloomberg will get some delegates on Super Tuesday

[PatrickforO]

4. Not many, though. DanTex's post was interesting about a brokered convention, though.

Our party really is splitting. I myself, as I'm sure you know if you've read my posts, am firmly in the progressive wing. I don't consider myself to be particularly liberal, but I'm told that I am.

I have mentioned before I think Biden is a lukewarm candidate whose support is a bit soft. Oh, I like him. And of course will support him if he actually becomes the nominee. I would also cheerfully support Klobuchar should she get the nod. Any of the candidates.

Why? Because defeating Donald Trump is Job #1.

But, daemon, people are pretty stupid. It won't be a progressive who finally wins - the centrists have all the money and they will see to that. We have seen it in the last presidential election year.

And, if that happens, will the progressives be smart enough to actually go out and vote for the centrist to get rid of Trump FIRST and THEN argue policy?

Or will they be foolish and pouty like many were in 2016 and stay home?

Because here's the thing - whatever your ideology, this republic is structured to allow forward progress only with vigorous debate, so no one group always gets their way. Except, lately, the super rich. They get their way entirely TOO much of the time.

Hopefully people in our party, and the general electorate in this country can stop being stupid long enough to poop out the stinking turd that is Trump.

And then, we have to make some real, substantial policy changes to keep a Trump from happening again. Some kind of new Fairness doctrine. Overturning Citizens United. Really reforming the tax codes and the campaign finance laws.

Well, enough rant. We'll see what happens.

[scheming daemons]

5. I was here in 2008.... we were much more divided then. It was toxic.

But by the time we got to September... we were supremely united.

[Zolorp]

3. The media dreams of a brokered convention.

It has been 68 years since the last brokered conventions when Adlai Stevenson and Dwight David Eisenhower both came out of brokered conventions.

[LanternWaste]

6. I'm not surprised the groundwork for Operation Chaos II is already being played.

Just goes to show how much just one, almost irrelevant (albeit dramatic) loss can stick in the craw...

[Kentonio]

7. Absolutely.

If there’s going to be a centrist alignment then do it early or not at all. A brokered convention handing the nomination to anyone other than the delegates leader would kill us in November.