Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumYouGov: Biden 27%, Warren 22%, Sanders 20%, Buttigieg 7%, Bloomberg 3%
Delta over (1 Week/2weeks)
Biden 27% (-2/-2), Warren 22%(+4/+3), Sanders 20%(+2/+3), Buttigieg 7%(-1/-), Bloomberg 3%(-/-1)
First competitive poll for Warren in a month, although YouGov is the "Morning Consult" of polls for Warren.
538 Average as of Jan 08
Biden 27.5%
Sanders 18.2%
Warren 15.6%
Buttigieg 7.2%
Bloomberg 5.2
Yang 3.4%
Klobuchar 3.2%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueMTexpat
(15,348 posts)But I am happy to see this.
In the final analysis though, it is literally up to the voters. AND Liz has a great ground game.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)It is looking like the gold, silver and bronze medals will be awarded among Biden, Warren, and Sanders. This makes sense because Buttigieg's poor showing among African Americans makes it pretty much impossible for him to win the nomination. I suspect that if Biden were not running, that either Klobuchar or Harris would be occupying Biden's "top dog among the moderates" spot, which I think would have been fine also.
Here is what I am wondering:
Other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar, I cannot see a path for anyone else getting the nomination. Stop and Frisk will permanently block out Bloomberg because he'll never get strong African American support. Fear of "insufficient political experience" will keep Yang from the nomination. Distaste for Billionaires will keep Steyer from the top spot, and dislike for Bain Capitol, plus being late to the party, will keep Patrick from the top spot. Booker won't top either Biden or Klobuchar. Bennet has no chance of replacing Biden, or probably even topping Klobuchar or Booker in the moderate lane. Just how long will the people outside of the top 5 hold on?
Bloomberg, Steyer, and Yang may hold on just to the bitter end because they have the money to do it. However, do we Democrats really want to have primaries where up to 10 candidates hold on all the way to the Democratic National Convention in the hope that they will pick up at least one delegate along the way? I am starting to miss the old Super Delegate plan of 2016.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)Klobuchar may drop out with a poor showing in IA. She has put most of her resources into that state. Pete has the backing to stay to the end, but has no chance at the nomination. Even if there is no majority winner, delegates at the convention will not vote for someone with so little support from African Americans. Yang has less personal wealth than I thought - a few millions. He will likely but wind up his ground operations by April, but continue advocating his policy platform
Bloomberg is a puzzle. He backgrounded journalists at the time he entered, that he was worried that Biden would crash and burn. There was no sign of that then, and absolutely none now. Why he would want to split the mainstream / moderate vote is beyond me.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Fiendish Thingy
(15,362 posts)Just sayin, for those who subscribe to inevitability narratives...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided