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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:03 PM

 

Suddenly, Biden leads in Iowa!

By just 0.5% with an MOA greater than 3%, but some would consider it a surge...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply Suddenly, Biden leads in Iowa! (Original post)
beastie boy Jan 2020 OP
getagrip_already Jan 2020 #1
LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #2
beastie boy Jan 2020 #5
redqueen Jan 2020 #3
beastie boy Jan 2020 #6
redqueen Jan 2020 #7
LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #15
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #8
redqueen Jan 2020 #10
LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #12
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #16
LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #18
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #20
redstatebluegirl Jan 2020 #4
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #9
Sloumeau Jan 2020 #11
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #13
LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #14
TidalWave46 Jan 2020 #17
Peacetrain Jan 2020 #19
empedocles Jan 2020 #21
LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #22
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #23
brooklynite Jan 2020 #24
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #25
StevieM Jan 2020 #27
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #28
StevieM Jan 2020 #29
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #30
RandySF Jan 2020 #26

Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:07 PM

1. It's a blitzkrieg!

 



Maybe bernie should attack him some more. It seems to be helping him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:08 PM

2. There will likely be an even division of delegates coming out of Iowa, and the current positions

 

will probably not change. That would be bad for everyone but Biden

"Unless you're the lead dog, the view never changes."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:11 PM

5. I just picturted the view of someone who is not a lead dog.

 

!!!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:09 PM

3. The latest poll shown seems to be from Dec 19

 

What am I missing?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to redqueen (Reply #3)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:13 PM

6. The chart at the link shows standings as of January 2

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Reply #6)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:15 PM

7. But with no new Iowa polls - how had anything changed?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to redqueen (Reply #7)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:26 PM

15. It's explained at the top; it's a moving average, less recent numbers have less weight

 

"Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency"
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to redqueen (Reply #3)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:16 PM

8. No January 2nd...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #8)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:17 PM

10. That's the date of the average.

 

But I see no new polls listed there so - wondering how any update as of anytime since then is possible.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to redqueen (Reply #10)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:23 PM

12. "accounting for each poll's quality, sample size and recency"

 

Silver's algorithms take into account how long ago numbers were, and adjusts for stale data.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #12)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:31 PM

16. You beat me to it...I was going to say that too...the same is true in New Hampshire by the way

 

where it looks like a tie...



Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #16)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:32 PM

18. They do explain their methodology:

 

Differentiator 1: We adjust state polls based on trends in national polls

A hallmark of our general election forecasts, dating all the way back to our first versions in 2008, is what we call a “trend line adjustment.” Basically, in states that haven’t been polled recently, we make inferences about what’s going on there using national polls or polls from other states that have been surveyed recently. If President Trump gained 3 percentage points in national polls, for instance, but North Carolina hadn’t been polled recently, you could probably infer that he’d also gained 3 points, or thereabouts, in North Carolina.

We apply this adjustment for a good reason: Trend-line-adjusted averages have been quite a bit more accurate, historically. That is, once someone does get around to polling North Carolina, it usually turns out that Trump did gain about 3 points. Trend-line-adjusted averages have also been insightful so far this cycle — they anticipated, for instance, that Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s numbers would decline in state polls in November and early December once she began to slump in national polls.

So we’re now applying a slightly simplified version1 of the trend line adjustment to the primaries. (Note that all polling averages you see on our state polling pages reflect this trend line adjustment.) Say that Sen. Cory Booker has surged by 5 points in national polls, for instance, but we haven’t seen a recent poll in Nevada. Our average would assume that he’d also improved his standing by 5 points in Nevada, other things held equal.

There are a few complications: For instance, the adjustment is nonlinear, which can have meaningful effects if a candidate is polling in the low single digits. But in short, the trend line adjustment can have fairly large effects if a state hasn’t been polled much recently. It doesn’t affect our numbers much, conversely, if there are a lot of recent, high-quality polls from that state.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #18)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:40 PM

20. Very interesting...we should see some polls in Iowa soon too. But I think 538 is brilliant and trust

 

the methods.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:10 PM

4. As more candidates drop out and as things become more frightening around the world

 

I think people will look for something known and solid. We don't want to experience another 4 years of whiplash as we run from one pole to the other. The majority of America are in the middle. I know that is not popular here, but it is true.

I like Joe, I think he will make a great President to right some of the wrongs of this nutcase. However I do understand what has been done to our country and our foreign relations will take years to repair.

I will work my tail off to elect a Democrat, but Joe is my first choice by far!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to redstatebluegirl (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:17 PM

9. mine too.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:20 PM

11. I think redqueen is correct. I believe that this is how I saw things on 538...

 

more than a week ago. The small lead is not exactly new or sudden.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Sloumeau (Reply #11)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:24 PM

13. It has moved...My guess is national polls are also figured in...biden is ahead 10 points or more in

 

national polls.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Sloumeau (Reply #11)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:24 PM

14. Older poll numbers are aged out

 

"Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency"
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:32 PM

17. More than a surge according to some.

 

This is more like a blue TidalWave!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:36 PM

19. Alrighty now!!!

 

Just the good news I needed
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:46 PM

21. Certainly a 'surge' by Biden supporters in this thread.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to empedocles (Reply #21)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 12:48 PM

22. :D

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to empedocles (Reply #21)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 01:23 PM

23. Yep...this is good news for Biden.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 01:24 PM

24. It's being reported that there's a Seltzer/DMR poll in the field...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #24)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 01:38 PM

25. Where is it being reported...not doubting you but I don't see it.

 

When will it be out...do you know?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #25)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 02:35 PM

27. I am hoping that there will be a slew of new polls out on Monday.

 

It seems like we are about due. Right now we have no idea where the race stands in the early primary and caucus states because it has been so long.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to StevieM (Reply #27)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 02:41 PM

28. I posted some updates figures...538 has a way to update using national trends and Algorithms...been

 

doing this for years...pretty accurate. And New Hampshire is posted here on this OP also.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287405831
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #28)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 02:44 PM

29. It just doesn't feel the same as new polls.

 

I want the latest batch, but there is no latest batch.

Like I said, I have a feeling that we will get some new ones at the start of next week.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to StevieM (Reply #29)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 02:48 PM

30. I agree...waiting for new polls.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Original post)

Fri Jan 3, 2020, 02:30 PM

26. The holidays are over and people are getting serious.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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