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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 08:27 PM

 

Biden isn't my choice, but I look at data realistically...

...nobody has been gaining on him since October.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply Biden isn't my choice, but I look at data realistically... (Original post)
brooklynite Jan 2020 OP
msongs Jan 2020 #1
brooklynite Jan 2020 #2
dsc Jan 2020 #3
Bleacher Creature Jan 2020 #4
TidalWave46 Jan 2020 #7
Lexee Jan 2020 #13
Bleacher Creature Jan 2020 #14
Lexee Jan 2020 #15
MFM008 Jan 2020 #5
FloridaBlues Jan 2020 #6
brooklynite Jan 2020 #9
ritapria Jan 2020 #8
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #10
brooklynite Jan 2020 #11
dsc Jan 2020 #16
handmade34 Jan 2020 #12
Algernon Moncrieff Jan 2020 #17
Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #18

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 08:30 PM

1. the our revolution crowd keeps chasing joe tho nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 08:33 PM

2. Yes, but "the our revolution crowd" is half the size it was in 2016....

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 08:40 PM

3. If there isn't an earthquake of some sort, he has it

 

and given what is happening tonight, foreign policy appears to be taking over and Biden will be helped by that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 08:48 PM

4. My hesitation on Biden has always been about his weaknesses as a candidate.

 

I've never once doubted his character or his competence, so I won't hesitate to go all in if he's the nominee.

That said, at some point it's going to be impossible to chalk up his resilience in the primary solely to name recognition. He's clearly doing something right - or is simply the right candidate in this time and place - in which case he'll have clearly eliminated any concerns that I previously had about him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Bleacher Creature (Reply #4)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 09:20 PM

7. I like the way you worded this...

 

And agree with all of it. I didn’t jump on the Biden train until recently. I don’t know if his VP years gave him a top off of confidence or if he just did a good job of creating his own importance by holding off and creating clamor and then meeting expectations. A bit of both?

Either way, there are a couple of candidates in the primary I would very enthusiastically support in the general. Very few times have I been able to say that. Maybe Trump is making me soft.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Bleacher Creature (Reply #4)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 10:35 PM

13. I am still waiting to see if some of our solid Dems make a move.

 

I have the same trepidation as you and would prefer another candidate. I am not done hoping yet, for a Democrat to make a move. But, I will solidly get behind Biden if he is the nominee.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Lexee (Reply #13)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 11:03 PM

14. I'd love to see Klobuchar make a move.

 

She checks all the boxes and is sharp as hell. I think she'd be a fantastic candidate would do great in a debate with Trump (who'd probably find a way to back out).
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Bleacher Creature (Reply #14)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 11:04 PM

15. Exactly and straight with you, I feel the same with Warren, lol.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 08:53 PM

5. I still love Warren

 

but I moved back to undecided because if Biden is the only one gaining on maggot that's my one issue.
Beating him is the one most vital issue.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 09:19 PM

6. Perhaps your starting to believe he has high powered people around him to help USA get back on track

 

Where all other candidates seemed to be lacking. His foreign policy is solid. I really believe after all is said and done he will be our nominee because of trust. I have felt this long before he entered. Can understand your feeeling.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to FloridaBlues (Reply #6)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 09:50 PM

9. My problem with Biden was never his competence as President...

 

...it was his competence as a Presidential candidate. Trump is a chaos candidate, and I don't see Biden as responding to the unexpected quickly enough.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 09:45 PM

8. If you paid heed to the national polling at this point in every cycle

 

you wouldn't have clue about what was about to happen ….Remember 1984 ?... National Polling : Mondale 45% Glenn 15% Gary Hart 4 %... What happened ? ….. Hart finished a distant second in Iowa and pulled off a huge upset in NH ...Soon thereafter Hart and Mondale were in a dead heat in the National polling …..The national polling doesn't amount to a hill of beans until the results from Iowa and NH are in …. Same for John Kerry , Barack Obama , Bernie Sanders , Jimmy Carter in 1976 … They were all miles behind and yet went on to win the nomination, or came close to doing so , because they did well in Iowa and NH … .
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to ritapria (Reply #8)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 10:02 PM

10. I don't think Iowa and / or New Hampshire matter much this year for Biden...yeah if Sanders

 

and/or Warren do badly, they are toast as Biden will go on to super Tuesday with the wind at his back...but both are small white states and in the modern Democratic Party, they just don't matter as much as they used to...and Biden doesn't have to prove he can win...he already did twice. Sanders and Warren and Buttigieg are expected to do well so it matters to them. I would say if Warren and Buttigieg don't do well, they are done. Sanders can hang on and probably will but he won't be the nominee.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to ritapria (Reply #8)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 10:04 PM

11. I'm not looking at the polls "at this point in time"

 

Look at the model. Biden and Sanders have been static since the race began. What is going to change that dynamic?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to ritapria (Reply #8)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 11:10 PM

16. I am not old enough to speak of Gary Hart

 

but as to the rest. Saddam Hussein got captured and that killed the anti war candidate who was Dean. Kerry was the beneficiary. Obama only had to show black voters he could win a white state, which he did, and blacks voted for the candidate they preferred. Sanders didn't win the nomination, nor did he even come close. He was eliminated on Super Tuesday. He won only two primaries (MI and NH) with the rest of his wins being caucuses. If the press hadn't hated Hillary so much he would have been covered as the also ran he was. I am also too young to speak of Carter.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 10:25 PM

12. Biden is my choice, (because) I look at data realistically...

 

I look at the larger picture, with much pragmatism... my ideology does not drive my choice for candidate

my desire to- by whatever means- to get the United States back on track is all that drives me
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 11:27 PM

17. I take your point, but here is the counterargument

 

RCP Average 12/8 - 12/31
Biden 28.3
Sanders 19.1
Warren 15.1
Buttigieg 8.3
Bloomberg 4.8
Klobuchar 3.5
Yang 3.5
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 1.8
Steyer 1.5
Castro 1.2
Delaney 0.5
Bennet 0.4
Spread Biden +9.2

I'd observe that Sanders and Warren combine to poll better than Biden. One of them has to lose, and if one drops, the other is likely to inherit 99% of the other's vote. I agree they split the progressive wing, and the longer they both stay in, the better Joe's chances are. But if one drops early, Joe will have his hands full. It's an open question where Mayor Pete' s votes go. i suspect Klobuchar voters will split between Joe and Warren.

Also, Bloomberg went from 0 to 4.8 in a hurry. He should be watched closely. He takes votes from Joe, IMO.

All of the Billionaires, Bernie and Mayor Pete are currently buying a lot of Iowa TV time.

Also, there are those pesky rumors of the Russian photos of Joe in a wine cave.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Algernon Moncrieff (Reply #17)

Thu Jan 2, 2020, 11:59 PM

18. No, Clinton supporters won't support Sanders IMHO and there are fair number who support Warren.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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