DU Primaries Report, December 2019: Farewell To Harris

[EarlG]

Welcome to the ninth monthly DU Primaries Report, based on the ongoing candidate preferences of DU members right here in the Democratic Primaries forum!

How the Candidate Rankings board works:

• Displayed percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number, so a candidate displayed at (for example) 10% will have an actual percentage in the range of 9.50% to 10.49%.


• Candidates below 0.5% are displayed at 0%. Candidates with no supporters at all are marked with a dash.


• For the purposes of the DU Primaries Report, only candidates who have an actual percentage of at least 1% are included.

Previously on the DU Primaries Report

November 2019: Comings And Goings
October 2019: Ups And Downs
September 2019: So Trump Is Getting Impeached
August 2019: I'll Just Get My Coat
July 2019: Look, a Squirrel!
June 2019: Warren Takes Charge
May 2019: Steady As She Goes
April 2019: Let's Get This Party Started!

Where the candidates stand this month

I think it's safe to say that Kamala Harris's exit from the race on December 3 was quite a shock to everyone, as illustrated by this text exchange between myself and Skinner:



Harris was clearly the most high-profile candidate to drop out so far (sorry Tim Ryan, but you know it's true) and was holding down a comfortable fourth place here on DU with 7.41% support at the time of her exit. That said, it was pretty obvious that her trajectory had been pointing downward for some time.

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, all-time



When we started logging these numbers at the end of March, Harris held a commanding lead with 14.85%, almost double Joe Biden's second place 7.97% -- although to be fair, Biden did not officially announce his candidacy until about four weeks later. You can see their positions flip almost immediately after Biden got into the race, and Harris's percentage of support declined almost every month after that.

So after she dropped out, where did Harris's supporters go?

Candidates above 1% actual support, including Undecided, December 2019



The answer is clear: most of Harris's supporters did not select another candidate, and remain Undecided. Undecided took a huge leap from 38.28% at the start of the month, to 44.34% when the numbers were logged after Harris dropped out, and remains at 44.05% today.

However, if one candidate did receive any benefit from Harris's exit, that candidate was -- you guessed it -- Joe Biden. Biden's numbers definitely took a bump at the start of December, climbing almost a full percentage point from 13.42% on December 2 to 14.24% on December 6. Biden closes out December on 14.63%.

No other candidate appeared to receive a significant boost after Harris dropped out. Elizabeth Warren started December on 21.39% and declined slightly -- while remaining comfortably in first place -- to 21.27%. Pete Buttigieg also lost a little ground, falling from 6.08% at the beginning of the month to 5.89% at the end.

Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang stayed above the 1% mark in December -- Klobuchar moving up from 1.54% to 1.68% and Yang holding steady from 1.11% to 1.14%.

And there was another candidate on the move in December -- Bernie Sanders. Sanders started December on 7.84% and finishes half a percentage point up at 8.34%. This does not seem to be related to Kamala Harris dropping out -- he didn't receive a significant bump in the first week of December -- but Bernie has been slowly gaining ground for a while now.

Meanwhile, with all the hoopla surrounding Kamala Harris, let's not overlook two other candidates who bit the dust this month -- Steve Bullock and Joe Sestak. A round of applause for all three, although perhaps a slightly quieter round of applause for Bullock and Sestak who ended their candidacies with 0.1% and 0% respectively.



Next month's predictions

Last month I predicted that Cory Booker and Julian Castro might be the next candidates to leave, and I was dead wrong. Let's face it, I'm terrible at this! But I think it's probably safe to say that with the Iowa Caucuses just over a month away, it seems highly likely that anyone still in it at this point is going to still be in it at the end of January. February, however, is going to be a bloodbath.

The next report will take place on Friday, January 31 -- just three days before the Iowa Caucuses. Thanks for reading!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Thanks for your thorough and very detailed report, my dear EarlG!

And thank you again for including the text messages exchanged between you and Skinner! His language did surprise me quite a lot, lol!

I look forward to your later reports.

[MoonRiver]

2. I doubt I'll pick another candidate until the primary is decided.

To me, Kamala was the perfect candidate, but obviously many others didn't agree.

[cp]

3. Thank you, EarlG!

Appreciate your work mightily.

[cwydro]

4. I was surprised when she dropped out.

I like her a lot.

[TwilightZone]

5. It seems like there's been an influx of new members in the past month or two.

For the candidates on the rise here on DU, I'd be curious to know what percentage of their bump can be attributed to new DU members. That's probably a little deeper than the data goes (or the data manager wants to go - ), but it would be interesting.

Thanks for the update, EarlG.

[Ruby the Liberal]

6. Anyone sensing Biden/Harris?

If thats where we end up, I'd gladly vote for that ticket.

[bearsfootball516]

8. I could very well see that or Biden/Abrams

Having her on the ticket would give us a legitimate shot to flip Georgia, considering how close she got last year.

[ismnotwasm]

7. Yeah.

Ouch

[Quackers]

9. Here's to hoping your stock predictions pan out better than your primary predictions

And a happy New Year!

Sorry, I couldn’t help but give you a little ribbing.

[Steven Maurer]

10. As a Kamala supporter, I was a bit surprised to find my status had changed to undecided by itself

Not that there is anything wrong with that, mind you.

[wendyb-NC]

11. Thanks so much fir this report EarlG

It is very informative, and interesting. Looking forward to the months ahead.

[Agschmid]

12. Kick, thanks!

[Towlie]

13. You sound like Steve Kornacki

Just sayin'.