Biden's dominance with AA voters, and Sanders with Millennials, makes little difference in the GE.

Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:34 AM

Indykatie (3,445 posts)

1. Premise Here is Wrong IMO.

A likely voter model will look much different in the General election for Biden and Bernie. Bernie's strength lies with folks who have the lowest voter turn out rate. Biden's strength over Bernie with the 65+ and AA voters can't be overcome by Bernie's strength with young voters. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to Indykatie (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:36 AM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

2. And the error in the polling methodology is?

If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #2)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:47 PM

AdamGG (1,074 posts)

23. turnout

I don't think the polls accurately predict the levels at which different demographics will actually show up and vote; it measures their preference. Did any polls model how much higher AA turnout was for Obama than it was in 2004 and 2000? Maybe they did, but my understanding was that they didn't. That's why Romney's people thought the election was closer than it was. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to Indykatie (Reply #1)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 06:17 PM

Hortensis (55,024 posts)

36. We know it's rubbish. AA alone were 12% of all voters in 2012,

and the vast majority are Democrats and voted Democrat. For obvious reasons. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:39 AM

David__77 (21,447 posts)

3. The variation across demographic groups is striking.

... If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to David__77 (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:42 AM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

4. Biden supporters consistently underestimate how (relatively) unpopular their candidate is

with younger voters. At the time of this poll, 6% less 18-34yrs would vote Dem with Biden as nominee. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:52 AM

David__77 (21,447 posts)

7. I think that there's a lot of group compartmentalization going on.

While what you point to may be true, it may also be true that another candidate would fare worse among older voters, for instance. The old formula of balancing a ticket to appear to different constituencies may be important in this election. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to David__77 (Reply #7)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:56 AM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

9. Yes. I get hung up on numbers.

What this result illustrates to me is the strength of the Democratic position. Two very different candidates, both well placed int the GE. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #9)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:58 AM

David__77 (21,447 posts)

11. I hope that those strengths can be combined and expanded upon somehow.

... If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 11:00 AM

Act_of_Reparation (8,818 posts)

12. Shocking, isn't it?

It's almost like young people prefer candidates who can identify with them, and vice versa. Maybe if we demean and deride them a little more, they'll change their tune. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 12:44 PM

Demsrule86 (65,341 posts)

19. Sanders would be president today if younger voters were reliable and voted.

They don't. We need to have a candidate who can win in swing states...Biden can do this...Plus Sanders is not popular with other Demographics and independents...he will be branded a socialist( not saying he is one...I understand what a Democratic socialist is) and we will lose. The UK election was a warning to us...don't run to the left. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:45 AM

ismnotwasm (40,911 posts)

5. Whoa

Tell Black voters that. Biden dominates male AND female black voters. They know their worth. To dismiss this is very short sighted IMO If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to ismnotwasm (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:48 AM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

6. To dismiss the 6% of 18-34 yrs Biden sheds

at the time of this poll is a blind spot as well, but the differences are marginal. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #6)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 11:43 AM

dansolo (5,376 posts)

14. If that 6% chooses to not vote

Then screw them. If they will only vote for someone who promises to give them free stuff, then they are selfish assholes. And if they actually end up voting for Trump, then they were never really going to vote for Sanders or Warren anyway. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to dansolo (Reply #14)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 11:51 AM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

15. "they are selfish assholes"

That's the way to GOTV Do you reserve the same venom for older voters who would not pull the lever for Sanders, for is that entirely justified? If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #6)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 12:47 PM

Demsrule86 (65,341 posts)

20. If those voters don't vote for the nominee no matter who it is...than fuck them. We will have to

wait until they are willing to act like adults. Trump gets another judge they are fucked just as we are...and I don't think this group votes with us no matter what. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:53 AM

beastie boy (5,300 posts)

8. Your take is spot on the sentiment of most Dems. The numbers you cited only strengthen the sentiment

And the contest between Biden and Sanders (and Warren) will be over after the Primaries. In Generals, the contest will be between the winner and Trump, and the Democratic vote will no longer be divided between Biden and Sanders. At least, that's the plan. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Reply #8)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:58 AM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

10. Agreed.

If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 11:32 AM

Loki Liesmith (4,596 posts)

13. Can't really disagree

Obviously I think Biden is the best candidate but I think most anyone can win this. Maybe not Gabbard. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

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Response to Name removed (Reply #16)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 12:16 PM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

17. ?

Whites - Biden 44%, Trump 50% If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #17)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 12:37 PM

lunasun (21,646 posts)

18. And Black vs White voters as a whole 👀👀

so different for trump If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #17)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 12:50 PM

Demsrule86 (65,341 posts)

21. Which is terrible for the GOP...they have to get more of the white vote than that...and I don't

think they will suburban women some GOP and some independent...some Democrats of course gave us the house...they don't like Trump but if we have a candidate that is too far left, they won't turn out and we could lose the house too...and kiss the Senate goodbye. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Reply #17)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 10:30 PM

ecstatic (30,598 posts)

22. That's quite high. If I recall correctly, democrats just need around

39% of the white vote to win, since literally every other demographic leans Democratic. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Reply #17)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 04:55 PM

dsc (51,561 posts)

25. If that held up we would be golden

Clinton lost whites 37 to 57 in 2012 Obama lost them 39 to 59. If Biden only lost whits by 6 that would be amazing. Heck even 12 would be a vast improvement. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to dsc (Reply #25)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:08 PM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

27. 44% of whites voted Dem in the midterms

If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #27)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:17 PM

dsc (51,561 posts)

30. If Biden kept his 44

with the GOP getting 56 he would only do two points worse than our best US House election in terms of popular vote in decades. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to dsc (Reply #30)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:24 PM

dsc (51,561 posts)

32. His 44% would beat or tie every Democrat since Carter

and would tie Clinton's 94 reelection. A 12 point margin would be better than all but Clinton (who had Perot drawing a non trivial number of white voters) it would tie Obama in 2008 (our best two person election since 1964). In short, it would be huge. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2016/02/05/130647/what-about-white-voters/ If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to dsc (Reply #32)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:45 PM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

34. In 1996 Perrot won 9% of whites.

Without him, you could project Bill to something like 48%. For all the criticism of the Clinton administration's move towards the center, it is forgotten just what he faced after 1994. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #34)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 06:12 PM

dsc (51,561 posts)

35. He hurt his percent in all likelihood but almost certainly helped his margin

His margin in 96 was -5, which was the best since Carter (-4) I think he would have lost the white vote by at least 7 or 8. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to dsc (Reply #35)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 06:27 PM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

37. Um ...

I'm going by the Roper Center numbers (Whites) Dole 46%, Clinton 44%, Perot 9% https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-1996 If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #37)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 06:59 PM

dsc (51,561 posts)

38. yeah so his margin was only -2

without Perot I think it would have been more like -5 or -6. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Dec 27, 2019, 11:50 PM

Lexblues (180 posts)

24. God help us if we have to depend on young people voting

in order to beat Trump. Young people are so fickled and if we have to depend on young people or Trump wins, then we're screwed. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to Lexblues (Reply #24)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:17 PM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

29. I didn't hear too many complaints in 2012

When Obama won 18-29 yrs 60 / 37. Romney won 65+ yrs 56 / 44. If young voters do not turn out in force for our nominee we will certainly lose. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #29)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 10:00 PM

Lexblues (180 posts)

39. Obama got the AA vote out in force too

Something that Warren nor Bernie can do. We can't win without significant black vote, especially in the rust belt states and south. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:03 PM

jberryhill (62,444 posts)

26. "Biden's dominance with AA voters" is just such bizarre wording

While I certainly understand the meaning, the imagery which those words evoke is just a little odd. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #26)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:12 PM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

28. Yikes - I agree

I originally used the word strength. Sorry everyone. If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #28)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:18 PM

jberryhill (62,444 posts)

31. It's the George Wallace wing of the party who are now Trump supporters

If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #31)

Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:29 PM

crazytown (7,277 posts)

33. And in 1994, 26 years after his presidential run,

the Dixiecrats finally crossed the Rubicon If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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