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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:18 PM

 

Three new polls out today

Biden is up by 12, 8, and 5 in the three polls. Bernie in second in each one. Bloomberg at 5, 5, and 6. Biggest news is that Buttigieg is way down in all of them.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

43 replies, 2037 views

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Reply Three new polls out today (Original post)
Polybius Dec 2019 OP
madaboutharry Dec 2019 #1
Polybius Dec 2019 #12
LeftTurn3623 Dec 2019 #2
StevieM Dec 2019 #10
Quackers Dec 2019 #19
Joinfortmill Dec 2019 #35
Quackers Dec 2019 #37
beastie boy Dec 2019 #3
StevieM Dec 2019 #11
Polybius Dec 2019 #39
Tiggeroshii Dec 2019 #4
SCantiGOP Dec 2019 #5
Tiggeroshii Dec 2019 #7
OilemFirchen Dec 2019 #16
Tiggeroshii Dec 2019 #20
Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #27
Tiggeroshii Dec 2019 #34
Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #22
Horizens Dec 2019 #6
Tiggeroshii Dec 2019 #8
George II Dec 2019 #18
Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #23
George II Dec 2019 #17
Tiggeroshii Dec 2019 #21
Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #25
Polybius Dec 2019 #40
StevieM Dec 2019 #9
TryLogic Dec 2019 #15
Hortensis Dec 2019 #13
Tiggeroshii Dec 2019 #24
LanternWaste Dec 2019 #42
Tiggeroshii Dec 2019 #43
Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #26
Hortensis Dec 2019 #30
Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #32
Hortensis Dec 2019 #36
Polybius Dec 2019 #38
totodeinhere Dec 2019 #31
Sloumeau Dec 2019 #14
Gothmog Dec 2019 #28
onetexan Dec 2019 #29
Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #33
Gothmog Dec 2019 #41

Response to Polybius (Original post)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:21 PM

1. I see Buttigieg maintaining 4th place nationally where he

 

has been for some time and I see him beating Trump by 5 points.

I guess we all don't see the same news.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to madaboutharry (Reply #1)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:59 PM

12. I see that too

 

But I also see him down in all three polls. Sorry if that hurts, but itís true. My candidate is down too. It sucks.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:22 PM

2. How is Pete way down?

 

Hasnt he always been polling national around 10? The numbers show he is pretty much the same place?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:55 PM

10. He was starting to go up higher in the national polls, but Bloomberg is hurting him.

 

Last edited Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:49 PM - Edit history (1)

It seems like Buttigieg voters are the most likely to defect to Bloomberg, and that is showing up in the polls.

My BIL says he is planning to vote for Bloomberg, but he also likes Mayor Pete a lot. Hopefully if Buttigieg wins Iowa and New Hampshire that will lead many Bloomberg-leaners to switch over to Mayor Pete.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to StevieM (Reply #10)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:10 PM

19. I'll back Biden if Pete falls. No way will I support Bloomberg. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Quackers (Reply #19)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 08:35 PM

35. You're kidding right?

 

If you want to help save our Republic, vote Blue.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Joinfortmill (Reply #35)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 10:28 PM

37. Quit trying to bait people. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:24 PM

3. Curious. I expected Buttigieg to get a bit of a kick after the departure of Harris.

 

It appears that no candidate benefited from this event. Nor did Bloomberg's entry into the race affect the candidates' standings.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Reply #3)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:57 PM

11. I disagree. I think Bloomberg is taking votes disproportionately from Buttigieg.

 

And he is impacting his ability to maintain his momentum.

Pete needs to recognize this and start reminding people that Bloomberg supported Bush/Cheney in 2004.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Reply #3)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 11:41 PM

39. I think if Bloomberg ever makes it into the debates, he'll hurt Biden

 

They are very similar, and Bloomberg's money is no joke.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:27 PM

4. Bernie is going steady and Biden will need to win NH and IA to keep his ever narrowing lead!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:29 PM

5. He will be competitive in NH and Iowa

 

And then win SC by about 30 points.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #5)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:31 PM

7. That would be something!

 

Last edited Tue Dec 10, 2019, 08:47 PM - Edit history (1)

(Inaccurate information has been removed)
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #7)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:06 PM

16. Y'know what would be something?

 

If you could cite even one poll backing up your assertion.

Standing by...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #16)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:12 PM

20. It would be!

 

Because I cant.

I thought I saw that somewhere and am thoroughly mistaken. Likely mixed it up with NV.

He has a 19 point RCP average right now which is down from a 30-35 point lead in September, it looks like. I still dont think that will hold steady unless he wins at least one of the other states, too.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #7)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:31 PM

27. Umm don't know where those number came from... more like 20+

 

#NEW South Carolina @YouGov Poll:

Biden 40%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg11%
Warren 10%
Steyer 7%
Gabbard 5%
Yang 3%
Booker/Klobuchar 2%
Delaney/Patrick/Bloomberg 1%

RCP average for SC
Biden 35.3
Warren 16.3
Sanders 12.8
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #27)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 07:58 PM

34. Nevada.

 

They came from Nevada...


Sorry.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #5)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:16 PM

22. Indeed he will definitely be competitive in IA... IA & NH are going to play a very small roll in

 

The bigger picture
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:31 PM

6. Hogwash

 

History clearly demonstrates that Biden doesn't need to win either Iowa or NH to capture the nomination.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Horizens (Reply #6)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:33 PM

8. He would need one to stay strong for super tuesday.

 

Otherwise the lead will be given to somebody else for the time until the next contest. History indicates that there is a strong advantage given to early state winners and momentum gained from those wins. Right now hes barely pulling a 9% lead in the only state that he is banking on to keep him going for super tuesday.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Horizens (Reply #6)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:07 PM

18. See post #17

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Horizens (Reply #6)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:19 PM

23. Right!! He will get some delegates out of IA and probably some out of NH but SC and NV

 

Are going to clarify things for him.

And no he doesnít need either to win, as he will make a clean sweep of the south.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:06 PM

17. Let's go through the four early states:

 

Iowa, 41 Delegates

Biden 16.3, 9 delegates
Warren 17.7, 9 delegates
Sanders 18.3, 10 delegates
Buttigieg 24.0, 13 delegates

New Hampshire, 24 Delegates

Biden 14.3, 0 delegates
Warren 13.7, 0 delegates
Sanders 17.0, 11 delegates
Buttigieg 20.0, 13 delegates

Nevada, 36 Delegates

Biden 29.3, 15 delegates
Warren 20.0, 11 delegates
Sanders 19.3, 10 delegates
Buttigieg 7.3, 0 delegates

South Carolina, 36 Delegates

Biden 35.3, 37 delegates
Warren 16.3, 17 delegates
Sanders 12.8 10 delegates
Buttigieg 6.5, 0 delegates

Net results - Biden 61, Warren 37, Sanders 31, Buttigieg 26 - This is with Biden "losing" both Iowa and New Hampshire.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #17)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:16 PM

21. It is not likely there would be no shift following IA and NH before sc and nv.

 

History indicates that the winners of multiple early states effects the choices in later early states.


It is also not likely that the numbers dont shift before IA
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to George II (Reply #17)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:20 PM

25. Great breakdown... the numbers tell the story. Following Super Tuesday it will be very clear

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #17)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 11:45 PM

40. Those first two are old polls

 

Buttigieg doesn't have anywhere near that much support now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 05:52 PM

9. I think Bloomberg is stalling Mayor Pete's momentum.

 

Seriously, it is insane how many people are considering him, given that he supported Bush/Cheney in 2004.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to StevieM (Reply #9)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:05 PM

15. Perhaps Bloomberg is looking for leverage to push persons other than Bernie or Liz.

 

Gotta fight for the billionaires, big banks, etc.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:01 PM

13. Good, but I admit I'm worried about what Sanders rising instead of

 

collapsing as people know him more, and others moving up, could indicate. Our enemies foreign and abroad are formidable.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #13)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:20 PM

24. It means he will win. :)

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #24)

Wed Dec 11, 2019, 02:32 PM

42. Just like last time... when his numbers were much better.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LanternWaste (Reply #42)

Wed Dec 11, 2019, 02:43 PM

43. No.

 

Every time is different.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #13)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:24 PM

26. Here's some interesting stats on bernie... he really isn't doing that well

 

Sanders got 40% of Democratic Primary vote in '16, he's running half that this time. Even if he got 100% of Warren's support, he'd still be behind his '16 vote total. thehill.com
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #26)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 07:30 PM

30. Thanks. People should be more aware this time,

 

as that does reassuringly suggest. But still, to even be in contention above Democratic candidates at this point, instead of long settled into his basement of mostly his die-hard "no one but Sanders" supporters seems suspicious. What's causing his numbers to rise again, and why did his donations continue to rise before as his support dropped?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #30)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 07:43 PM

32. Just MHO I think he's regained some EW followers. All in all he still really isn't doing that well

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #32)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 09:04 PM

36. Thanks. Good to hear since I tend to avoid watching him.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #26)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 11:38 PM

38. Not the same thing this time around

 

In 2016 there were no serious challengers to Hillary. The entire Party wanted her to get the nomination. We do this sometimes, and it never ends well. Gore also received no serious challengers, because the Party thought it was "his turn." A crowded Primary is democratic.

In a crowded Democratic Primary (or Republican) like us this year and them in 2016, the first place winner doesn't even get anywhere near 40%, let alone the second.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #13)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 07:39 PM

31. Maybe I am misunderstanding you. But are you suggesting that Sanders rising is a

 

result of our foreign enemies? If so I call BS on that. Bernie is not beholden to foreigners and i resent that implication.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:02 PM

14. Polybius, thank you so much for posting this! :)

 



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:36 PM

28. Here are some interesting polling results

 


?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #28)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 06:55 PM

29. K&R WOOHOO!!!

 

Go Joe!!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #28)

Tue Dec 10, 2019, 07:44 PM

33. Do da... yippie skippie!!!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Wed Dec 11, 2019, 12:02 AM

41. 538 Iowa polling average with tonight's Emerson poll included:

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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