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Undecided 44%
Elizabeth Warren21%
Joe Biden14%
Bernie Sanders8%
Pete Buttigieg6%

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 06:02 PM

 

There's Only One Way the Patrick and Bloomberg Campaigns Make Sense

Last edited Wed Nov 20, 2019, 07:19 PM - Edit history (1)

FWIW, I think Pareene is very likely wrong about the source of (but not the real reason for) Patrick's candidacy.

I suspect Mitt Romney and Bain Capital had rather more to do with it than the Obamas.
He's spot-on about Bloomberg, imo.

https://newrepublic.com/article/155789/theres-one-way-patrick-bloomberg-campaigns-make-sense


... Still, the Obama camp has been encouraging Patrick to run for years presumably because they think he would be a great candidate—in a general election. Patrick, too, is not the sort to leave his elite private sector job solely to screw over Elizabeth Warren on behalf of his friends from the Obama White House. He seemingly plans to actually run for president with the intention of winning the presidency. But the inescapable fact is that his campaign does not make any logical sense as a conventional primary campaign.

Finally, let us consider Michael Bloomberg, whose bid makes even less sense. While he is able to completely self-fund a presidential campaign, giving him an advantage over Patrick (who is regular-rich, not plutocrat-rich), the former New York City mayor is skipping Iowa and New Hampshire and purchasing generically anti-Trump Facebook ads instead of Facebook ads promoting a Michael Bloomberg candidacy. He has apologized for stop and frisk, yes, but he is broadly doing things to make himself seem acceptable to Democratic voters, not (yet) to convince them to support Michael Bloomberg in enough primaries and caucuses to give him the nomination.

Bloomberg also very much wants to be president, and has only declined to run in the past because he was smart enough to know he couldn’t win as an independent and probably couldn’t win either party’s nomination the traditional way. How could Bloomberg win, then? If he was handed the nomination at a brokered convention. I know that invoking that term is going to touch off a wave of groans from people who, every election cycle, read countless pieces of glorified politics fanfic from pundits predicting brokered conventions that simply do not happen anymore. I said from the start that this was going to be annoying.

But this is the only way these two late entrants make any sense. The Patrick and Bloomberg campaigns are not mere long shots, or attempts to harm Sanders or Warren on behalf of the moderates. They are calculated bets on a brokered convention. These are well-connected people at the highest levels of Democratic Party politics (despite his independent status, Bloomberg has always surrounded himself with Democratic campaign veterans and aides), making it clear that they think there is a real chance that the nomination will be completely up for grabs next July...



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to friendly_iconoclast (Original post)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 06:12 PM

1. well that's the biased opinion of one person on a planet of 7 billion nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to friendly_iconoclast (Original post)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 06:13 PM

2. Both are running due to two concurrent fears of the highly centrist donor class.

 

1. They fear Biden is slipping and will lose the nomination
2. They fear their taxes will increase because whoever defeats Biden will be to his left.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 06:14 PM

4. Yes to 1... But as to #2

 

They are worried a progressive will loose to Trump.

That's a real, valid fear.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to zaj (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 06:19 PM

7. No, they prefer Biden over 45 but they prefer 45 over a progressive due to taxes.

 

They are not fearful of 45 winning re-election.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to zaj (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 06:26 PM

8. Why is an extreme right Trump more electable than a traditional Democrat?

 

Especially when millions of NEW voters are now engaged and are predominately progressive.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to blm (Reply #8)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 07:14 PM

11. I know!

 

This particular rationale completely floors me!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #11)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 07:43 PM

12. I call bullshit on the 'only a centrist can win' propaganda

 

that the media helps to catapult.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to blm (Reply #12)

Thu Nov 21, 2019, 06:12 AM

14. You'll get NO

 

argument from me on that!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to zaj (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 07:07 PM

9. They already think Donnie's goose is cooked, which is actually heartening when you think about it

 

This is as described: A ploy against Sanders and Warren
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to friendly_iconoclast (Original post)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 06:13 PM

3. They are running in case of a brokered convention...

 

...imo.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to friendly_iconoclast (Original post)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 06:15 PM

5. Yup

 

I said this after Patrick announced. They are both in it at either the Party's behind the scenes suggestion or because they believe that the convention will come to that.

I don't see it happening that way, but time will tell.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Andrew Yang

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Response to friendly_iconoclast (Original post)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 06:18 PM

6. We don't yet know whether Bloomerg will run.

 

My gut is telling me that he will ultimately decide to skip the race.

Patrick may not last beyond the New Hampshire primary, if he even makes it that far.

Most Democratic primary voters are happy with the field as it stands now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to friendly_iconoclast (Original post)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 07:12 PM

10. FWIW, Bloomie has long had it in for Warren. From 2012

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/nyregion/bloomberg-gives-support-to-senator-scott-brown.html

Bloomberg Endorses Republican in Heated Massachusetts Senate Race

...Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, one of the most outspoken defenders of Wall Street, has sided against one of the financial industry’s biggest critics in a hotly contested Senate race in his native Massachusetts.

Mr. Bloomberg has agreed to host a fund-raiser at his Upper East Side town house for the re-election campaign of Senator Scott P. Brown, a Republican, who is being challenged by a fiery consumer advocate, Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat who is also a professor at Harvard Law School...


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to friendly_iconoclast (Reply #10)

Wed Nov 20, 2019, 07:44 PM

13. That right there is a disqualifier.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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