BREAKING: Buttigieg takes lead in NH Primary poll...

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

Sanders lives next door and only gets 9%?

[dewsgirl]

1. WOW.

[BootinUp]

2. Fascinating. Nt

[LaurenOlimina]

3. If he can crack his African American problem, he will be a contender.

I really glad to see him do well.

[disndat]

14. That's a big "If"

Biden has that vote sewed up.

[Renew Deal]

19. So did Hillary '08

[SaschaHM]

27. Barack Obama wasn't polling at 5-0% with AA voters. He was around 40%.

He was also a black man making history for them and while Buttigieg is making history, it doesn't mean as much to the African American community as electing the first black president did.

[Celerity]

4. WOW, not normally speechless, but this does it

this

NH voter sums me up atm

[Lefta Dissenter]

23. LOL

That photo is adorable! 🥰

[Vinca]

5. The only yard sign I've seen so far in NH is for Mayor Pete.

[democrank]

32. Recently traveled through New Hampshire's Coos County

The only lawn signs I saw were for Tulsi or Pete Buttigieg.

[babylonsister]

6. Bravo! nt

[pfeiffer]

7. Caution...

538 does not rate this poll.

[Thekaspervote]

16. Ughhh....there you have it

[ritapria]

8. The previous St. Anselm's College NH Poll was a joke

Last edited Tue Nov 19, 2019, 07:18 PM - Edit history (2)

I am sure Mayor Pete is doing well in NH …..I would not put too much faith in their work product ……….. I have just checked the age breakdown of their sample : 18- 34 ( 13% ) 35 - 54 ( 29 %) 55- 64 ( 25%) 65 + ( 32%) What was the age breakdown in the NH 2016 NH Primary ? : 18- 34 ( 25%) 35 - 54 ( 38 %) 55-64 ( 19 %) 65+ ( 18 %)….. This poll grossly underestimates the support Bernie has in the state of NH ……….Bernie is very strong with the age group 18- 34 and very weak with voters 65+ …….. I doth not protest too much without for reason ... They grossly oversampleth too many seniors

[Celerity]

11. here are their previous polls, I can undertand why you doth protest (as you are a Bernie supporter)

[pfeiffer]

12. Caution...

538 has never rated this poll.

[Celerity]

15. caution noted before your reply

I am a quite fair-minded poll commentator on here, as evidenced by hundreds of previous posts regardless of who is up and who is down.

[crazytown]

9. Wow. Those TV ads must be striking a cord.

[Skya Rhen]

10. Moderates rule - yay!!! Pete takes Iowa and NH, then Biden takes Nevada, SC and Super Tuesday states

[Celerity]

13. NV (IF, a big IF) is so not in the bag for Biden if he does poorly in both IA and NH

As for SC, I have very little doubt Joe takes that, BUT we truly need to see how the dynamics play (Super Tuesday-wise) out IF Buttigieg sweeps all 3 (or finishes a strong 2nd in NV and wins IA and NH) and then finishes 2nd or 3rd in SC. That will be one major route that tosses Super Tuesday up into an unknowable category, especially if Joe does poorly in 3 of the 4, or even 2 of the 4.

Just my thoughts.......

I do concur that the moderates are running the road atm.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

20. I believe that moderates are running the road, but what comes next is unclear.

However, I am thrilled to see this newest poll and curious as to what comes next.

Celerity!

[Celerity]

21. huggiezz my dear Peggy

Pete in NH







and Chicago

[StevieM]

24. If Pete wins IA and NH then I think he will kept a huge surge of momentum heading into Nevada.

I think he would likely win there too. Biden doesn't have the same level of support there that he does in SC.

Ultimately, Mayor Pete will have to find a way to connect more with black voters if he wants to do well in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states.

[Celerity]

25. I think he needs to think outside the box and come up with some way to reach out

to my fellow PoC.

Time will tell.

Either way I am proud as hell to support a brilliant young fellow LGBTQ candidate. He inspired me as soon as I saw his March SXSW townhall on CNN, and I am one jaded tans-continental (Los Angeles born, London-raised) 23 year old Zennial.

[BootinUp]

36. I think they just want to pick a winner

They are standing back and watching, this ain’t over yet. I actually am thinking that way too.

[Renew Deal]

17. Can that be real?

If it is, it means his message is working.

[Thekaspervote]

18. The last 3 recent polls 538 has listed for Nevada

You/guv Biden +10
Fox Biden +6
Mellman group Biden +10

The you/gov poll is most favorable to EW and sanders. Just sayin

[Tiggeroshii]

22. Crazy!

[Gothmog]

26. Given Mayor Pete's lack of support among African American voters this could be good news for Biden

Link to tweet

[SaschaHM]

28. It definitely is.

I'm not sure why people thinking winning with around 25% of the vote is going to cause any large vote shifting momentum when white voters don't suddenly coalesce around candidates like people assume they will. They didn't in 2008 or 2016. They won't in 2020. Hell, Bernie beat Hillary by an even larger margin in NH that any candidate could hope for and white voters didn't suddenly rally around him. If they're split, Biden benefits. Nothing about Buttigieg winning is going to make Warren or Sanders drop out being before their names get put on the Super Tuesday ballots.

[Gothmog]

30. Is Joe Biden actually underrated now?

Link to tweet

Among black voters in the Quinnipiac poll, Biden took 44% to 10% for Sanders and just 8% for Warren. (South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg received less than 1% of the black vote in South Carolina in the new Q poll. Ouch.)

Of the UNF poll, Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab, said: "Buoyed by his support among African American voters, Biden has an established lead far above the other contenders in South Carolina."

Biden's lasting strength in South Carolina and with black voters is mirrored in his improving performance in national 2020 polling as well. Biden was in danger of losing his edge over Warren in national 2020 surveys as recently as a few weeks ago. Now? He averages more than 7 points over Warren, according to the polling database maintained by Real Clear Politics.

To be clear: Biden is still not where he wants to be in Iowa or New Hampshire. And his fundraising needs to get drastically better. But his continued strength in South Carolina -- and the persistence of support from black voters even amid online predictions of his imminent demise -- suggest that Biden may have more strengths than he is getting credit for at the moment.

[SaschaHM]

31. It's the media hype behind IA/NH

Despite having just had a primary in 2016, too many Democrats on this board and twitter have gotten it in their head that IA/NH are going to change the fundamentals of the race in their preferred candidates favor. Voters aren't going to give up their chance to make an impact by defaulting to the IA/NH choice.

[brooklynite]

37. Perhaps...

Conversely, a candidate that does poorly in IA and NH (see Howard Dean) finds that their fundraising dries up.

[SaschaHM]

38. That's quite possible, but we're in a much different time and the primaries are closer.

A candidate on the ballot in IA/NH only has to go 3 weeks for results from NV/SC/all the Super Tuesday States. They're going to be on the ballots (as it will be pass the deadline to be removed) and most campaigns will have planned ahead for that 3 week stretch.

Do or Die campaigns like Harris's may be dumping all their money into IA and hoping that they strike oil, but Sanders, Warren, and Biden (his campaign and PAC) will have already made investments and ad buys in those states before we even get results from New Hampshire. They'll be on the ballot with events planned and ready to go. Then there's the case of candidates that don't need a heavy investment in certain states to get the return. Buttigieg, Warren, and Sanders are going to have to spend way more money than Biden will in South Carolina and in other certain starts where he is leading with black voters.

[Chambi]

29. "margin of error of 6.1 percentage points"

That's very high compared to other primary polls.

[democrank]

33. Pete Buttigieg is a real gem.

You don’t hear the standard Washington talk from him.

[UncleNoel]

34. Summary of poll results from pdf

These results are from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on interviews with 512 New Hampshire
registered voters, including 255 that indicated an intention to vote in next February’s New Hampshire Democratic
Presidential Primary. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular phone between November 13th and 18th,
2019. The survey has a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.3% with a confidence interval of 95%; questions limited to
Democratic primary voters have a margin of sampling error of 6.1%. Data are weighted for age and gender based on a
voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party
identification.
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, “With less than
three months before the primary, the race for New Hampshire’s Democratic delegates is still in a great deal of flux. Pete
Buttigieg has surged to the top of the ballot test with 25%, followed by Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, both with 15%.
Buttigieg’s bump is driven by the favorable impression he’s made on voters, with 76% having a favorable impression of
him versus only 11% unfavorable. His net favorable of 65% easily bests the field, including Biden (+31%) and Warren
(+39%). Primary voters also believe that he would make the best president (23%) over Warren (17%) and Biden (14%).
“However, only 36% of Democratic voters are firm in their choice for President, down from 43% in September. 57% of
current Buttigieg supporters indicate that they could change their mind between now and the primary, as do 60% of
Biden supporters and 72% of Warren supporters. If voters do change their mind, Warren stands to gain the most
support as the second choice of 23% of voters, followed by Buttigieg with 13% and Biden with 10%.
“Buttigieg’s new lead may be vulnerable to an emerging dynamic in the Democratic race: whereas a slight majority
(52%-48%) of primary voters indicated in September that they were looking for a candidate that best reflected their
policy priorities, now a slight majority (50%-48) are looking for a candidate that they believe has the best chance of
beating President Trump. If this trend continues, it may benefit Biden, who is viewed as the strongest nominee to face
Trump by 31% of voters, a significant gap over Buttigieg (11%), Warren (11%) and Sanders (10%).
“The question of electability could well become a dominant theme in the coming months. Among all voters, Biden does
best in general election matchup, with voters indicating 51%-43% that they would vote for him over Trump. The margin
narrows for Buttigieg (49%-42%), Sanders (49%-46%) and Warren (47%-46%). However, when asked who they think
would win a general election, voters believe by a 52%-40% margin that Trump would best Biden; they also believe he
would prevail over Buttigieg (63%-26%), Sanders (65%-27%), and Warren (66%-26%). Buttigieg is benefiting today from
his strong positive image, but he will likely have to convince voters that he has a good chance of beating Trump in order
to consolidate his new support.
“Primary voters seem largely satisfied with the current slate of candidates,” Levesque concluded. “Of four recent or
possible entrants into the race, only Deval Patrick (23%) and Michelle Obama (41%) would get significant
encouragement from voters. 77% of primary voters would discourage Michael Bloomberg from entering the race, while
91% would discourage Hillary Clinton.”

[Joe941]

35. I didnt see that coming.