The 15% rule- or is it?

[nitpicker]

I keep hearing various things about whether or not a candidate needs 15% in a state to win delegates.

1. Statewide, if one gets 15% or more in the primary vote, one can share in the convention delegates.

2. But if one has concentrations in a district or area above 15%, they can also get delegates??

Please explain.

((If I understand correctly, this means that anyone polling under 10% in a state right now might be presumed to be toast there: but given the rise of Buttegieg and fall of Harris, anything can change in a month.))

[Gothmog]

1. Most states allocate delegates in two pools

I was a Clinton delegate to the national convention and was part of the team that vetted Clinton delegates to the national Convention. I was very familiar with the 2016 rules and will check to see if the current rules have changed.

About half of the delegates in many states are allocated on the state level and a candidate has to break the 15% threshold in the statewide vote to get any of these delegates. The other half of the delegates are allocated on the basis of districts (in many states this is on the basis of congressional districts in that state). A candidate can win delegates if they get 15% or more in that district depending on some rounding rules. In Texas we allocate delegates on the basis of state senate districts (Texas has 31 such districts). In my senate district, we had four delegates and Clinton got 3 of these delegates and sanders got one (the ratio was close to 75%/25% in our district even though sanders got 35% of the vote statewide).

These rules can vary slightly between states but all state rules have to be approved by the DNC. States with caucuses have different rules but luckily there are far fewer of these states this cycle.

I hope that this helps

[MineralMan]

2. It depends on how the individual state apportions delegates to the Democratic convention.

In most states, that is done by district. In Minnesota it is done by state senate districts. Other states do it differently. However, most states do not apportion all delegates to the convention statewide, but by some sort of district allocation system. That is why news reports that give numbers of delegates following primary events are only estimates. The actual delegate count for any state is usually not available until the state holds its state party convention.

In some states, the two major parties also use different systems, so it's important to understand that the 15% rule is a Democratic Party principle.

[Gothmog]

3. from Nate

Link to tweet