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Undecided 48%
Joe Biden38%
Bernie Sanders14%

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:19 PM

 

Why is Reuters/Ipsos using an "adults" sample"

Many adults are not even eligible to vote. That's not even mentioning many adults are not even registered to vote, let alone likely to vote. We don't even know how many are likely to register to vote.

Then dumb people like Krystal Ball get all excited about it because she doesn't know anything about methodology.


?s=19
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Arrow 9 replies Author Time Post
Reply Why is Reuters/Ipsos using an "adults" sample" (Original post)
Xandric77 Nov 2019 OP
HerbChestnut Nov 2019 #1
George II Nov 2019 #4
HerbChestnut Nov 2019 #5
Hassin Bin Sober Nov 2019 #7
crazytown Nov 2019 #2
NurseJackie Nov 2019 #3
HerbChestnut Nov 2019 #6
ritapria Nov 2019 #8
JoeOtterbein Nov 2019 #9

Response to Xandric77 (Original post)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:22 PM

1. 84% of respondents were registered to vote.

 

Link to the poll.

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/8684/8604/Topline%20Reuters%202020%20Election%20Tracker%2011%2014%202019.pdf

EDIT: Before someone freaks out, Republicans were not asked about their preference in the Democratic primary.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:38 PM

4. It's an online poll conducted in English, then the results were "weighted to balance demographics"..

 

For this survey, a sample of 2,235 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S.,
Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English
. The sample includes 958 Democrats, 848
Republicans, and 249 independents. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to
ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data
and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe.


In other words, huge chunks of Americans were not included (i.e., those who don't have internet access and those who only speak other languages), and the results were "weighted" (i.e., manipulated)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:40 PM

5. LOL, manipulated.

 

Right. Let the unskewing begin.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:42 PM

7. Bazinga!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Xandric77 (Original post)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:29 PM

2. Oh Ms Ball

 

what a gem you are.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Xandric77 (Original post)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:31 PM

3. Would that make it a Margin-of-Error +/- 16%??

 



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:41 PM

6. MoE was 2.4%. Thanks for playing.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Xandric77 (Original post)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:42 PM

8. When you poll "adults", the results skew toward Benie

 

WaPo/ ABC News poll adults ...That number show shows him at 19% ..When they drill down to "registered voters" his support number drops to 17% .
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Xandric77 (Original post)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 02:29 PM

9. K n R

 

Great news for Bernie!

Thanks for posting!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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