HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » RCP Average: Biden 28.3% ...
Undecided 38%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden14%
Bernie Sanders8%
Kamala Harris8%

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:18 AM

 

RCP Average: Biden 28.3% Sanders+Warren 38.2% (17.6+20.6)

Biden is having difficulty clearing 30%, Sanders has a solid 15% floor. At this time, we are looking at a brokered convention folks.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

40 replies, 662 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 40 replies Author Time Post
Reply RCP Average: Biden 28.3% Sanders+Warren 38.2% (17.6+20.6) (Original post)
crazytown Friday OP
LAS14 Friday #1
BannonsLiver Friday #2
LAS14 Friday #3
highplainsdem Friday #6
LAS14 Friday #7
comradebillyboy Friday #19
MineralMan Friday #4
Pisces Friday #5
highplainsdem Friday #8
crazytown Friday #9
still_one Friday #14
Demsrule86 Friday #20
InAbLuEsTaTe Friday #25
redstateblues Friday #10
crazytown Friday #11
pinkstarburst Friday #16
boomer_wv Friday #12
Thekaspervote Friday #13
Demsrule86 Friday #24
boomer_wv Friday #29
Doodley Friday #15
crazytown Friday #17
Demsrule86 Friday #21
OldRed2450 Friday #33
crazytown Friday #34
OldRed2450 Friday #36
crazytown Friday #37
emulatorloo Friday #18
Happy Hoosier Friday #22
Demsrule86 Friday #23
revmclaren Friday #26
quickesst Friday #27
LineLineReply !
crazytown Friday #28
quickesst Friday #30
Blue_true Friday #31
gulliver Friday #32
floppyboo Friday #35
OldRed2450 Friday #38
floppyboo Friday #39
UniteFightBack Friday #40

Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:22 AM

1. Yes, this is a very relevant statistic. But it's also relevant,

 

I'm afraid, that Sanders + Warren is not > 50%.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:23 AM

2. Bookmarking.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:24 AM

3. What was happening when Warren peaked in mid October? Has...

 

... any analyst dug into this?

tia
las
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to LAS14 (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:28 AM

6. She peaked before the debate last month, which did not go well for her.

 

And of course Biden's been under nonstop attack for months.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to highplainsdem (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:31 AM

7. Aaahhh, right. That's when she would explain her M4A plan. It had...

 

.... receded into ancient history for me, but it doesn't look like the general Dem voting population was as cheered by her detailed, fact-based answer as I was. Too bad.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to LAS14 (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 01:26 PM

19. I generally like her plans but the MfA is just too flawed. She needs to

 

find a way to unshackle herself from MfA.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:24 AM

4. Oh, it's a very long time until the convention.

 

A very long time, indeed.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:24 AM

5. No

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:32 AM

8. I've seen Sanders supporters hoping for a brokered convention since they're sure it'll favor Sanders

 

but I think this is the first time I've seen a Warren supporter talking up a brokered convention.

And btw, if you're combining candidates' numbers, I'd expect those for Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobuchar and probably Harris to be added to Biden's.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to highplainsdem (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:41 AM

9. I'm not hoping for a brokered convention

 

I am reading the numbers. It is reasonable to point out that Biden has not (yet) established a winning lead. The almost certain result of a brokered convention is the loser(s) whining 'we wuz robbed'.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 11:47 AM

14. There are still a significant number of undecided voters not reflected by this

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 03:11 PM

20. Not true ...individuals run not teams...thus according to what I hear the individual with the most

 

delegates will be pushed over the finish line by the the supers on the second ballot. I would suggest that either Sanders and /or Warren needs to get out of the primary before the convention rather than allow their vote to be diluted...wouldn't be the first time that progressives have lost this way. And there is a good chance that both Sanders and Warren will find themselves below the 15% rule in various states also. A brokered convention especially if it involves putting a candidate who did not attract the AA vote over the top and making such a person our nominee will result in a Trump victory.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 03:44 PM

25. Joe won't even make it to a brokered convention...so the only question is who picks up his support.

 

So far, it looks like Elizabeth will pick up the majority of Joe's primary supporters. Good for Elizabeth!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to highplainsdem (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:59 AM

10. Boom. There you go.

 

The rest of the field is more in line with Joe
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to highplainsdem (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 11:04 AM

11. "Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobuchar and probably Harris to be added to Biden's"

 

But they've got to clear 15% to win delegates. Harris' votes will mostly go to Warren. We will see what happens now that O'Rourke has dropped out, but I think Pete will be the main beneficiary. Pete is cashed up, he will not be dropping out.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to highplainsdem (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 12:02 PM

16. I wouldn't

 

"And btw, if you're combining candidates' numbers, I'd expect those for Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobuchar and probably Harris to be added to Biden's."


I'd expect someone voting for one of those candidates to not be keen on Biden for one reason or another or else he'd already be their candidate.

Buttigieg, I don't see disappearing any time soon. He's raking in massive fundraising support and rising in the polls. I think it could easily come down to him as the moderate choice for those who don't go for Biden after the lower tier drops out, with Warren/Sanders getting the progressive vote. There are still lots of undecideds.

And I maintain that our best chances in the general would be a ticket that represents both sides of the party.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 11:18 AM

12. It's not going to be a brokered convention.

 

Trump had trouble clearing 30% too, until he didn't.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to boomer_wv (Reply #12)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 11:41 AM

13. This! Brokered conventions are rare .. the last one was 68 yrs ago

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #13)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 03:42 PM

24. What do you think of the new attempt to make Warren the front and/or Sanders the

 

front runner...by combining the their votes. The assumption is every supporter also supports the other candidate... just generally not a good idea and not true either...but even this can't hide the fact that Biden is still the front runner as he has been all along...leading in the RCP polling.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #24)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 05:20 PM

29. It's absurd.

 

The assumption is that every Bernie and Warren voter are doing so based completely on ideological grounds when most voters aren't all that ideological. We can just look at the most recent Morning Consult polls to see that this is garbage.

Nearly identical numbers of Bernie and Warren supporters show Biden as their 2nd choice than the other.

Warren supporters favor Bernie as their 2nd choice to Biden only 32% to 28%. Warren has an identical advantage over Biden with Bernie supporters, 28% to 24%. However neither of these advantages suggests that there would be a significant change in the race for Warren or Sanders if the other were to drop out. We see that trend continues when you look at Pete and Harris supporters. Warren has a slight advantage over Biden with them, but only slightly. It appears that the only real change in the race in that event would be to dampen the chances of anyone outside of that group. There is absolutely no evidence to support that either Warren or Bernie would gain all of the others supporters in any case, the number appears to be more like somewhere between a quarter and a third, with Biden gaining a nearly identical number. So, we can dismiss the consolidated vote theory.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 12:01 PM

15. I didn't know that Warren and Sanders are the same candidate.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Reply #15)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 12:04 PM

17. Delegates are delegates:

 

both are comfortably above 15% and have been since July.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #17)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 03:13 PM

21. Not in every state and as a winner emerges that could change.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #17)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 09:00 PM

33. You are assuming Warren delegates would go to Bernie? Lol

 

Or vise versa?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to OldRed2450 (Reply #33)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 09:06 PM

34. Actually I am not

 

I am saying that at this stage Biden does not have the votes to get 50+% of the delegates. A brokered convention is something to be avoided if possible - the losing supporters are 'not that happy'.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #34)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 09:28 PM

36. You mean, NO ONE has 50%

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to OldRed2450 (Reply #36)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 09:31 PM

37. Yes

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 12:26 PM

18. Ok. Bookmarking n/t

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 03:35 PM

22. I'm leaning Warren, but....

 

My second choice is most definitely NOT Bernie Sanders.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 03:39 PM

23. I see you combined Warren and Sanders...not how primaries work...Biden is still the front runner.

 

Seriously, not a good idea to do this.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #23)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 03:59 PM

26. Not a good look either. N/T

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 04:37 PM

27. new campaign slogan

 

Berren-Warnie 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to quickesst (Reply #27)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 04:38 PM

28. !

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #28)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 06:44 PM

30. Humor

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 06:52 PM

31. The new math. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 08:51 PM

32. Biden + Harris + Kobuchar + Booker + Castro + Buttigieg + Yang + 0.33 x Sanders is 54%

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 09:12 PM

35. The progressive wing will win. Bloomberg's entry just proved it.

 

Sanders and Warren will work together to ensure a progressive win. It doesn't matter who.
It seriously is time to either end the divisiveness, or choose another party. And no one wants to see the progressives start a 3rd party. The kinder, gentler nation has always been told to swallow a little. Time for everyone else to buck up!
The final contenders in the primary will be Sanders and Warren.
Stop slamming them! Or loose to that Herr Turd again.
It seriously will come down to that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to floppyboo (Reply #35)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 09:41 PM

38. No it won't.

 

Warren has a lot of former Hillary supporters with her now. I promise you.. they are not going to Sanders unless he wins the nomination not before.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to OldRed2450 (Reply #38)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:20 PM

39. you are missing the point.

 

I am certainly not counting out a Warren win. Warren brought me to this site in 2012. That I prefer Sanders is neither here nor there. What I am saying is that, even if it is a brokered convention, you know damn well Sanders will throw his support to Warren. And you should maybe be just a little bit nicer, considering she owes her platform to him. And the centrists don't have a hope in hell, so
be best my friend
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to OldRed2450 (Reply #38)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:30 PM

40. Good point. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread