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Undecided 38%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden14%
Bernie Sanders8%
Kamala Harris7%

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 09:53 AM

 

In some of the latest state primary polling,

Sanders has dropped to under 15% in the polling. In two states, he is polling at 13% and in one at 14%.

Why does that matter? Because it could prevent him from getting any delegates at all in those states. The Democratic Party has a 15% rule. Primary candidates who get less than 15% of the vote get no delegates at all. The delegates are assigned proportionally to the candidates who received 15% or more.

Now, this is not a statewide thing, but applies to whatever districts each state sets up as individual areas that assign delegates. It's complicated, and almost impenetrable in some states. But, you can be sure that candidates who get less than 15% of the vote, statewide, are not going to be awarded delegates anywhere near whatever percentage they got from the voters.

The other factor that is always in play is the number of delegates each state sends to the convention. The higher the state's population, the more delegates that state gets to choose, more or less. There are other factors, too, like how Democrats do in those states, compared to Republicans, but the more populous the state, the more delegates, generally.

That's why, for example, Iowa isn't nearly as important as, say Florida, when it comes to the convention delegation it sends. And then, there are states like California, New York, and Texas, which send massive delegations to the convention.

So, it's important to watch state-by-state polling with those two factors in mind. First, look at the 15% rule, and then look at the total number of delegates who will attend the convention in each state.

It's not a simple equation. Not at all.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 09:55 AM

1. so does Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania

 

no guesswork needed on who most support in those states
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:00 AM

3. True. Polls are interesting, but not all that good at making

 

predictions simple. Few voters understand the 15% rule. Few voters understand just how important the size of a state's delegation is at the convention.

Once the primaries and caucuses actually happen, we'll be able to see a pretty accurate delegate count for each state. Only then can we begin to look at how the convention is going to go.

Some people, like myself, pay close attention to the details of primary election season. Most, however, just look at polling percentages and guess at the outcome based primarily on those.

The 15% rule is huge in Democratic primaries. Many people are going to be surprised when their favorite candidate wins no delegates.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 09:59 AM

2. Wouldn't worry too much about individual state polling beyond the first few primary states right now

 

People in Iowa, NH, Nevada, and SC tend to be more attentive to politics leading up to the primaries. Most people will start paying attention when the first few states vote, and we'll likely see significant changes in polling afterward depending on the results.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:04 AM

4. Yes, that's the conventional wisdom

 

It's based on historical results. However, for the first time, Super Tuesday is going to be far more important than in the past. In fact, it's going to be huge in 2020.

The conventional wisdom may not pan out next year.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:07 AM

5. I think Sanders gets it.

 

I see him pay increasing attention to Warren and Buttigieg. I am especially interested in Sanders/Buttigieg dynamic. If Buttigieg ever manages to knock Sanders off the #3 position, it will spell big trouble for Sanders. For the reasons you mentioned, this is especially relevant on a state-by-state basis.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:10 AM

7. Sanders is hovering around that 15% number.

 

That's a scary place to be in a primary race. If he doesn't draw some voting supporters from lesser candidates, he's going to do poorly in terms of the delegate count in many states.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:26 AM

9. This is where Warren comes in.

 

Bernie cannot expect any additional support to the right of Warren, and Warren is beating him at his own game. The only place he can hope to increase his share of the total is among undecided young white urban men.
That's an awfully shallow pool. Scary indeed.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:37 AM

11. Additional votes will be coming from the rest of the field as well.

 

How they get distributed is going to make a big difference. On the other hand, the undecided vote is also going to play a large role. Once the first primaries are done, people are going to have to make up their minds, and things are going to shift around.

Warren is probably going to have a lock on the so-called progressive voters, once people figure out that Bernie Sanders is falling out of contention. Where the undecideds and the supporters of minor candidates go will be the deciding factor, no doubt. By Super Tuesday, it's going to be a two-person contest, with Sanders hanging in there by his fingernails, I think.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:09 AM

6. I love the down play of Iowa & NH

 

with Biden supporters because their numbers look so bad.

The other state polling at this time is really kind of meaningless including SC. When the results of Iowa and NH hit it will change the polling numbers dramatically in later states depending on the results of Iowa and NH
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:11 AM

8. That's the conventional wisdom, for sure.

 

I'm not so certain about that influence in 2020, though.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:28 AM

10. I don't think Biden runs the risk of falling below 15%

 

Not even in Iowa and New Hampshire.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to beastie boy (Reply #10)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:38 AM

12. That seems unlikely, doesn't it?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 10:39 AM

13. Supporters of other candidates will do the same when Biden wins in the south

 

“It’s the south.”

“We won’t win there in November anyway.”

You can set your watch to it. That’s why I don’t think your point is as clever as you think it is.

On edit: What’s also funny is you turn around and do what you accuse Biden supporters of doing by proclaiming SC not to matter. I guess irony (and self awareness) are dead.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 12:46 PM

14. The 15% rule may keep sanders from getting any delegates in South Carolina

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #14)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 12:48 PM

15. Yes, that seems likely to me.

 

There may be other states, as well, that don't assign any delegates to Bernie Sanders. His polling sure looks that way recently, anyhow. This is looking more and more like a Biden vs. Warren primary race to me.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MineralMan (Original post)

Fri Nov 8, 2019, 12:48 PM

16. Great news! Thanks very much for sharing.

 

Sanders has dropped to under 15% in the polling. In two states, he is polling at 13% and in one at 14%.
Great news! Thanks very much for sharing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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