Biden falls to 4th place in Iowa as support among voters under 45 drops to 2%

[Fiendish Thingy]

I've been saying for a long time this will come down to the youth vote:

https://www.salon.com/2019/11/01/joe-biden-falls-to-fourth-in-iowa-as-support-among-voters-under-45-drops-to-2-percent-poll/

If Biden doesn't win Iowa, NH or Nevada, or worse, places 3rd or lower in all those contests, the media horse race narrative will evaporate whatever slim momentum he might have going into the SC primary, and then Super Tuesday.

He'll still probably win SC, but I can see his lead shrinking dramatically.

Biden is running out of money, can't get many donations from the working class voters he claims to champion, and has resorted turning to the fat cats at the Super PACS.

The candidate who energizes the youth vote is almost certain to be the nominee.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. I've included a post about Biden's donations here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212645938

Have a look.

[Demsrule86]

20. I do not ever read Salon...after What they and H.A. Goodman did to Hillary. I don't trust or believe

a word from these folks.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

22. Sorry I passed it on! Feel free to ignore it. n/t

[cwydro]

32. Thanks for posting this.

Interesting.

[evertonfc]

2. uh oh.

Good news for the Trump campaign

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Biden's attacks on Trump have been vital and ferocious

He has reminded us how to fight and stand tall, and answer Trump's lies immediately. That was a real Obama-Biden strategy in 2008 and 2012. Campaigns and polls have their ups and downs, that's what makes a horse race.

[ritapria]

5. Joe is doing better than 2% support amongst Iowa Voters under the age of 45

His support within that subgroup probably in the range of 8% …….Which means his total Iowa Support level is around 19% ….. …… Warren is ahead by around 3% …..Buttigieg, Bernie and Biden are locked in 3 way tie for second place …...The candidate with the most enthusiastic supporters will challenge Warren for the victor's title in Iowa …...

[Hav]

7. I wish the media would be more careful with this kind of analysis

Especially regarding drawing conclusions from subgroups of an already small sample. While it doesn't seem to be a great poll for Biden, I'm not sure much emphasis should be put on that 2% (somehow rounded down for the 2% and 3% for the two groups under 45 years) just yet when the margin of error approaches 8% for that group.

[Thekaspervote]

8. Biden not running out of money. If the millennials would vote we wouldn't be here, but they don't

@ChrisJackson/twitter Biden campaign mgr

The next time you hear about fundraising, remember this:

@JoeBiden: $37.7 million raised/186 days= ~$202,700 per day

@ewarren: $50.3 million raised/261 days= ~$191,600

Joe Biden on avg. has raised about $11k more per day than Warren, contrary to the narrative being pushed

Candidates that have the most positive support
A new Business Insider report reveals that when looking at three of the publication’s polls from September 25 to October 17th, Andrew Yang and Joe Biden have the most net positive support among undecided voters. 42% say they would vote for Biden! 🥁🥁🥁

A rated poll Suffolk IA
Biden 18%
Warren 17%
More at the link
https://www.axios.com/2020-iowa-poll-pete-buttigieg-95136b69-4686-4f78-a064-52bc972c26be.html

[Cha]

10. You're Great, Kasper!

Thank you for your valuable information!

[Thekaspervote]

11. Thx Cha!! I get SOOOO tired of all the imminent demise of his campaign

[Celerity]

12. 'If the millennials would vote we wouldn't be here'

Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X outvoted older generations in 2018 midterms

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/


We (I am on the Gen Z/Millennial boundary) are far more likely to vote Democratic than Boomers and the even older gens. We will be the ones who will most suffer (as will the post Gen Z (Gen Alpha, born 2010 and after) cohort as well) for the Boomer's and older gen's poorest choices and yet also the ones to sort the mess they left us as well. I have faith we can do it.

[Thekaspervote]

13. Really tired of hearing how the "boomers" left you this mess! accomplishments are monumental

The boomers brought YOU:

Roe V Wade,
civil rights laws
Voting rights laws
Medicare
CHIP
AIDS research
Man on the moon
Woodstock
Sexual freedom
Barack Obama.... yes born in 1963 he is a boomer
Bill & Hillary Clinton
Elijah Cummings
Adam Schiff


Like it or not this are hefty accomplishments

Instead of being critical why not post something positive,


In 2018, among those age 65 and older, voter turnout was 65 percent for women and 68 percent for men. In contrast, 38 percent of women 18-29 years old voted and 33 percent of men of the same age group voted.

More at the link
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

[Celerity]

16. I specifically said the 'poorest' decisions and I never stated there was not a lot of good things to

come out out of those older gens.

You are far too defensive, and I also see far more reverse ageism here on DU that the other way around.


you said

Instead of being critical why not post something positive,

I said

I have faith we can do it.

also you claimed:

The boomers brought YOU:

Roe V Wade,
civil rights laws
Voting rights laws
Medicare
CHIP
AIDS research
Man on the moon
Woodstock
Sexual freedom
Barack Obama.... yes born in 1963 he is a boomer
Bill & Hillary Clinton
Elijah Cummings
Adam Schiff

sorry, you are trying to steal thunder from the pre Boomers on many of those

Boomers are born 1946 to 1964

so

Roe V Wade, << Norma McCorvey was a Boomer, but the lawyers and judges who got it done were not

civil rights laws << not Boomer started at all

Voting rights laws << not Boomer started at all

Medicare <<< not Boomers

Man on the moon << not Boomers

Sexual freedom <<< not Boomer started at all

[Thekaspervote]

18. That's a stretch the original ideas may have come from those that are not boomers

The energy, the driving force behind those ideas belong to the boomer generation.

As far as being defensive, “the mess they left us to clean up.” That’s less than neutral

[Celerity]

29. Not a stretch at all, sorry, but Boomers cannot claim those

Man on the moon, lolol

[still_one]

30. That is the problem, they seem to be oblivious of it. It was these "boomers" that fought

for Civil Rights, workers rights, women's rights, environmental rights, Supreme Court Justices like Ginsberg, and all the issues you named and more, that are being whittled away with the help of some who push the FALSE narrative that there is no difference between republicans and Democrats.

In general I don't give much credibility to Salon's analysis.

[BannonsLiver]

34. Meh

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. But he only has $9m cash on hand, Warren, Sanders and Pete all have $25-30m nt

[Thekaspervote]

17. See post #8

EW and sanders transferred money from their senate re-election fund. EW to the tune of 10 million

I’ll let you do the math

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. So Warren has $15m non-senate money on hand and Biden has $9m

And she's been campaigning since last December - still not looking good for Joe's ability to inspire small donors.

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. Average funds raised over the whole campaign is not a good yardstick

As it doesn't capture the shift in momentum as candidates increase or decrease their fundraising.

Warren, Sanders, and Pete all have 2-3 times the cash on hand than Biden, and they've all been in the race longer.

[Beartracks]

26. The "running out of steam/money/support" narrative... Coincidence?

Who's pushing this narrative (read: made-up story, wishful thinking, lie) if in fact the facts on the ground do not support it?

======

[Thekaspervote]

9. Another FACT... not just conjecture Biden raises 5.3 mil, small donations

More at the link

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287331605

[Demsrule86]

19. Salon? OK then...did that HA Goodman do the poll?

[Buckeye_Democrat]

21. Biden is down by 9% to Warren at DU, the last I checked.

I'll vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election regardless, but it seems like the Biden supporters are pretty vociferous here given the internal polling. Not just this thread, but elsewhere.

[MarcA]

24. This has been true for a long time. n/t

[Gothmog]

23. Folks, let's keep perspective.

Link to tweet

[Capt. America]

25. I'm Gen X and I think Joe has lost his fastball. I don't get the sense that Sanders or Warren have.

[still_one]

31. There is absolutely no evidence that Sanders can move outside of his base. In fact there is

evidence to the contrary that he is losing much of that support to Warren

As to "Joe" losing momentum, I don't think that can be determined from the Iowa caucus. I understand all the hype given the Iowa caucus, but the reality is the caucus process is quite un-Democratic and discriminatory, especially against people with mobility problems, or those who can't be there physically.

NH is a better standard because it is a primary, but in my view it will be Super Tuesday that will actually determine who has the momentum. Everything thing else is just hype among various political competitors

[Capt. America]

33. I didn't mean momentum, I meant his debate performance and his ability to answer question cogently.

[comradebillyboy]

28. Joe needs to substantially up his game or Warren will win the nomination...