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Undecided 45%
Elizabeth Warren20%
Joe Biden15%
Bernie Sanders9%
Pete Buttigieg6%

Thu Oct 31, 2019, 03:23 PM

 

Not only is Gabbard 98+% likely to qualify for the November debate, but now she's only 2 polls short

of qualifying for the December debate as well. There might be only 6 in the December debate, with Gabbard one of them. THAT is not a good look IMHO. She will be able to cause chaos far beyond what she could do in a 12 person stage, let alone if she was not even there.

She was utterly dead in the water, with literally ZERO qualifying polls for November (let alone the higher standard of December) before Clinton went after her via inference (and cemented ('if the nesting doll fits') by her staffer, as if anyone could not figure out who Clinton was talking about.) Now she is polling above or even with HARRIS in some polls, ffs. She was tied for fifth (only trailing Sanders, Warren, Biden, and Pete) in a qualifying NH poll, with 2/3rds more support than Sen. Harris. She beat Harris in the new PA poll too.

Ok, enough on that.

I also have to add that it is MADNESS to think that a 3rd party run by Gabbard will help us (as I have seen posited here.)

She will more than likely run (IF she goes 3rd party) on the GREEN PARTY ticket. There is some extremely faulty logic that Rethugs will vote for her. NO, they will not, there is almost nothing in her platform, let alone the Green platform, that RWers will support. She is overall very LW, almost Sanderite. People are mistakenly thinking the Rethugs using her as a wedge amongst us means some will vote for her. No, they detest almost all of her platform. They just happen to like her slagging off our party and also having a go at Clinton.


Here is a worst case scenario that more fully fleshes this out

Gabbard would have a cakewalk in the Green Primary, Stein is not running and Howie Hawkins is weak. If Warren wins the nomination, there is a really good chance Howard Schultz steps is as an indie too (I do not think Bloomberg will unless Bernie is the nominee, which will not happen), and the Libertarians might have a POOR candidate (Johnson was superb in terms of numbers.)

The Libertarians draw mostly from the Rethugs, and in FAR greater numbers overall compared to the Greens, especially in 2016. This is often overlooked (as it doesn't fit certain narratives), but if you add the 5.2 MILLION votes Gary Johnson and McMullin (a few state indie run) got to Trump, he then beats Clinton, not just in the EC, but also in the POPULAR vote as well, even if you give Clinton ALL 1.46 million Green votes.

With that data/positing in mind, now put Tulsi on a Green ticket, and it is BIG trouble, especially if Bernie and Warren go bonkers on each other in the primary campaign and Bernie does a tepid Warren endorsement, or worse, refuses to endorse her at all.

Tulsi as a Green and Schultz as an indie alone could easily draw a combined 6, 7, 8, even 10 (or more) million votes combined (1980 John Anderson, in 2016-adjusted % numbers, would have pulled over 10 million, Perot, close to 30 million based off 1992) and IF the Libertarians field a shit candidate (they always do fuckall without Gary Johnson and he is NOT running this time), and the other RW 3rd party/indie candidates also do meh, it is (at that point) quite possibly and quite disastrously, Rump's election to lose, especially IF we also bollocks up the impeachment and the economy does NOT go into recession.

Tulsi will pull (in terms of her types of voters) almost all from us, or the types who would never voter for either party, Schultz would probably pull 75/80% from us (the moderate/conservative voting types who detest Warren and hate Bernie even more), and 20/25% from Rethug Rump haters.

Caveat: THAT ALL is a WORST case scenario, I am NOT saying it will happen.

If Biden wins the nomination, then no Schultz (and no Bloomberg, who is not really a variable anyway as Bernie has no chance and that is the only way he might get in), but Tulsi (as a Green top of ticket) will gain more votes from us that she would if Warren was the nominee. That said, there is NO way will she pull more than what what her combined with Schultz (let alone Bloomberg) would have pulled if Warren (let alone Bernie) was the nominee, so it will be less of an effect overall on net.

But NO, it is NOT A GOOD THING for Gabbard to run 3rd party!!



here is the December Debate update




If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Arrow 47 replies Author Time Post
Reply Not only is Gabbard 98+% likely to qualify for the November debate, but now she's only 2 polls short (Original post)
Celerity Oct 31 OP
hlthe2b Oct 31 #1
Blue_true Nov 1 #24
pinkstarburst Nov 1 #2
The Mouth Nov 1 #35
Hortensis Nov 1 #3
IndyinVirginny Nov 1 #4
Celerity Nov 1 #5
IndyinVirginny Nov 1 #9
Celerity Nov 1 #11
zackymilly Nov 1 #12
IndyinVirginny Nov 1 #14
Eliot Rosewater Nov 1 #15
pintobean Nov 1 #28
IronLionZion Nov 1 #34
StarfishSaver Nov 1 #32
Eliot Rosewater Nov 1 #17
IndyinVirginny Nov 1 #18
Eliot Rosewater Nov 1 #19
BannonsLiver Nov 2 #38
MustLoveBeagles Nov 1 #21
IndyinVirginny Nov 1 #22
MustLoveBeagles Nov 1 #27
Karma13612 Nov 2 #37
MustLoveBeagles Nov 2 #44
killaphill Nov 2 #40
MustLoveBeagles Nov 2 #45
Eliot Rosewater Nov 1 #23
MustLoveBeagles Nov 1 #26
still_one Nov 1 #29
StarfishSaver Nov 1 #33
Karma13612 Nov 1 #6
IndyinVirginny Nov 1 #13
Eliot Rosewater Nov 1 #16
Karma13612 Nov 2 #36
BannonsLiver Nov 2 #39
namahage Nov 3 #47
Karma13612 Nov 1 #7
Celerity Nov 1 #8
RhodeIslandOne Nov 1 #10
Kaleva Nov 1 #20
Aaron Pereira Nov 1 #25
still_one Nov 1 #30
Celerity Nov 2 #41
StarfishSaver Nov 1 #31
Celerity Nov 2 #42
IndyinVirginny Nov 2 #43
StarfishSaver Nov 2 #46

Response to Celerity (Original post)

Thu Oct 31, 2019, 03:25 PM

1. I was shocked at the few posters positing that her 3rd party run (if any) would not hurt Dems....

 

Jill Stein wasn't the deciding factor by any means in 2016, but she sure as hell didn't help.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to hlthe2b (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:39 PM

24. Polls can be influenced by ratfuckers.

 

Those people likely are not democrats and never vote with us. But they call themselves such for polls.

If you think those people will vote for her, they won't, maybe 2-3% of people who would have voted for Trump will vote for her. I stand by her hurting Trump more with a third party bid.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 11:21 AM

2. This is why I think

 

Clinton made a huge blunder. Was she wrong? No. We know the Russians are interfering. But Gabbard was polling at 0% before that interview. How much press/support have other candidates been getting since failing to qualify for debates? Would have been wiser to just let her fade into oblivion.

Now she's nearly into the November debates, and halfway to qualifying for the December ones which will mean more attention, more press and more donations. Of course she won't be the eventual nominee... for the democrats. But after dropping out, that added boost could sure help a 3rd party run. Clinton thrusting her into the spotlight was a mistake.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to pinkstarburst (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 10:12 PM

35. Don the con showed

 

there is no such thing as bad publicity.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Andrew Yang

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 11:33 AM

3. Ok. Look, foreign enemies AND domestic are trying to divide and conquer.

 

That's just the way it is. Last time they focused on Sanders as a splinter candidate and the rewards have been enormous. This time it's not Sanders alone as they develop what's developing.

Not only is there NO chance they wouldn't repeat this major strategy, but they never stopped. Thrilled celebratory parties in 2016 don't count as an interruption, they were raising toasts to 2020 at them also.

Hillary turned a needed light on the major tactics Russia and Iran, and no doubt coordinating with some of our own RW agents, have been developing all along.

Good, because ignorance and hiding our heads in the sand is NOT how we hand them all their own.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 12:02 PM

4. Welcome news!

 

For those of us who support her campaign!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Tulsi Gabbard

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 02:23 PM

5. do you want her to run on the Green Party ticket?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 06:16 PM

9. No!

 

Last edited Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:32 PM - Edit history (1)

No, she's running for the Democratic nomination silly, I'd be happy to see her as Bernie's vp pick
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Tulsi Gabbard

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 06:20 PM

11. I see no path for Bernie to win, his ceiling is too low

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 06:43 PM

12. Don't you mean 'Democratic' nomination? n/t

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to zackymilly (Reply #12)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 07:00 PM

14. Zackmilly

 

Yes, zackmilly, the Democratic nomination.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Tulsi Gabbard

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #14)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:03 PM

15. You let us know who you are when you say Democrat Nomination

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #15)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:54 PM

28. This guy keeps coming back with similar names

 

and the same profile and you're getting pissed and letting him give you purple nurples. Relax, Eliot. He'll be gone soon.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Tulsi Gabbard

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Response to pintobean (Reply #28)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 09:55 PM

34. "purple nurples"

 





DUers should be better at spotting these

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to zackymilly (Reply #12)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 09:50 PM

32. Whoops

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:04 PM

17. DemocraTIC god DAMMIT

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #17)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:06 PM

18. Uptight

 

Much?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Tulsi Gabbard

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #18)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:10 PM

19. uh huh

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #19)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 11:14 AM

38. I'm getting the same vibe

 

Will leave it at that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:26 PM

21. I'm not usually a person that nitpicks over grammar mistakes

 

but you might want to change that to Democratic. Just sayin.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MustLoveBeagles (Reply #21)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:33 PM

22. Thanks

 

Fixed it, Thanks
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Tulsi Gabbard

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #22)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:51 PM

27. Your welcome

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MustLoveBeagles (Reply #27)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 08:11 AM

37. Are you just funnin' with us? 🤣🤣

 

I noticed you used the wrong “your/you’re”
Very funny! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

And, I do love beagles! If you peruse YouTube, you have GOT to check out the channel “Oliver the Beagle”. It is really good.
Have a great weekend!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Karma13612 (Reply #37)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 05:44 PM

44. LOL

 

Oops!

And this is why I don't usually do that sort of thing. It inevitably bites me in the ass. At least it made someone laugh so I won't go back and correct it.

Thank you for the video recommendation. I'll check it out. You have a great weekend too.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MustLoveBeagles (Reply #27)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 04:31 PM

40. Irony alert.....

 

n/t
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to killaphill (Reply #40)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 05:45 PM

45. You got me

 



See post 44.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MustLoveBeagles (Reply #21)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:36 PM

23. You think it was a sincere mistake? I dont

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #23)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:50 PM

26. I have no idea

 

I'm hoping it was.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #23)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 09:05 PM

29. Freudian?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #23)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 09:51 PM

33. It was a slip, not a mistake.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 02:38 PM

6. Exactly what is it about her that you find

 

Appealing?
I am curious. Thank you in advance for your response. 🙋‍♀️🤔
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Karma13612 (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 06:53 PM

13. Tulsi

 

Tulsi has been the most vocal anti-war candidate out there this primary, that is first and foremost.
I really find it appealing that she promotes discussion and negotiations as opposed to militaristic threats in dealing with potential adversaries.
On the other hand I find her direct style in challenging the Saudis refreshing after seeing so many of our leaders bow down to them (literally and figuratively)
Her willingness to buck the status quo and conventional wisdom/pre-defined narrative is another plus.
I only wish she (or any Democrat) viewed private gun ownership more favorably.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Tulsi Gabbard

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #13)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:04 PM

16. uh huh

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 08:03 AM

36. Although I don't agree

 

with your points, I do appreciate you taking the time to define them so clearly.

Many thanks, respectfully!🙋‍♀️
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 11:15 AM

39. Righhhhhht

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #13)

Sun Nov 3, 2019, 01:56 PM

47. Bowing to the Saudis?

 

Literally?

Whoever could you be talking about?

Welcome to DU. Enjoy your stay.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 02:41 PM

7. I'm wondering about the logic

 

Where a poll in October can land you in a December debate.

If a candidate does well for awhile, and then, for whatever reason starts doing poorly, how can they use data that is old to qualify in a debate a few months out in the future?

Seems like poor reasoning.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Karma13612 (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 02:50 PM

8. Good question.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 06:17 PM

10. Let her give Trump a blowjob on stage

 

She's going to be shredded and we can be done with her nonsense.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:17 PM

20. According to the info I have, Gabbard may not make the Nov debate and is a long shot for Dec.

 

"Details have been announced for the final debate of 2019. It will take place on the campus of UCLA and be hosted by Politico and PBS.

The DNC has again tightened the qualifying criteria. Candidates must receive 4% support in four approved national or early voting state polls. Alternately, they can receive 6% in two approved early state polls. This is up from 3% and 5%, respectively. On the fundraising side, candidates must have contributions from 200,000 unique donors, up from 165,000. There's also a minimum of 800 donors from 20 states or more, up from 600.

At this point, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have qualified, with Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris likely to cross the threshold shortly. Candidates will have until December 12 to qualify."

https://www.270towin.com/news/2019/10/26/update-on-final-two-democratic-debates-of-2019_881.html







If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 08:45 PM

25. If Gabbard is a Russian asset get the evidence out and kick her out of the party.

 

The DNC is under no obligation to allow her to appear on stage under those circumstances.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 09:08 PM

30. Ah, the "its all Hillary's fault"

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to still_one (Reply #30)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 04:45 PM

41. The only major event that happened between Gabbard at zero qualifying polls and often at zero

 

percent in many polls and now her being on the verge of qualifying for not only the November debate, but more than likely the December one, AND topping an ex top tier candidate like Harris in multiple polls was the Clinton interactions. It obviously had an impact, no matter what your feelings for either one are.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 1, 2019, 09:49 PM

31. This is HILLARY'S fault?

 

No. It's. Not.

But promoting anti-Hillary talking points is
really helpful. To someone.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to StarfishSaver (Reply #31)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 04:48 PM

42. It is not ant-Hillary talking points, it is simple observances of events from a linear perspective.

 

As I stated above, the only major event that happened between Gabbard at zero qualifying polls and often at zeropercent in many polls and now her being on the verge of qualifying for not only the November debate, but more than likely the December one, AND topping an ex top tier candidate like Harris in some polls was the Clinton interactions.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Reply #42)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 05:38 PM

43. Believe it or not

 

There are many people who are truly liberal and who consistently vote Democratic who do not and will never like HRC and are more enthusiastic about Tulsi precisely because of the confrontation with Hillary
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Tulsi Gabbard

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Response to IndyinVirginny (Reply #43)

Sat Nov 2, 2019, 05:54 PM

46. Tulsi's been trashing Hillary for years

 

She didn't just start two weeks ago. If people who call themselves liberal Democrats liberal Democrats are loving Tulsi because she hates Hillary Clinton, she's been giving them plenty to love for several years now. I doubt they suddenly discovered that "You hate Hillary, too? Cool" common bond with Tulsi simply because Hillary said the other day that an unnamed Democratic candidate was being groomed by Republicans to run as a third-party candidate.

Tulsi and her supporters need to own their shish and stop blaming other people - especially Hillary - for what Tulsi says and does.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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