Thu Oct 24, 2019, 10:55 AM

Bradshaw3 (6,889 posts)

Breaking: Warren Leads Biden by 7 points in NEW Quinnipiac poll

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-overtakes-joe-biden-in-new-quinnipiac-poll-democratic-field-2020/

Man I just love putting in the star thingys around the Breaking. Perhaps I should have put Breaking in all caps?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

25 replies, 2419 views

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25 replies	Author	Time	Post
Breaking: Warren Leads Biden by 7 points in NEW Quinnipiac poll (Original post)	Bradshaw3	Oct 2019	OP
What's going on with the polls? This is way beyond normal deviation	Alhena	Oct 2019	#1
Such difference between polls are not unusual and actually are a good sign the polls are honest.	bluewater	Oct 2019	#3
Oh, You're Back!	DarthDem	Oct 2019	#6
I always look at the size of the poll...	CTyankee	Oct 2019	#15
Yeah, but line it up against ALL the other post 3rd debate and what do you see?	UncleNoel	Oct 2019	#24
We see Biden down to 27.2% support at RCP POLLS	bluewater	Oct 2019	#25
Agree...hard to know which to believe	DrToast	Oct 2019	#5
Yes indeed... there have been at least 6 new A+ and other polls out this week showing Biden	Thekaspervote	Oct 2019	#7
Meh	Bradshaw3	Oct 2019	#8
RCP POLLS has Joe at 27.2 % support w a +5.4 lead over Warren	bluewater	Oct 2019	#11
Expect a thundering herd of Biden fans telling you what the poll got wrong! n/t	Baclava	Oct 2019	#2
The herd has already shown up	Bradshaw3	Oct 2019	#9
Primary polls	jcgoldie	Oct 2019	#4
I believe Quinnipiac has published a pro- Warrenn outlier	ritapria	Oct 2019	#10
Right!	jcgoldie	Oct 2019	#12
Let's look at Quinnipiac's Methodology: random live caller, land lines & cell phones...	HeartlandProgressive	Oct 2019	#13
thank you :)	jcgoldie	Oct 2019	#16
There's a pattern emerging of people making sweeping statements while presenting no evidence.	bluewater	Oct 2019	#17
You have nailed it	Bradshaw3	Oct 2019	#19
I respect people's opinions, but bold declarations should be substantiated, no?	HeartlandProgressive	Oct 2019	#14
+10000	Celerity	Oct 2019	#23
I believe your position is anti-Warren	Bradshaw3	Oct 2019	#18
Blame the polls, blame the media... but never blame the Sacred Cow.	LanternWaste	Oct 2019	#21
Good poll for Warren	Bhphoto	Oct 2019	#20
Very proud of Warren.	Aaron Pereira	Oct 2019	#22

Response to Bradshaw3 (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:02 AM

Alhena (2,931 posts)

1. What's going on with the polls? This is way beyond normal deviation

Biden up by 15 in one poll, Warren up by 7 in another. WTF?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Alhena (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:07 AM

bluewater (5,376 posts)

3. Such difference between polls are not unusual and actually are a good sign the polls are honest.

The randomness of sampling and systematic differences in polling methodology account for such disparities from poll to poll and from pollster to pollster.

538 says that this is actually a good sign that pollsters are not "herding", that is "adjusting", their results to match prevailing opinion.

This is why 538 and other data journalists tell us to look at an average of poll results and not cherry pick single polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to bluewater (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:08 AM

DarthDem (5,144 posts)

6. Oh, You're Back!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to bluewater (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:58 AM

CTyankee (61,618 posts)

15. I always look at the size of the poll...

the larger the poll, the smaller the MOE.

the smaller the poll, the larger the MOE.

generally speaking and all other things being equal...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to bluewater (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 11:20 AM

UncleNoel (864 posts)

24. Yeah, but line it up against ALL the other post 3rd debate and what do you see?

All Post-debate#3 Poll Averages: Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)

Only ONE has Warren in the lead in all these polls.

Candidates Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Harris
RCP Average (rounded) 10/16-22: 27 21 17 7 5 Biden +6
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: 21 28 15 10 5 Warren +7
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: 34 19 16 6 6 Biden +15
YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: 24 21 15 8 5 Biden +3
The Hill C+ (RV) 10/21-22: 27 19 14 6 5 Biden +8
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: 27 21 25 6 5 Biden +2
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 6 6 Biden +9
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 5 4 Biden +7
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 5 7 Biden +10

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to UncleNoel (Reply #24)

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 11:30 AM

bluewater (5,376 posts)

25. We see Biden down to 27.2% support at RCP POLLS

That's been heading back down for Joe. That's why it's important to look at the averages of the polls at a reliable tracker and follow the trend lines.

This 27.2% support is lower than Biden was way back on April 25th when he entered the race, he was at 29.3% support then.

People can see this for themselves at RCP:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

A bright note for Biden has been that Sanders has rebounded since his heartattack and has regained support he lost to Warren, this has allowed Biden to keep a +5.4 lead as Warrens number have gone down as well.

The question I keep asking is why is Biden just at 27.2% despite people posting great polls for Joe. Could it be cherry picking?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Alhena (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:08 AM

DrToast (6,414 posts)

5. Agree...hard to know which to believe

The differences can't be explained by normal polling variation.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Alhena (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:12 AM

Thekaspervote (29,107 posts)

7. Yes indeed... there have been at least 6 new A+ and other polls out this week showing Biden

Ahead by double digits- national as well as state. Including the CNN poll out yesterday which gave him a 15 pt lead

🚨 Awesome day of polling for Democratic frontrunner @JoeBiden!

National polls
@surveyusa +10
@MorningConsult +9
@Ipsos +7 (+9 over Trump)
Public Religion Research Institute +8

Iowa
@Suffolk_U +1

Minn.
@MasonDixonPoll +12 over Trump

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:23 AM

Bradshaw3 (6,889 posts)

8. Meh

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:33 AM

bluewater (5,376 posts)

11. RCP POLLS has Joe at 27.2 % support w a +5.4 lead over Warren

Again, looking at polling averages gives a more realistic view of the polling landscape.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Sander's strong performance and vitality at the last debate seems to have rebounded his numbers, apparently at Warren's expense as some Bernie supporters went to her after Sanders' heart attack.

Biden continues to yoyo between 29% and 26% in RCP's polling average and still leads there.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Bradshaw3 (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:06 AM

Baclava (11,573 posts)

2. Expect a thundering herd of Biden fans telling you what the poll got wrong! n/t

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Baclava (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:24 AM

Bradshaw3 (6,889 posts)

9. The herd has already shown up

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Bradshaw3 (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:08 AM

jcgoldie (10,313 posts)

4. Primary polls

I don't think its that rare. I think the models for determining who are likely voters in primary polls diverge an aweful lot.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to Bradshaw3 (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:28 AM

ritapria (1,812 posts)

10. I believe Quinnipiac has published a pro- Warrenn outlier

She has dropped by about 4% in all other post debate polls published in the last few days …..Quinnipiac and Monmouth are grossly overrated because "The Numbers s Guy", Mr. Silver, has conferred upon them a rating they do not deserve ……Suffolk University regularly puts out nonsense ……. Recently YouGuv claimed Warren was ahead of Biden 36% - 24% ...How do they do that while maintaining a straight face ? ...……..Pay close attention to polls published by Survey USA, WaPo/ ABC News , and Fox News ………..That's about it …..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to ritapria (Reply #10)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:43 AM

jcgoldie (10,313 posts)

12. Right!

The validity of polls should be assessed based on whether we agree with the results. What was Nate Silver thinking!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to jcgoldie (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:51 AM

HeartlandProgressive (294 posts)

13. Let's look at Quinnipiac's Methodology: random live caller, land lines & cell phones...

From October 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,587 self-identified registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 713 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to HeartlandProgressive (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 12:00 PM

jcgoldie (10,313 posts)

16. thank you :)

I was replying sarcastically to the occasional habit I see here of disagreeing with polls based on results and not methodology. Thanks for supplying that information.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to jcgoldie (Reply #16)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 12:14 PM

bluewater (5,376 posts)

17. There's a pattern emerging of people making sweeping statements while presenting no evidence.

Is it an attempt to manufacture consent?

What is the manufacturing of consent?

Manufacturing Consent. Their intentions are to manufacture the consent of the people and make sure that their choices and attitudes are altered in such a way that they will always do what is in the government's best interest, which often is the same interest of corporate companies in America. This is what Chomsky meant by propaganda.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to bluewater (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 12:58 PM

Bradshaw3 (6,889 posts)

19. You have nailed it

The attempt to do so only shows in my mind that one's candidate is not as strong as they pretend. Polls are a snapshot in time, just one and only tell part of a story, and this poll is just another element to look at. They certainly do not tell you who will be the eventual nominee, as historical data shows. This poll doesn't mean Warren will be the nominee any more than ones showing Biden ahead mean he will win. But they seem to be useful here for some in trying to declare the race over before voting even begins.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to jcgoldie (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 11:54 AM

HeartlandProgressive (294 posts)