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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 01:54 PM

 

The polls are clear... we have no clue what is happening except for one thing...


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-supporters-used-to-say-sanders-was-their-second-choice-now-they-say-warren/

When looking at the polls in this article, the differences are so great it's clear we don't have a clue what's happening except that old people prefer Biden.

Morning Consult has consistently run Biden-biased so it's no surprise that Fox does too. It's that age old problem - old people have land lines and answer them, anyone under 60(?) knows better than to answer a phone number they don't recognize.

YouGov has an interesting model if they can filter out noise. We will see ....
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply The polls are clear... we have no clue what is happening except for one thing... (Original post)
HelpImSurrounded Oct 2019 OP
regnaD kciN Oct 2019 #1
frazzled Oct 2019 #8
highplainsdem Oct 2019 #2
HeartlandProgressive Oct 2019 #3
Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #9
bluewater Oct 2019 #17
ritapria Oct 2019 #4
TidalWave46 Oct 2019 #6
Tarheel_Dem Oct 2019 #5
Act_of_Reparation Oct 2019 #10
Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #12
emmaverybo Oct 2019 #13
HelpImSurrounded Oct 2019 #18
TidalWave46 Oct 2019 #7
Peacetrain Oct 2019 #11
Alliepoo Oct 2019 #14
abqtommy Oct 2019 #15
Politicub Oct 2019 #16

Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 01:58 PM

1. Lots of us OVER 60 don't answer numbers we don't recognize, too...

 

And, while I do have a land line (in order to get a discount rate on DSL service), everyone I know has my cell number, so I never answer the land line, since the only people who call it are telemarketers.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:21 PM

8. Ya, like, ya know

 

This whole analysis seems to be a paranoid, agist form of wishful thinking. You know, if only young (white) people could vote, things would be different.

I'm over sixty, and not a Biden supporter (truth be told, not a supporter of anyone at this point). And I've never responded to national polls during a primary. Let's just admit that the era of predictive polling is pretty much over (it's a mess), at least for the time being. But to focus on age alone (as opposed to race, economic status, and other factors) is just myopic. The din of the Internet and social media has led people, and especially journalists, to believe that popularity in cyberspace is somehow the measure of popularity in the real world. That is sooooo not true (as they themselves have sometimes reported, but apparently forgotten). If we look at the last few election cycles, the darlings of the Internet have rarely succeeded in winning an election. Why is that? Because the people who are active in politics on social media are not coterminous with the field of actual voters, the majority of whom do not read or participate in political activity online.



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:07 PM

2. Where's your evidence, to back up your assertion, that Morning Consult and Fox News are oversampling

 

older voters?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:07 PM

3. The poll aggregate trackers clearly show Warren basically tied now with Biden

 

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Response to HeartlandProgressive (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:35 PM

9. RCP has a dirty secret! It's poll aggregate now falls under scrutiny

 


RealClearPolitics has carefully cultivated a non-partisan image—while in the shadows its parent company pushes images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin.

More at the link... if you want

https://www.thedailybeast.com/realclear-media-has-a-secret-facebook-page-filled-with-far-right-memes
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 06:03 PM

17. So The Economist's Poll tracker is the way to go then? It is more sophisticated too.

 

Methodology
We estimate support for each candidate using a statistical method called Bayesian dynamic Dirichlet regression. The model aggregates polls over the course of the campaign, putting more weight on polls conducted recently, less on those with small sample sizes and accounting for “house effects”—the tendency for some polling firms to over- or underestimate support for certain candidates. We exclude polling firms that do not use rigorous methods. In the past, surveys conducted over the phone with a live interviewer or with online survey-takers that use well-thought-out methodologies have been more reliable than other methods.


https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

RCP just does a simplistic unweighted average of the last 5 or so polls,hence it's chart jumps around a lot.

Some people fee that the Economist's model may be smoothing too much, but it certainly doesn't swing 6 % points if two strong polls come in the same day for a candidate.

Thanks for the info on RCP's other right-wing social media.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:08 PM

4. That is why Bernie's support is understated in many polls

 

His support is heavily concentrated amongst voters 18-34 ... His support amongst voters over 60 is around just 5% …
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to ritapria (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:09 PM

6. Seems strange that the longer they get to know him....

 

The less they like him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:08 PM

5. "Old people" are reliable voters. I'm sure the name calling was meant as flame bait, but why is...

 

any poll that's good for Biden characterized as "biased"?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:36 PM

10. "Old people are reliable voters"

 

Or current campaign strategies encourage participation from older voters, to the neglect of younger demographics. Whatever gives you the warm-and-fuzzies, I guess.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:37 PM

12. When you get an answer to that.... a FACT based answer would you let me know?? Thx

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:54 PM

13. Yes. I find the "old people" name calling offensive as is dismissing an entire population. But

 

once again, in addition to belittling Biden supporters, positive Biden polls are scoffed at.

That Biden is still more than holding his own, given media bias against him and the full brunt of the Trump machine, demonstrates Biden’s durability. Not one internet-based news source that democrats pay attention to supports Biden while readers tend to virulently oppose him.

But Joe prevails. He endures. He and “old people” aren’t going anywhere soon.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #5)

Tue Oct 15, 2019, 11:16 AM

18. It was meant to insult polling methodologies not voters

 

And 'biased' in this case merely means 'demonstrates a preference for'. If the polling sample is naturally excludes a portion of the populace, however unintentional, it is biased.

Usually we see "Among democrats" or "registered voters" or "likely voters", I think they need a new category "willing to answer an unrecognized phone number." I see more and more people every day with a growing sense of phonephobia.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:11 PM

7. I think they make one thing clear.

 

Warren and Biden are front runners and no one else is currently on the move.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TidalWave46 (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 02:37 PM

11. +++++++++1000

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 03:05 PM

14. Huh.

 

Funny that my daughter and her friends are in their mid 30’s and are big Biden supporters. I’m certain they are far from alone in their age groups support of handsome Joe. Also-the hubs and I have a landline (bundled service) We are considered “old” by some and we certainly don’t answer unknown calls. I’m growing weary of these 538 pearls of wisdom.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 04:48 PM

15. The statement in the op that "old people have land lines and answer them"

 

is not correct. I'm old and I have a land line but I use my Caller ID feature to screen calls and I won't answer any number I don't recognize.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HelpImSurrounded (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 05:57 PM

16. And nobody has time to slog through a long online survey, either.

 

Most online surveys are fielded from pools of people who self-identify as people who enjoy taking surveys.

Not all, of course. But the majority are certainly administered in this way.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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