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Undecided 36%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden13%
Bernie Sanders8%
Kamala Harris8%

Wed Oct 9, 2019, 02:25 PM

 

WOW! Check out the classy Economist Poll Tracking site!

It's very well done, breaks down poll averages by all voting demographics, looks great and is easy to follow, and shows average poll results for things like whom else voters are considering.

They describe their approach as:

Above, we have calculated support for each candidate by aggregating publicly available, high-quality opinion polls. We include only surveys from pollsters who conduct their interviews over the phone with a live interviewer—rather than with automated machine recording—or that use rigorous and well-documented online methods.

Methodology
We estimate support for each candidate using a statistical method called Bayesian dynamic Dirichlet regression. The model aggregates polls over the course of the campaign, putting more weight on polls conducted recently, less on those with small sample sizes and accounting for “house effects”—the tendency for some polling firms to over- or underestimate support for certain candidates. We exclude polling firms that do not use rigorous methods. In the past, surveys conducted over the phone with a live interviewer or with online survey-takers that use well-thought-out methodologies have been more reliable than other methods.


And just a tease of their current results:

Biden 25%, Warren 24%, Sanders 15%, Buttigieg 6%, Harris 5%, Yang 4%

This site definitely looks like another great tool to with which to follow the 2020 Democratic Nomination process!

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Reply WOW! Check out the classy Economist Poll Tracking site! (Original post)
bluewater Wednesday OP
ritapria Wednesday #1
HeartlandProgressive Wednesday #5
Hortensis Wednesday #2
bluewater Wednesday #3
Hortensis Wednesday #4

Response to bluewater (Original post)

Wed Oct 9, 2019, 03:36 PM

1. They are wise to exclude robo polls

 

They are worse than useless
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to ritapria (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 9, 2019, 06:05 PM

5. And the online polls with poor methodology

 

Some of those even pay people with rewards to participate
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to bluewater (Original post)

Wed Oct 9, 2019, 03:41 PM

2. Good. But remembering that almost every pollster said they

 

were seriously reconsidering the validity of polling. Also that they all agree no one should be paying any attention to polls at this point, especially national polls.

But 1 in 200,000 people actually need some kind of data, so I guess they're still being produced as a public service.

Thanks for the site, Bluewater. Seriously.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 9, 2019, 03:59 PM

3. "1 in 200,000 people actually need some kind of data"

 

That ratio might be slightly higher here on DU.

But it's nice to see another professionally done take on Polling Trackers, and this one at least looks well implemented and they state their approach explicitly.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to bluewater (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 9, 2019, 04:28 PM

4. :) As one would expect of The Economist.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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