** NEW ** (B rated) NC Poll - Biden 39%, Warren 22%, Buttigieg 9%, Sanders 6%, Harris 3%

[Skya Rhen]

Biden leads the Democratic primary in the state with 39% to 22% for Warren, 9% for Buttigieg, 6% for Sanders, 3% for Harris and Andrew Yang, 2% for Cory Booker, and 1% each for Julian Castro and Beto O'Rourke. There is a massive racial divide. Warren leads Biden 31-26 with white voters, with Buttigieg also entering double digits at 12%. But with African American voters Biden gets 63% to 6% for Sanders with Warren and Buttigieg each getting 3% along with O'Rourke.


https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PPP_Release_NC_100919.pdf

Public Policy Polling surveyed 963 North Carolina voters from October 4th-6th. The margin of error is +/-3.2%. All participants were selected through a list based sample. 65% completed the survey by telephone call and 35% completed the survey by text message.

[comradebillyboy]

1. Glad to see Warren gaining with the African American community...

[UncleNoel]

2. ???

She only has 3!

My mother always called me Billyboy, btw. Lol!

[Cha]

22. He said "Warren"..

[emmaverybo]

10. What was she before? 1%? She is at 3%.

[Cha]

21. He said "Warren"..

[FloridaBlues]

3. Great NC numbers for Biden!

[brush]

4. Anything on South Carolina? That's the relevant poll.

[Skya Rhen]

6. Biden 37%, Warren 17%, Sanders 8%, Harris 7%

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287296775

[Thekaspervote]

13. A+ rated Poll 538 Fox: Biden 41%, warren 12%, sanders 10% SC is the bellwether for AA voters

A+ rated poll by 538 Fox 9/29- 10/2

Biden 41%
Warren 12%
Sanders 10%

More at the link

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/south-carolina/

[Cha]

23. Thank you, Kasper!

[Sloumeau]

5. Thanks for posting this. Go Joe! :)

[at140]

7. Warren takes lead in RCP national average of polls...

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Warren26.6
Biden26.4
Sanders14.6
Buttigieg5.6
Harris4.4
Yang2.8
O'Rourke2.0
Booker1.4
Klobuchar1.2
Castro1.0
Bennet0.8
Gabbard0.8
Steyer0.6
Williamson0.6
Ryan0.4
Bullock0.2
Delaney0.2
Sestak0.0
Messam0.0
Warren +0.2

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Skya Rhen]

8. To be the nominee, one has to actually accumulate the most delegates, once ALL of the states have

voted. That's just how it works...

[at140]

18. Absolutely and positively correct what you said...

The reason RCP states this as "news" because Warren has never had the lead before.
I am sure the media loves a competitive race because it brings in more viewers.

[emmaverybo]

11. Biden and Warren are in a virtual tie in this poll. It is spin to say lead.

[at140]

16. I copied the title as is, without editing it!

The media said she takes the lead instead of saying it is a virtual tie.
My guess it is stated that way because until now Warren never had a lead.
So it is news?

[Demsrule86]

25. No they are not in a tie...did you look at the poll?

[emmaverybo]

26. The RCP? Yes. Biden is a fraction behind Warren, she not significantly ahead enough to call her

leading, but a co-frontrunner to him and as has been said “in a virtual tie” with him as far as this
one aggregated poll goes. It does not include data from all polls. I was responding to the comment about the RCP poll, not the NC!

[Thekaspervote]

14. RCP has a dirty little secret!! It runs a secretive RW FB page called Conservative Country

Discovered by the DailyBeast RCP has carefully cultivated a non-partisan image—while in the shadows its parent company pushes images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin.

The company behind the non-partisan news site RealClearPolitics has been secretly running a Facebook page filled with far-right memes and Islamophobic smears, The Daily Beast has learned.

It’s polls are definitely different than 538.

Not sure why anyone would trust what they print anymore

More at the link

https://www.thedailybeast.com/realclear-media-has-a-secret-facebook-page-filled-with-far-right-memes

[ritapria]

9. PPP is routinely off the mark

Their record for accuracy in 2016 ? B , for Bad

[Thekaspervote]

15. Not!

[LanternWaste]

17. "This is troubling for Bernie."

(and how about that! We both supported our premise with the precise same objective evidence... that is, absolutely none).

F for... well, I'm sure some Mad Libs players may have a guess or two.

[Skya Rhen]

12. NC has 107 delegates so, at this rate, Biden gets 68 and Warren gets 39. Biden +29...

[oasis]

19. Joe in very good shape. He should get a significant boost by the end

of November when most of the 1-2%ers finally fold up their tents.

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. Looking good in the Tarheel state.

[Cha]

24. ..

[Scurrilous]

27. K&R

[boomer_wv]

28. Southern Sweep.

Biden is going to sweep through the south. He's going to win VA, WV, KY, TN, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, MO, AR, LA, TX, and FL.

Warrens national numbers are rising, but we haven't seen that show up in places like NC. That doesn't make a lot of sense since there are lots to college educated whites in NC, a demo that is at the top of Warrens fandom. It leads me to believe that Warrens support could be geographically clustered, which make her votes inefficient. Since primaries aren't winner take all, it won't have the same impact as the EC, but it will still hurt some.

Secondly, in NC atleast, it appears that Sanders support has collapsed, and that it helped Biden overall. Sanders had been in 2nd in each poll of NC with Biden in the high 30's. In the High Point Poll at the end of Sept, Biden was sitting in the low 30s. The PPP poll from today shows Sanders in single digits and it looks like his support split between Warren and Biden, putting him back into the high 30s. I'll be watching to see if we see that happening in other polls as well.

If that happens, it torpedoes one of the main arguments; that Sanders support will eventually merge with Warrens to push them ahead of Biden. It may actually split between them and be a wash. In fact, given that Warren has been a trendy pick for some time, I expect that much of the support she was set to gain from other candidates has been cannibalized, most of those voters have already switched.