Nate Silver: Count on media ignoring Fox News WI/SC polls since they don't match media narrative

[highplainsdem]

of Warren as the front-runner and Biden failing


Twitter thread starting here, full text below:

Link to tweet

You can pretty much count on these strong polls for Biden in Wisconsin and South Carolina getting ignored since they don't match the media narrative. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-expands-lead-among-south-carolina-democrats …





To be clear, I'm someone who thinks 1) Warren is also doing well and is at least a co-favorite to win the nomination & 2) Biden's strategy over Ukraine hasn't been good. But I'm not sure if there's a candidate other than Trump for whom strong polling is so dismissed by the press.

I hope he's wrong. It will be interesting to see if MSNBC in particular gives these polls anything like the attention they give to polls showing Warren with even a slight lead.

[Gothmog]

1. I agree with Nate

[qazplm135]

2. so he thinks she's a front runner too

To be clear, I'm someone who thinks 1) Warren is also doing well and is at least a co-favorite to win the nomination & 2) Biden's strategy over Ukraine hasn't been good.

[emmaverybo]

29. When she gets that far, Trump will try to destroy her candidacy and reputation too. Biden would

be the first then to stand up for her, by name.

[Gothmog]

3. Biden Expands Lead In South Carolina

This makes me smile https://politicalwire.com/2019/10/06/biden-expands-lead-in-south-carolina/

A new Fox News poll in South Carolina finds Joe Biden captures 41% support among Democratic primary voters, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 12%, Bernie Sanders at 10%, Kamala Harris At 4%, Tom Steyer at 4%, Cory Booker at 3% and Pete Buttigieg at 2%.

[LonePirate]

4. Red and purple states prefer Biden. Blue states prefer Warren. No surprise in these polls.

[highplainsdem]

5. Biden beats Warren in lots of blue state polls. The latest A-rated California poll, a SurveyUSA

poll done a few weeks ago, had Biden leading Warren by 9 points:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=58e0ba48-d312-4f29-9007-67c41aa7d9a5


The latest A-rated poll of NY, done at the same time, has Biden leading by 5:

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/SNY0919-Crosstabs-091719.pdf


The latest A-rated poll of NJ has Biden leading by 6:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nj_091919.pdf/


The only polls of Massachusetts done since early spring, according to FiveThirtyEight, are the B+ rated Suffolk University polls, done in June and September, and those both had Biden ahead.

The only Illinois poll shown by 538, a poll done in late July, has Biden leading by 21 points.

The only Washington state poll shown by 538, an August poll done by Zogby, has Biden ahead.



I could continue, but I hope this makes the point that Biden's ahead in many polls in blue states.

[Thekaspervote]

8. Only to some degree. Here is a breakdown of states listed that are blue on the 538 pg

Blue states that support Biden
PA, NC, NY,NJ, WA, MARYLAND, DC

Ties between BS & JB NV and Oregon

Ties between JB & EW her home state of Ma.

Not a complete list. These are states with fairly current polling, but most of the blue states are listed. CA is a 3 way tie between Harris, Sanders and Biden

[Hortensis]

10. Blue states prefer BIDEN, but by current narrow polling margins,

a few of which even show her pulling a bit ahead.

Warren's currently polling very well just looking at the facts.

[treestar]

21. The all important state of Iowa

was red in 2016.

The primary is not comparable to the general.

[onetexan]

43. you conveniently ignore the blue state polls

[left-of-center2012]

6. "media ignoring"

It was mentioned on the two Sunday news shows I watched.

Guess Nate can't predict everything.

[thesquanderer]

7. Also, they DO match the media narrative.

Biden leading. Warren strong (up more in SC than Biden is, and a strong second in WI). How does this not match the narrative? I hope Silver isn't going tin-foil on the media on us.

[Sparko55]

9. Right - Let's Remember the last time South Carolina voted Democratic for President

Why do the Democrats fool around in South Carolina?

The last time a Democrat won the state in a Presidential election was 1976, and the time before that in 1960.

So remind me again why we waste our time and energies on South Carolina, when there isn't a rat's ass chance it will show up in the Blue column in November 2020!!

Until a state can show it can deliver votes in a Presidential election, like Nevada, Virginia, and even North Carolina, what narrative does spending time, money, and energy have in a reliably Red state - other than banging one's head against an impenetrable wall. It lends itself to a "conservative" bias of the media and some elements in the party that keep saying "the country is center right" when in fact more people are center left and support progressive ideas than the powers that be care to recognize.

As with 2016, yup, Hilary won South Carolina and it added nothing come November. On the other hand Wisconsin has always been a close call - a mostly reliably Blue since the late 80's, so yeah, spend more time and effort there - fair enough. And as always, don't take anything for granted and not show up in fly over country come September, October and November in Presidential election years!!!!

[Wellstone ruled]

11. The Thirteen State

Strategy of Rahmn Emanuel cost us the House once,it will not happen again. Howard Dean's fifty state Strategy laid the ground work for taking back the House. We lost the message war years ago,and it takes a couple cycles to regain it.

[Thekaspervote]

22. We're talking primary.. not general election. SC has 54 dem delegates that will help determine who

The nominee is....has nothing to do with the general election

[Demsrule86]

51. Iowa doesn't vote for us either and is home to Grassley...why do we fool around with this state?

[Demsrule86]

52. I guess it is OK with some to disenfranchise AA voters...based on where they live...they mustn't

stand in the way of the chosen(by others) candidate that they don't support in the primary...just fall in line-We know better don't you know- wow-just wow. AA voters are an important part of our party and without them, we would not have a house majority...some of our majority hails from Georgia and South Carolina and other red states. I find that disrespectful to say the least.

[Hortensis]

12. Warren's doing good while Repubs/Trump are on the run AND

Biden's undergoing major barrage from right, far left, Russia and much of the media. She's effectively currently camped on a nearby ridge out of harm's way while the Democratic house-Biden-Republican battles rage.

BUT, what will happen after the senate has refused to remove Trump in spite of massive evidence, as is the most likely outcome? Determination to impeach among the electorate will have been replaced by angry determination to win control and throw Trump and Repubs out.

I predict our electorate's concern for electability will surge once again and dominate. How could it be otherwise? Even if Pence became president. Who our voters will see as most electable no one can guarantee, but at this point it's still likely that Biden's support will be far more broad based, that he'll still be the most reassuring and trusted choice, and that his delegate count will pull solidly ahead in the early states overall.

And remembering that Biden and Warren are both the second choice for large blocs of each other's voters. Oh, and that he's male and she's female.

Here's the primary schedule for those who want to refresh their memories. Several NE blue states vote later, including NY where Warren's currently close behind Biden.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-calendar/

[DrFunkenstein]

13. Why Ignore California: Warren 29% and Biden 20%

There's a lot more at stake.

[highplainsdem]

14. The UC Berkeley poll you cite isn't even rated at 538. The A-rated SurveyUSA poll has Biden 27%,

Sanders 18%, Warren 16%. The polls were done at the same time.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=58e0ba48-d312-4f29-9007-67c41aa7d9a5

[Thekaspervote]

23. Thx highplainsdem for putting the facts out there!!

[emmaverybo]

30. Thnx. It is important, particularly given Trump's attempt to create an alternate reality in the

public mind, that we stay truthful, factual.

[ritapria]

15. I've checked out the internals of these Fox News Polls

As a Bernie supporter , I am not too thrilled with the results ...It looks like the samples of both polls are rock solid ….Demographically sound …. You would be surprised by all the garbage that is put out there but not in this instance

[Blue_Adept]

16. Everything changes once Iowa votes. SC's numbers and others will shift once they see the frontrunner

[highplainsdem]

17. Yes, I remember when we nominated Gephardt and Harkin after they won Iowa. LOL.

And how Huckabee and Santorum went on to win the GOP nomination after winning Iowa.

[Indykatie]

19. The Everything Changes After Iowa Strategy Will Not Work in 2020

Mark my words, SC will be the defining race in 2020.

[Thekaspervote]

24. EW is 2 pts ahead in IA, one pt ahead in NH. which means electoral delegates will be split with JB

And EW receiving the largest share.

Moving to SC, right now JB is on track to gain approx 2/3s of the delegates there

Here’s the breakdown


In the first four states, here's how it stacks up (RCP averages):

41 Iowa Warren 26.2, Biden 24, Sanders 16.3 (16, 15, 10)
24 New Hampshire Biden 23.2, Warren 21.0, Sanders 17.2 (9, 8, 7)
36 Nevada Biden 24.0, Sanders 21.7, Warren 18.3 (14, 12, 10)
54 South Carolina Biden 38.3, Warren 16.0, Sanders 13.3 (38, 16, 0)

That would give:

Biden 15+9+14+38 = 76
Warren 16+8+10+16 = 50
Sanders 10+7+10+0 = 27

[emmaverybo]

31. Thank you for converting poll numbers to delegates.

[BeyondGeography]

37. It's four months until anyone votes, those numbers aren't going to hold for anyone

That said, if you had to choose between Warren’s and Biden’s respective positions right now, there are strong arguments for preferring either one of them. It’s also possible that either or both of them will be roadkill before South Carolina. Sweating the polls at this point is for rookies.

[Demsrule86]

54. They won't...they do not support Warren at this time. Iowa does not have the power to change that.

stand win by much if she wins at all...wishful thinking.

[Indykatie]

18. I View SC as the First Real Test for the Candidates

It's a large State with a diverse population and a regular primary. If Biden places second in Caucus states like IA or NV or a small predominantly White State like NH it will not change the trajectory of the race where he is seen as the front runner. Neither Bernie nor Warren is doing well with African American voters at this point. I don't see how either of them can win the nomination if that doesn't change.

[George II]

20. Those polls demonstrate how powerful Biden is with Black voters.

[Skya Rhen]

25. We know Joe...

[tblue37]

26. I support both, though I prefer Warren, but it really ticks me off that the media are

trying so hard to create a narrative to sink Biden, just as they keep pushing the "Democrats in Disarray" narrative.

[Faux pas]

27. Who cares what faux tries

shove up our beeps? Media ain't picking my candidate

[beachbumbob]

28. Media no friend of a joe Biden who will trounce trump and have

coat tails for huge blue wave landslide. They will keep pretending warren or sanders has a shot

[emmaverybo]

32. I have to agree. They helped him win in 2016 and are helping him now, inadvertent as that might be.

[beachbumbob]

34. It's about power and illusion. The media is corporate owned and

you have to be in denial they are not all about enrichment AND protection of those who already have it all. In the hey day of the Soviet Union, a Russian told me at least in Russia, they know everything they see and hear in the media is pure bullshit and Americans are too stupid to believe the same.

Those words ring truer today than when I heard them 35 years ago.

[emmaverybo]

36. I hate to see the truth in that--that our free press goes where the power lies, not always the

truth. But then NYT sure beat those drums of war right out of the gate in response to 9/11 and
the media in general was grossly unfair to Hillary as they were in 2008 to Obama.

[emmaverybo]

39. They have a shot. But contrary to media spin, right now Joe is still the clear front-runner, which

is why he is taking it from all sides and why Trump committed an impeachable offense to go after
him.

Sanders and Warren have loyal, committed, and very enthused support. Lots of little folks are feeding their kitties,

Biden supporters need to up their small donations if they can.

[Cha]

33. I hate the media narratives(but her emails).. they

helped bring us the monster.

[emmaverybo]

38. Yes, they did, Cha. We can't let them do it again. We can't let Trump or the media pick the

nominee. Whoever that will be is up to voters who should not be influenced by spin like this. As a
Warren supporters wisely said let’s put this bilge aside and concentrate on policy. Policy and issues
make for a fair debating base. But a hit-piece like this feeds the Trump machine.

[Cha]

40. NYT should be writing about reality.. it's

trump "who's NOT "handling" his Lying Smears very well"

Link to tweet

Trump was attempting to employ covert propaganda against the American public

Let that sink in!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=12548797

Link to tweet

Thank you, emmaverybo

[onetexan]

44. thanks Cha. Here is Morning Consult's Tracking Trump - note the negative #s for swing states

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Dumpster's SWING STATES' approval points all in the negative:
WI -11
MI -10
IA -14
MN -11
OH -5
PA -8
VA -6
NC -3
FL -2
NE -2
UT -2
MT -3
AZ -4
NV -12
NM -16
CO -15


Holy cow, Dems may just win TX:
TX, IN 2
ND, SD, GA 1

I've been monitoring this site weekly, and Dumpster's approval numbers have dropped significantly since impeachment was announced.

[Cha]

45. "Dumpster's approval numbers have dropped significantly since impeachment was announced"

Oh, and I bet Traitortrump thought "impeachment" inquires would boost his polls.. especially in Texas!

Good to know, onetexan!

[Scurrilous]

46. ...

[Hassin Bin Sober]

35. sToP bAsHInG aRe mEDIa!

Conspiracy theory!1!

[LanternWaste]

55. "This is troubling for Bernie."

[Gothmog]

42. @JoeBiden 's favorability and standing in the primary has been stable nationwide.

Link to tweet

[aikoaiko]

47. Oh Nate. Don't be so dramatic. The narrative has always said Biden was doing great in SC.

But Warren is surging in IA and NH.


What nonexistent shit are you trying to stir?

[Hassin Bin Sober]

48. I can't decide if Nate is bashing the free press or pushing a conspiracy theory. Or both.

[DrToast]

49. I mean, his tweet includes screenshot of the media covering it

🤷🏻?♂️

[Gothmog]

50. Biden's polling number are very stable

Link to tweet

[TidalWave46]

53. Fox news runs pretty good polls.

I don't care if any of the other outlets run with them. Running with them just gives more power to Republican news outlets. Fox news will work relentlessly to bring all of our candidates down.

No Bernie, don't go on Fox News!!!

I hope they show the Fox News poll all over the place!!!

Fuck Fox News.

[LeftTurn3623]

56. Thats strange

because I wouldn't say the Wisc poll shows anything bad for Warren other than she is catching Biden.

Wisc

Biden 28%
Warren 22%
Bernie 17%


She is gaining and gaining quickly


SC is always going to be a strong state for Biden


Biden is a good guy and I would love to see him as President..... Just not as much as Warren

[Gothmog]

57. Poll: Biden holds 24-point lead over Democratic field among black voters

Link to tweet

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the top pick among black voters, with a 24 point lead over his closest competitor in the 2020 Democratic primary field, according to a new poll.

A Hill-HarrisX survey found that 36 percent of registered black voters said they want Biden to be the party's nominee, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with 12 percent support.

No other candidate received double-digit support. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) tied for third place, garnering 8 percent each.

[flamingdem]

58. MSNBC has had Katy Tur trashing Joe all day

Fugg that noise

[boomer_wv]

59. EC?

There is one goal for this cycle....beat Trump. Anything else that happens is secondary to beating Trump and to do that we have to beat him in the Electoral College, where Republicans have a built in advantage.

So, with that said, which state can Elizabeth Warren bring to Democrats that Biden can't? I can't think of any where our position would be better off with her as the nominee. Biden is polling better in the Rust belt states and is one of the favorite sons of PA. He also has been beating Trump, and relatively other Dems V. Trump in Texas, NC, FL, OH, etc.

Liberals should only need Trump on the ballot to be activated. The way to beat Trump is to give swing voters an easy alternative for them. Biden is safe and, so far, he's Teflon. Nothing anybody throws at him actually sticks. That's a useful train when running against Trump.

[Gothmog]

60. Biden continues to perform better than Warren in head-to-head match-ups against Trump

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

61. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[highplainsdem]

62. Wow!

[Gothmog]

63. Biden is at 61% with African American voters

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

64. According to Nate, the media will ignore the CNN poll

Link to tweet