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Undecided 48%
Joe Biden38%
Bernie Sanders14%

Fri Oct 4, 2019, 09:38 AM

 

State of the Battleground - October edition.

1st and September edition here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

Highlights: Only 2 new polls have come out in the battleground states since last months posting. Florida Atlantic University poll put out in the end of September, and an Emmerson poll covering Ohio. All 3 of our frontrunners have lost ground and are now in near tie ups when matched up against the Cheeto in Florida. In Ohio, Biden has slipped by 2 points while Warren and Sanders have both made gains of 5 points and 7 points respectively.

Below is the raw numbers from each of the most recent RCP polls that covers all 3 candidates available. Ones in Bold are the only changes with updated matchup polls.

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Florida Atlantic University - September 2019 (new poll) - MoE 3.1
https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2019/florida-poll-finds-trump-popular-in-the-sunshine-state-while-biden-dominates-democratic-field.php
Biden: -1 loss - Slipped from +9 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Warren: 0 tie - slipped from +4 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: -1 loss - slipped from +6 win from the June Quinnipiac poll


Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019 - MoE 4.2 no new poll
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from this past week - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - slipped from +8 win from July Quinnipiac poll
Warren: +4 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: +6 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll


Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019 Moe 4.0
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019 MoE 4.0
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019 MoE 3.9
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

As before, here are what the maps would look like assuming these polls were election reality. Within the MoE remains battleground, within 2 points outside the MOE will indicate light blue/red indicating "leans", and >2 points outside the MoE will be solid Blue/Red.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply State of the Battleground - October edition. (Original post)
Amimnoch Oct 2019 OP
Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #1
Demsrule86 Oct 2019 #2
Amimnoch Oct 2019 #5
peggysue2 Oct 2019 #3
Tarheel_Dem Oct 2019 #4

Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Fri Oct 4, 2019, 10:08 AM

1. Thx for the great breakdown!

 

Not sure how some can argue that “electability “ is not an issue
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Fri Oct 4, 2019, 10:31 AM

2. We win with Biden clearly...no one else can beat Trump even now.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 5, 2019, 08:18 AM

5. I think it's a bit disingenuous to claim that no one else can,

 

All 3 of the front-runners are well within the ability to win in these key battleground states that will determine the outcome, BUT as of this time and going by the latest polls, it is fair to say that Biden does have the strongest position of the 3.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Fri Oct 4, 2019, 10:33 AM

3. Thanks, Amimnoch

 

Useful and easy to understand format. The Electoral College is where the real battle will be, so this gives us an idea of where we are now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Fri Oct 4, 2019, 03:24 PM

4. Works for me.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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