38%
22%
14%
8%
8%
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 11:57 AM
Amimnoch (4,142 posts)
State of the battleground!
My stated support from the beginning was for the candidate that I believe to be most likely to win in 2020. I also state regularly that I'm putting no stock in national matchups since it's painfully obvious we cannot count on these as they reflect the popular vote more than the Electoral college vote. Below is a look at each of the battleground states, and how the most recent matchup polls in those states are looking.
The below is ordered by the number of EC votes given. Florida - 29 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from June 2019 https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2629 Biden: +9 win Warren: +4 win Sanders: +6 win Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019 https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620 Biden: +11 win Warren: +3 win Sanders: +7 win Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from July 2019 https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/oh/oh07252019_omwb36.pdf/ Biden: +8 win Warren: -1 loss Sanders: -1 loss Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019 https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/ Biden: +10 win Warren: +6 win Sanders: +4 win Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019 https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/ Biden: +2 win Warren: -1 loss Sanders: -10 loss Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019 https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf Biden: +9 win Warren: 0 tie Sanders: +4 win The above are all of the most recent polls, that covered matchups between all 3 candidates and Trump at the RCP site. Below is what the matchup results above would look like on the 270 to win map. If within the margin of error, color remains battleground, if a narrow win light blue, if a solid win (6 points or more) dark blue. Joe Biden map 
Elizabeth Warren map 
Bernie Sanders map 
Very pleased that when it does come down to the critical states (as of latest matchup polls) all 3 of our front running candidates have the ability to take on Cheetolini!
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
20 replies, 673 views
 20 replies |
Author | Time | Post |
 State of the battleground! (Original post) |
Amimnoch | Sep 16 | OP |
| Thekaspervote | Sep 16 | #1 | |
| Funtatlaguy | Sep 16 | #2 | |
| Amimnoch | Sep 16 | #5 | |
| peggysue2 | Sep 16 | #3 | |
| IronLionZion | Sep 16 | #4 | |
| Demsrule86 | Sep 17 | #12 | |
| IronLionZion | Sep 17 | #14 | |
| Demsrule86 | Sep 17 | #16 | |
| Gothmog | Sep 16 | #6 | |
| Rstrstx | Sep 16 | #7 | |
| Amimnoch | Sep 16 | #8 | |
| Tarheel_Dem | Sep 16 | #9 | |
| Amimnoch | Sep 17 | #10 | |
| Demsrule86 | Sep 17 | #11 | |
| Amimnoch | Sep 17 | #13 | |
| Demsrule86 | Sep 17 | #17 | |
| Amimnoch | Sep 17 | #18 | |
| Demsrule86 | Sep 17 | #20 | |
| Kahuna7 | Sep 17 | #15 | |
| peggysue2 | Sep 17 | #19 |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 12:01 PM
Thekaspervote (6,482 posts)
1. Thx again for posting!!
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 12:36 PM
2. I wish it was November 2020 right now.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Elizabeth Warren |
Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #2)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 01:21 PM
Amimnoch (4,142 posts)
5. oh yeah.. November 4th.. results in. Democratic Party President CLEAR winner announced.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 12:39 PM
peggysue2 (5,400 posts)
3. Thanks for the update!
|
If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 12:45 PM
IronLionZion (27,023 posts)
4. Any of our top candidates should inspire tremendous turnout from our side, I hope
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Elizabeth Warren |
Response to IronLionZion (Reply #4)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 08:20 AM
Demsrule86 (35,438 posts)
12. Wisconsin, Wisconsin and Wisconsin...a must win state. I don't see Warren winning this state.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #12)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 08:40 AM
IronLionZion (27,023 posts)
14. Or Florida, PA, Michigan, or some new states
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Elizabeth Warren |
Response to IronLionZion (Reply #14)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 12:01 PM
Demsrule86 (35,438 posts)
16. Polls...Warren was losing the last one.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 02:29 PM
6. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 03:42 PM
7. Your map is too conservative for Biden
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Looking at RCP and putting the states that are within the MOE the map would look like this:
Just looking at the RCP averages the map would look like this. No data is given for GA but given the makeup of similar states it would probably go to Biden as well, giving him over 400 electoral votes: 
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to Rstrstx (Reply #7)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:51 PM
Amimnoch (4,142 posts)
8. Attempting to minimize any controversy.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:58 PM
Tarheel_Dem (29,757 posts)
9. Looks good.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 08:12 AM
Amimnoch (4,142 posts)
10. Thanks!
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 08:18 AM
Demsrule86 (35,438 posts)
11. Clearly Biden has the best chance for a landslide victory that can't be stolen...I would point out
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #11)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 08:28 AM
Amimnoch (4,142 posts)
13. Ohio's my biggest focus at this time.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Reply #13)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 12:03 PM
Demsrule86 (35,438 posts)
17. I live in Ohio...and Trump is under water here...but Warren won't win here...the voters who don't
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #17)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 12:14 PM
Amimnoch (4,142 posts)
18. Nice! Kind of wish I lived there as well.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Reply #18)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 12:21 PM
Demsrule86 (35,438 posts)
20. We have a shot...my son in in Indiana and he feels likey you do...
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 09:00 AM
15. Hey! I have an idea! Let's take a chance on someone who is within the MoE!!!!
|
Just kidding.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Amimnoch (Original post)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 12:18 PM
peggysue2 (5,400 posts)
19. Kick!
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
