State of the battleground!

[Amimnoch]

My stated support from the beginning was for the candidate that I believe to be most likely to win in 2020. I also state regularly that I'm putting no stock in national matchups since it's painfully obvious we cannot count on these as they reflect the popular vote more than the Electoral college vote. Below is a look at each of the battleground states, and how the most recent matchup polls in those states are looking.

The below is ordered by the number of EC votes given.

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from June 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2629
Biden: +9 win
Warren: +4 win
Sanders: +6 win

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from July 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/oh/oh07252019_omwb36.pdf/
Biden: +8 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -1 loss

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

The above are all of the most recent polls, that covered matchups between all 3 candidates and Trump at the RCP site.

Below is what the matchup results above would look like on the 270 to win map. If within the margin of error, color remains battleground, if a narrow win light blue, if a solid win (6 points or more) dark blue.

Joe Biden map



Elizabeth Warren map



Bernie Sanders map


Very pleased that when it does come down to the critical states (as of latest matchup polls) all 3 of our front running candidates have the ability to take on Cheetolini!

[Thekaspervote]

1. Thx again for posting!!

Go Joe go!! We’ve got your back

[Funtatlaguy]

2. I wish it was November 2020 right now.

[Amimnoch]

5. oh yeah.. November 4th.. results in. Democratic Party President CLEAR winner announced.

Although even then, it may be safer to wish for January 21st 2021 instead. I'm not entirely confident this creature won't drive a real and dangerous Constitutional crisis if he is announced the loser on November 4th.

[peggysue2]

3. Thanks for the update!

The electoral college tally is what it is all about. Something we sadly learned in 2016.

Important information!

[IronLionZion]

4. Any of our top candidates should inspire tremendous turnout from our side, I hope

since the other side might be less excited about their's. The novelty of "shaking things up" with Trump might have worn off on some of their voters.

Biden would be our second Irish Catholic president so I would hope he chooses a woman or minority VP if he's the nominee, to make history again like how voters turned out big for Obama.

[Demsrule86]

12. Wisconsin, Wisconsin and Wisconsin...a must win state. I don't see Warren winning this state.

A close election will be won or lost in Wisconsin.

[IronLionZion]

14. Or Florida, PA, Michigan, or some new states

What makes you think Biden will inspire higher turnout in Wisconsin? That state has been losing population. Florida and southern states have been gaining population.

[Demsrule86]

16. Polls...Warren was losing the last one.

Also, the fact that she has adopted postitions like MFA. Wisconsin is a moderate state.

[Gothmog]

6. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

[Rstrstx]

7. Your map is too conservative for Biden

Looking at RCP and putting the states that are within the MOE the map would look like this:



Just looking at the RCP averages the map would look like this. No data is given for GA but given the makeup of similar states it would probably go to Biden as well, giving him over 400 electoral votes:

[Amimnoch]

8. Attempting to minimize any controversy.

There are certainly other ways to approach, such as using RCP averages, adding in some of the other “lean’s” states instead of just the established key battleground.

I figured sticking to just the key battleground states, and sticking to just the latest A rated poll that covers all 3 front runners would be the least controversial approach and less open to claims of bias, or selecting states for the best picture etc., and would eliminate the polls that might not cover all 3 candidates in matchups, or not be as accredited that are worked into the full RCP average.

[Tarheel_Dem]

9. Looks good.

[Amimnoch]

10. Thanks!

We've got to focus on this map throughout the process.

Really wish our pool of candidate would stop making "congress" promises that none of them will be able to keep and start focusing the narrative on things the President CAN do. Things they will do to repair our image abroad. How they will stop rewarding and loving on our long standing adversaries. How they will renew our ties and trust with our long standing allies. How they will repair global trade policies. How they will repair the damage that's been done to our judiciary appointments. How they will repair the executive orders attacking immigrants. How their appointed department heads will repair the damage done to immigration starting with removing children from cages.

MFA/ACA - that's Congress.
Jobs/education/workers rights - that's mostly through congress, although they should hit on how they will repair the DeVos destruction within the department of education.

Edit: was supposed to be a reply to Tarheel Dem post #9. I'm not Schizophrenic and discussing with myself.

[Demsrule86]

11. Clearly Biden has the best chance for a landslide victory that can't be stolen...I would point out

that Wisonsin is a must win state for us. I believe the election will come down to Wisconsin. And based on your informatoin and other information...he is the only one who will win Wisconsin.

[Amimnoch]

13. Ohio's my biggest focus at this time.

That state seems to have a long and real knack on picking with where the winds are blowing. No president since JFK has risen to the office without Ohio's EC votes.

[Demsrule86]

17. I live in Ohio...and Trump is under water here...but Warren won't win here...the voters who don't

like Trump like her less...and will stay home or hold their noses.

[Amimnoch]

18. Nice! Kind of wish I lived there as well.

Would be wonderful to be in an area where busting my ass to canvass had a chance of reaping real rewards! I still will given almost any Primary outcome, but it'll be a labor of love not productivity. I'm afraid that.. once again.. my state almost definitely will go for the Cheeto.

[Demsrule86]

20. We have a shot...my son in in Indiana and he feels likey you do...

[Kahuna7]

15. Hey! I have an idea! Let's take a chance on someone who is within the MoE!!!!

Just kidding.

[peggysue2]

19. Kick!

Because this is the true battleground on which we will live or die!