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Undecided 36%
Elizabeth Warren21%
Joe Biden13%
Kamala Harris9%
Bernie Sanders8%

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 10:48 PM

 

Nate Silver: A lot of Democrats are closer to Biden than Warren/Sanders *on the issues*





One thing I don't think people get is that a lot of Democrats are closer to Biden than Warren/Sanders *on the issues*. Even among Democrats, slightly more voters are worried that the party will nominate someone too liberal than someone not liberal enough.
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/11/rel10b.-.2020.pdf Ö
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Arrow 58 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver: A lot of Democrats are closer to Biden than Warren/Sanders *on the issues* (Original post)
highplainsdem Wednesday OP
calguy Wednesday #1
5starlib Wednesday #7
RandiFan1290 Thursday #29
True Blue American Thursday #38
TheRealNorth Thursday #51
calguy Thursday #54
Gothmog Wednesday #2
madville Wednesday #3
Cha Wednesday #6
Thekaspervote Wednesday #8
emmaverybo Thursday #15
True Blue American Thursday #39
napi21 Thursday #26
True Blue American Thursday #40
IronLionZion Thursday #49
onetexan Thursday #27
thesquanderer Thursday #33
onetexan Thursday #45
TheRealNorth Wednesday #4
highplainsdem Wednesday #5
mwooldri Thursday #20
BeyondGeography Wednesday #9
BlueMTexpat Thursday #55
BeyondGeography Thursday #57
Desert grandma Wednesday #10
mr_liberal Wednesday #11
Scurrilous Thursday #12
JI7 Thursday #13
True Blue American Thursday #41
peggysue2 Thursday #14
emmaverybo Thursday #16
BlueTsunami2018 Thursday #17
NNadir Thursday #18
Gothmog Thursday #19
mwooldri Thursday #21
napi21 Thursday #28
thesquanderer Thursday #34
True Blue American Thursday #44
highplainsdem Thursday #46
True Blue American Thursday #47
highplainsdem Thursday #48
yaesu Thursday #22
betsuni Thursday #23
Cha Thursday #25
LanternWaste Thursday #50
BlueMississippi Thursday #24
Amimnoch Thursday #30
betsuni Thursday #31
MFM008 Thursday #32
4139 Thursday #35
TwilightZone Thursday #53
thesquanderer Thursday #36
SKKY Thursday #37
ecstatic Thursday #42
NYMinute Thursday #43
Tarheel_Dem Thursday #52
DrFunkenstein Thursday #56
Gothmog 13 hrs ago #58

Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 10:56 PM

1. Raising my hand

 

I'm one of those democrats Nate is talking about.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to calguy (Reply #1)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:31 PM

7. Shhh...don't say that here

 

You'll get labeled a Republican.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to 5starlib (Reply #7)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 06:01 AM

29. Welcome Back to DU!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to calguy (Reply #1)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 09:01 AM

38. So am I!

 

Moderate Democrat!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to calguy (Reply #1)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:59 PM

51. I am a liberal Democrat who voted for Hillary in 2016 and was leaning toward Biden in the primary

 

But all the Biden people coming out and slamming liberal Democrats has me rethinking that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to TheRealNorth (Reply #51)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 03:55 PM

54. If that's the sole basis for re-thinking your support for a candidate

 

you might want to re think your thinking process. Maybe it's just me, but I choose my favorite candidate based on his or her experience and positions on various issues. No way would I or should I ever choose a candidate based on what others say on a discussion board.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:01 PM

2. I am far closer to Biden than Warren or sanders

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:01 PM

3. This is why Joe has a great advantage

 

Just about everyone below Biden now wants to prove how "liberal" or "progressive" they are while Joe has the space a little closer to the middle almost all to himself at this point. Warren and Sanders staying in as long as they possibly can will ensure a Biden victory.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to madville (Reply #3)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:24 PM

6. Good analysis.. Thanks

 

madville!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to madville (Reply #3)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:31 PM

8. This!!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to madville (Reply #3)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:09 AM

15. Biden's policies make sense and are doable. He is focusing on some big, priority issues along

 

with what will be first orders of businessórolling back the tax cuts, getting back into climate accords, restoring our alliances, protecting Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Making Obamacare work as was intended. He is in line with the majority of the Dem party.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to emmaverybo (Reply #15)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 09:03 AM

39. Pretty much what Obama

 

Had to do.

BTW, I also see a recession coming. Same as Obama!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to madville (Reply #3)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 02:42 AM

26. My dream ticket is Biden/Warren.

 

Biden can get votes from the left, right & center, and Warren would keep him thinking forward. Plus, it would gain the votes of many of the JA's that couldn't vote for a woman for President.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to napi21 (Reply #26)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 09:05 AM

40. I do agree!

 

One to clean up the Republican mess, the other to work hard on turning it around for the middle class.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to napi21 (Reply #26)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:38 PM

49. That could be a great ticket since Warren is the big planner

 

Kamala could be a good Attorney General
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to madville (Reply #3)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 02:44 AM

27. I think re: the staying in part may be applicable to Elizabeth, sanders not so much

 

He's out to get himself elected
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to onetexan (Reply #27)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 07:22 AM

33. Sanders & Warren are both staying in to try to win.

 

The post you replied to was suggesting that, the longer they both stay in, the better it is for Joe, not that they are staying in for the purpose of helping Joe.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #33)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 09:47 AM

45. Yes but once its clear Joe is the clear front runner Elizabeth will bow out

 

Bernie will cry fowl saying it was rigged, etc like he did last time.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:10 PM

4. Whats the "cdn" in front of the CNN link mean?

 

I did a search on the CNN website and 538 and can't find it?

I don't click on pdf links since I have seen foreign actors using pdf's to spread computer worms/viruses.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to TheRealNorth (Reply #4)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:20 PM

5. That's the link for the PDF file of complete poll results given in CNN's main story about it.

 

Nate Silver was just linking directly to that

Here's the link to the main CNN story:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/11/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-renominate-trump/index.html

After the first two paragraphs there you'll see Related: Full poll results. That's the link Silver was using.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TheRealNorth (Reply #4)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:48 AM

20. Content Delivery Network.

 

Basically an address for mirror servers so that data is served quicker.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:49 PM

9. One says potato, one says potahto

 

t
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #9)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 05:52 PM

55. Exactly.

 

Too much damage has been done to our country and our institutions simply to return to the status quo ante Trump.

I also recall the 1990s when mainstream Dems moved too much towards GOPer philosophy. Then Bush II really messed things up.

Prez Obama had to work like mad to get us anywhere close to normal again - and he was not helped by Mitch McConnell at all. "Moderate" Dems of the Rahm Emanuel ilk were also not helpful, e.g., they were instrumental in keeping the public option off the table and keeping Howard Dean out of HHS.

I truly fear that equivocation happening again.

We need a fighter! That is why I prefer Elizabeth Warren.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #55)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 06:06 PM

57. The economy is so out of whack

 

even the Business Roundtable is signaling theyíre ready for change. Opportunity is staring us in the face but it will take guts and commitment to make the most of it. Warren fits the moment.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:53 PM

10. I am one of those Dems too!

 

Been a Democrat all my voting life which is a long time. Hubby and I both support Biden because we are closer to most of his views on the issues than Warren or Sanders. And we vote. In every election.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 11:59 PM

11. This vaping issue is a landmine for Biden and all the Democrats

 

in the upcoming debate. I know if Biden comes out for a ban it's going to be a huge turnoff for me, and I assume a lot of voters. I don't think Democrats understand how potent this issue is, especially for young voters.

Luckily Trump is just as bad, but this is an issue that calls for a measured response at least and to not come off like a authoritarian drug warrior.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:01 AM

12. ...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:01 AM

13. Warren has unfairly been tied to Sanders. most of her supporters are educated women

 

who consider themselves to be mainstream Democrats.

but they have actually listened to her.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to JI7 (Reply #13)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 09:08 AM

41. Once again

 

Agree 100%!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:02 AM

14. Yes!!

 

Silver's tweet aligns with what we already know: The largest sector of the Democratic Party resides in the slightly liberal/moderate/conservative sector, the very lane that Biden chose and now holds. And the electability factor--though pooh-poohed by many on the left and the media--is still considered important by the electorate. In fact, I read today that 58% of voters want a candidate they perceive can wallop Trump as opposed to policy considerations they may prefer. Despite all the yammering, Joe Biden's positions are more progressive than he's given credit for, more progressive than Hillary Clinton's were when the Democratic platform was hailed as the most progressive in the last 40 years.

We shall see. I still think this is going to come down to Biden vs Warren. And ultimately? I believe Joe Biden will be our nominee and then he'll send Donald Trump and his criminal enterprise to hell. Where they belong!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to peggysue2 (Reply #14)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:10 AM

16. +1000

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:13 AM

17. Yes, only the right has no limit to how far they can go.

 

Itís fucked up but thatís the truth. No one ever claims theyíre going too far right.

But when people hear that their good healthcare will be taken away for some unknown, that we want to decriminalize the border, let prisoners vote and things like that, it scares the shit out of them. You have to get people to these places incrementally. This isnít a big radical change election, this is a return to normality election.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:19 AM

18. Of course, whatever Nate Silver thinks does not compel anyone else to think accordingly.

 

I rather object to deciding the nominee based on pundit opinion, even pundit/pollster's opinion.

I'm not entirely convinced that Nate Silver is equipped to fully decide what Democrats as a whole think. For instance, he didn't ask me.

As it happens, I have no vote in who the party chooses, since I live in New Jersey and the candidate will be more or less decided before we have a primary here, but still...

...If we were to choose our candidates by acclamation, we would no longer need to hold primaries/elections since we would have big "informed" guys to decide for us, wouldn't we?

I am decidedly not entirely comfortable with all of the positions that my preferred candidate holds, but I am rather impressed by her way of doing business, which is, by the way, not involved with smoke filled rooms or the modern day equivalent.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:28 AM

19. NEW POLL: Biden's health care proposal more popular than Medicare for All

 




A new poll finds that more voters favor an optional government-run health insurance plan, as former Vice President Joe Biden advocates, than full-scale "Medicare for All" that eliminates private health insurance, as advocated by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

The poll could give credence to Biden's argument against his main two rivals in the Democratic White House race, Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), that an optional plan is more popular in a general election than the full-scale Medicare for All that Sanders and Warren advocate.

The USC/Los Angeles Times poll finds that 48 percent of eligible voters surveyed support giving everyone the option of a government-run health insurance plan, compared to just 14 percent who oppose it. Thirty-eight percent had not heard enough to have an opinion.

The full-scale Medicare for All, which eliminates private health insurance, polls somewhat worse. That proposal gets 39 percent support to 34 percent opposition.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #19)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:07 AM

21. And why I wouldn't support Biden in the primary.

 

Health Care is a big issue for me.

Medicare for All ensures everyone gets health insurance coverage. Biden and his ACA 2.0 leaves people behind. His plan covers 97%. The Sanders and Warren Medicare for All plans cover 100%.

Being a British ex-pat, America's patchwork system of health care has just confused me. The NHS is simpler - you're sick, you call the doctor, you see the doctor, you get a prescription, the prescription gets filled and you go home and rest. No doctor copay. Small copay for medicine in England, and exemptions available. My wife (US Citizen, not on NHS) had to see the doctor in England and the doctor's office did not know what to charge her for a doctor's visit. I believe we agreed to pay £20....

Going to Medicare for All from our present system will be a big change. However if the USA can put a human on the moon and bring them back safely then shouldn't the USA be able to have health care for all?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mwooldri (Reply #21)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 02:55 AM

28. Medicare does't cover a lot of treatments and Docs are paid a misderably low rate.

 

None of the candidates have elaborated on just what their Medicare for All would cover. IMO unless the current program is not changed it may not be the HC system that you want.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to napi21 (Reply #28)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 07:44 AM

34. MFA covers more than today's Medicare coverage, and candidates HAVE elaborated on it.

 

see https://www.factcheck.org/2019/04/the-facts-on-medicare-for-all/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #19)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 09:35 AM

44. Just like the ACA

 

First they have to strengthen that. Then go to the next step!

Who is hosting the debate tonight? Can not find it on the TV guide.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to True Blue American (Reply #44)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 10:33 AM

46. ABC, at 8 EDT.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #46)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:28 PM

47. Thanks!

 

I had to google for a friend.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to True Blue American (Reply #47)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:31 PM

48. You're welcome! And this might help:

 

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287273878
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:12 AM

22. thanks for the laugh, TOO LIBERAL

 

Sounds like something a republican would say, oh wait, Silver is a repug.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to yaesu (Reply #22)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:20 AM

23. Silver is not a Republican.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to yaesu (Reply #22)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 02:35 AM

25. I would like to see proof of your accusation that

 

Nate Silver is a "repug".
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to yaesu (Reply #22)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:54 PM

50. Silver? Or your post? Given lack of context, confusing to determine.

 

"Sounds like something a republican would say..."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:58 AM

24. Great analysis

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 06:21 AM

30. Biden supporter, but not my own cause for being.

 

When Iím looking a the primaries for my senators and representative, I care a LOT about issues.

For the President, not quite as much. Bills that are passed into law make positions happen. Congress writes the laws, the president only has one role.. yes or Veto.

As just one hot position example, MFA or enhanced ACA? It doesnít matter what the president is for. What matters is what Congress passes. For the POTUS, what matters to me is that itís someone that I can rely to pass any hard fought for laws that pass congress that does move our agenda forward. I trust Warren 100% to do so. I trust Biden to do so. Bernie, not so much.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Reply #30)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 06:58 AM

31. +1

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 07:05 AM

32. Right now i support Warren

 

But if Bidens the nominee he will get my vote.
Plus im sure her or Kamala will be on the ticket.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 07:47 AM

35. "Democratic-leaning independents" are independents.... shame on Nate!

 

He is not that stupid, heís being a weasel con
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to 4139 (Reply #35)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 02:53 PM

53. Most independents already lean one way or the other.

 

They just don't make it official for various reasons. The percentage of voters who are truly non-partisan is pretty small, generally in the single digits.

Democratic-leaning independents are an important part of our voting bloc. We won't win any national elections without them. Some of them are more reliable Democratic voters than a lot of self-professed liberals/progressives, such as those who supported Jill Stein in 2016.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 07:50 AM

36. Bad tweet. The two sentences are not necessarily related.

 

The fact that more Dems worry that we may nominate someone too far left does NOT mean that they agree more with Biden on the issues. It could also mean they agree more with Warren/Sanders on the issues, but are less confident that those positions will win in the general election.

Which isn't to say that a lot of Dems are closer to Biden on the issues... of course there are a lot who are, and a lot who aren't. But the poll question referenced does not necessarily correlate with how many there are of each.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 08:42 AM

37. He's not wrong. Based on the Democrats I have around me...

 

...and my own personal beliefs, I think Silver is probably spot on.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 09:21 AM

42. That's odd that people wouldn't get that

 

considering how the 2016 primaries went (Hillary beat Sanders by millions of votes).

You could say I'm an Obama (Biden) Democrat. Biden is the only candidate who seems to be able to connect with people (from all races and backgrounds) on an emotional level. I am probably more aligned with Biden's platform than Warren's.

That being said, Warren won me over with her clear stance on impeachment. She has kept me by demonstrating that she is prepared, thoughtful, and constantly seeking out new information regarding problems and potential solutions. I love that!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 09:25 AM

43. K&R

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Beto O'Rourke

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 02:24 PM

52. K&R

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 06:00 PM

56. Lots of People LIKE Wall Street Execs, Lobbyists, Deregulated Housing Markets, Etc.

 

It's all these long-haired hippies with their free love and dancing that want to stop the rotating door between K Street and our elected representatives.

Not on my watch, beatniks!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Sep 15, 2019, 12:43 PM

58. Warren and Sanders say Americans don't like their health insurance. Polls don't back that up.

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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