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Democratic Primaries

brooklynite

(94,373 posts) Tue Sep 3, 2019, 10:41 PM Sep 2019

7

Second outlier poll of the season...

Link to tweet

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

17 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Second outlier poll of the season... (Original Post) brooklynite Sep 2019 OP

The more frequent outliers are, the less they can be called outliers. Tiggeroshii Sep 2019 #1

In all the dozens, if not hundreds, of polls released so far, only two are considered "outliers".... George II Sep 2019 #9

Two is not a trend. TwilightZone Sep 2019 #15

What do you know of this pollster. I don't see them listed on 538's pollster ratings... hlthe2b Sep 2019 #2

You have to click the "Show more pollsters" button to get to their rating. C+ rating, 57% accuracy highplainsdem Sep 2019 #4

I did, but I must have missed it in the "line-up"... Thanks hlthe2b Sep 2019 #5

One semester I had a C+ average, I was called out on the carpet by the Dean of Students! George II Sep 2019 #10

The C+ isn't the real problem. It's that 57% accuracy rate in predicting races. highplainsdem Sep 2019 #11

Yes. Hah, that was about my average on my finals (the curve got me to C+!) George II Sep 2019 #14

LOL! They've had Warren ahead for two months already. highplainsdem Sep 2019 #3

When there are other polls out today, that are not the same.. Monmouth u admitting a misstep Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #6

Odd that it is not on their website. Eko Sep 2019 #7

They haven't updated that page yet. Here's a link to my thread with the new poll's link highplainsdem Sep 2019 #12

Lol. Horrible poll. Joe941 Sep 2019 #8

Live by the polls... JoeOtterbein Sep 2019 #13

57%is an F- tirebiter Sep 2019 #16

I think many people are undecided. I have a preference butas time goes on and there napi21 Sep 2019 #17

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

1. The more frequent outliers are, the less they can be called outliers.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 10:45 PM

Sep 2019

There's also the little fact that outliers can sometimes be correct, and often were in 2016.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

9. In all the dozens, if not hundreds, of polls released so far, only two are considered "outliers"....

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:06 PM

Sep 2019

....what frequency are you looking for?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,429 posts)

15. Two is not a trend.

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:18 PM

Sep 2019

Particularly when one of the two was declared an outlier by the pollster themselves.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

hlthe2b

(102,141 posts)

2. What do you know of this pollster. I don't see them listed on 538's pollster ratings...

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 10:47 PM

Sep 2019

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(48,919 posts)

4. You have to click the "Show more pollsters" button to get to their rating. C+ rating, 57% accuracy

Reply to hlthe2b (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 10:50 PM

Sep 2019

in calling races.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

hlthe2b

(102,141 posts)

5. I did, but I must have missed it in the "line-up"... Thanks

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #4)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 10:53 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

10. One semester I had a C+ average, I was called out on the carpet by the Dean of Students!

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #4)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:07 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(48,919 posts)

11. The C+ isn't the real problem. It's that 57% accuracy rate in predicting races.

Reply to George II (Reply #10)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:13 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

14. Yes. Hah, that was about my average on my finals (the curve got me to C+!)

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #11)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:18 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(48,919 posts)

3. LOL! They've had Warren ahead for two months already.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 10:47 PM

Sep 2019

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287264046

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,715 posts)

6. When there are other polls out today, that are not the same.. Monmouth u admitting a misstep

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 10:55 PM

Sep 2019

One has to wonder.

Accuracy 57%..what was the size polled, phone, internet??

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Eko

(7,246 posts)

7. Odd that it is not on their website.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 10:56 PM

Sep 2019

https://www.changeresearch.com/latest-findings
At least I couldn't find it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(48,919 posts)

12. They haven't updated that page yet. Here's a link to my thread with the new poll's link

Reply to Eko (Reply #7)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:17 PM

Sep 2019

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287264046

which I got from FiveThirtyEight's list of the latest polls:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Joe941

(2,848 posts)

8. Lol. Horrible poll.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:01 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

JoeOtterbein

(7,699 posts)

13. Live by the polls...

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:18 PM

Sep 2019

...deceived by the polls.

Way too soon for anyone to claim "front runner status."

Without a future of maybe getting bitten on the behind!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

tirebiter

(2,533 posts)

16. 57%is an F-

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:20 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

napi21

(45,806 posts)

17. I think many people are undecided. I have a preference butas time goes on and there

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:22 PM

Sep 2019

are more "debates" I could change my mind. Wait until there are some actual votes cast and we'll get closer to the real preferred candidate. Anything can happen over the next several months, and any candidate can slip up, possibly bad enough to eliminate them from the running.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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