Fri Aug 30, 2019, 09:25 AM

How Much Of A Threat Is Elizabeth Warren To Joe Biden's Front-Runner Status?

Interesting discussion from 538.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-of-a-threat-is-warren-to-bidens-front-runner-status/

There are lots of good snippets, but no real conclusion. Here's one section:

...
natesilver: Not in my view, no. I think Warren and Biden are No. 1 and 2 for likelihood of winning the nomination in some order, and I think Sanders is No. 3.

Why? First of all, Warren’s polls are a bit better than Sanders. She has roughly equal support nationally despite being less well known, and she has slightly better net favorables. She’s doing better in Iowa. And she has more upward momentum, although that can be overrated.

Second, if you put any weight on the sort of “party decides” view of the race, the party establishment seems to view her as being quite a bit more acceptable than Bernie, although she doesn’t have a ton of endorsements yet.

nrakich: Yeah, Sanders does not appear to be interested in expanding his coalition; he’s pretty much been stuck polling in the same 15-to-18 percent range since Biden entered the race, whereas Warren has been steadily winning people over. According to The Economist, only 38 percent of Democrats are considering voting for Sanders, whereas 49 percent are considering voting for Warren … which is even (slightly) more than the 48 percent who are considering voting for Biden!
...

Note: there seems to be a good article in today's LA Times as well. But I've exhausted my quota of free articles there. So if someone else would like to post snippets, please do do.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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5 replies	Author	Time	Post
How Much Of A Threat Is Elizabeth Warren To Joe Biden's Front-Runner Status? (Original post)	BlueMTexpat	Aug 2019	OP
Really don't like 538s choice of headline.	blm	Aug 2019	#1
They were just tossing ideas around, in the wake of that Monmouth poll, before it was shown to be an	highplainsdem	Aug 2019	#4
Probably more of a threat than Sanders because she's been gaining supporters at Sanders' expense,	highplainsdem	Aug 2019	#2
Threat?	DownriverDem	Aug 2019	#3
Not the right question	FBaggins	Aug 2019	#5

Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 09:47 AM

blm (106,095 posts)

1. Really don't like 538s choice of headline.

It is written to create trouble, not clarity.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to blm (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 09:53 AM

highplainsdem (33,342 posts)

4. They were just tossing ideas around, in the wake of that Monmouth poll, before it was shown to be an

outlier. And Nate Silver admitted he was playing devil's advocate there, talking up Warren's chances even though he wasn't completely convinced of them.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 09:51 AM

highplainsdem (33,342 posts)

2. Probably more of a threat than Sanders because she's been gaining supporters at Sanders' expense,

as is pointed out there and has been pointed out elsewhere.

But she's much less a threat to Biden than her supporters would like her to be. Even if Sanders and Harris and Buttigieg all dropped out, the polling done on second choices so far suggests Biden would get at least as many of their supporters as Warren would.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 09:53 AM

DownriverDem (4,740 posts)

3. Threat?

Come on. Our focus should be on beating trump. trump does not want to run against Biden. We really need Warren to stay in the Senate. We need the Senate and we need to beat trump. Warren is excellent in the Senate. Biden running with a strong, progressive, Dem woman would be a formidable ticket. Beating trump is all that matters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 09:58 AM

FBaggins (21,291 posts)

5. Not the right question

Biden is the greatest threat to Biden's front-runner status.

That's not a comment on how gaffe-prone he is. It's just that candidates with that large a lead normally lose them (if at all) to their own mistakes once support levels have solidified to some extent.

So Warren isn't a "threat" to his lead. She's just the one most likely to benefit if/when he stumbles.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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