HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » What Elizabeth Warren's m...
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Wed Aug 28, 2019, 06:07 PM

 

What Elizabeth Warren's massive crowds tell us

Over the weekend, Elizabeth Warren spoke in front of 15,000 people at a campaign rally in Seattle, Washington.
It was, by her campaign's estimates, the single largest crowd the Massachusetts Senator has drawn in her nearly year-long quest to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. (The 15,000 number came from Warren's campaign so take it with a grain of salt. But it's clear from the photos there were a WHOLE lot of people there.)

And, the Seattle crowd wasn't an anomaly. In St. Paul, Minnesota last week, Warren's campaign estimated 12,000 people turned out to see her. She had an estimated 4,000 people at a town hall in Los Angeles earlier this month.

So, what does crowd size tell us -- exactly?


Well, that depends. Politicos will remember that in the late stages of the 2012 presidential campaign, Mitt Romney was convinced he was going to beat President Obama because -- at least in part -- the size of the crowds coming to his rallies. Romney didn't win -- or even come close.

On the other hand, the massive crowds that Obama was able to draw -- both as a surrogate for other candidates in the 2006 cycle and then in his own right as a presidential contender in 2008 -- were a telling indicator of the organic passion and energy he was creating within the electorate.
[snip]
When you factor in that context, Warren's crowds of late almost certainly are an indicator of genuine momentum and excitement surrounding her candidacy. No matter what any of her rivals might say behind closed doors (or in public) about what Warren's crowds mean (or don't mean), you can be sure that each and every one of them would LOVE to be able to draw in the numbers that the Massachusetts Senator is right now.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/elizabeth-warren-crowd-size-2020/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

33 replies, 1194 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 33 replies Author Time Post
Reply What Elizabeth Warren's massive crowds tell us (Original post)
bluewater Aug 2019 OP
Blue_true Aug 2019 #1
Kahuna7 Aug 2019 #2
elocs Aug 2019 #28
JI7 Aug 2019 #6
Blue_true Aug 2019 #8
Kahuna7 Aug 2019 #30
ehrnst Aug 2019 #7
Tarheel_Dem Aug 2019 #3
crazytown Aug 2019 #4
bluewater Aug 2019 #11
crazytown Aug 2019 #14
bluewater Aug 2019 #15
crazytown Aug 2019 #16
bluewater Aug 2019 #17
crazytown Aug 2019 #18
bluewater Aug 2019 #22
crazytown Aug 2019 #23
bluewater Aug 2019 #24
crazytown Aug 2019 #25
bluewater Aug 2019 #26
bluewater Aug 2019 #12
Tarheel_Dem Aug 2019 #32
MineralMan Aug 2019 #5
bluewater Aug 2019 #10
MineralMan Aug 2019 #19
bluewater Aug 2019 #21
MineralMan Aug 2019 #31
Trenzalore Aug 2019 #9
Vegas Roller Aug 2019 #13
Otto Lidenbrock Aug 2019 #20
Kurt V. Aug 2019 #27
customerserviceguy Aug 2019 #29
cwydro Aug 2019 #33

Response to bluewater (Original post)

Wed Aug 28, 2019, 11:52 PM

1. Bernie drew large crowds in 2016 and lost.

 

But from what I see, the Warren crowds are different, older people and a lot of young families.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Blue_true (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 05:56 AM

2. He lost by almost 4 million votes. Hillary also got more votes than trump. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Kahuna7 (Reply #2)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 07:49 PM

28. Yes, and all 4 million of those voters were in on the conspiracy to rob Bernie of the nomination. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Blue_true (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 09:04 AM

6. that's becsuse the same people were going to all his rallies

 

even in areas with large minority populations the audiences were mostly white.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JI7 (Reply #6)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 05:45 PM

8. I saw the racial makeup, it was glaring. Even this year we have seen that. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JI7 (Reply #6)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 04:47 AM

30. This is true. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Blue_true (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 09:14 AM

7. He also made it a point to choose locations near college campuses

 

where there would be energetic attendees with flexible schedules.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 07:01 AM

3. "The polls are what the polls are".

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #3)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 08:44 AM

4. "The polls are what the polls are"

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #4)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:11 PM

11. Large enthusiastic crowds are what large enthusiastic crowds are.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Reply #11)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:22 PM

14. Let the golf balls fall where they may

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #14)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:34 PM

15. You need to keep the rhetorical repetition for the phrasing to really work...

 

So...

Let the golf balls fall where the golf balls fall.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Reply #15)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:41 PM

16. if you say so

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #16)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:42 PM

17. I do.

 

Was that from Biden's speech today? The one about the war story?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Reply #17)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:44 PM

18. I don't listen to Biden's speeches.

 

Do you?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #18)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 07:04 PM

22. I read about his talk today in the Washington Post.

 

It's all over the news, apparently.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Reply #22)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 07:09 PM

23. Oh right

 

I'm a big time Biden supporter
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #23)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 07:14 PM

24. You're a big time Biden supporter?

 

But your primary preference shows Warren's pic...

Did someone say you were a Biden supporter? I mean, not that there is anything wrong with that...

Is he your second or third favorite or something?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Reply #24)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 07:17 PM

25. cu

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #25)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 07:18 PM

26. Have a nice evening!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #3)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:11 PM

12. Large enthusiastic crowds are what large enthusiastic crowds are.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Reply #12)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 04:24 PM

32. And we all know "large enthusiastic crowds" win primaries. Oh wait...

 

"The polls are what the polls are".
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 08:57 AM

5. What percentage is 12,000 out of the MSP metro area's population of 3+ million?

 

Large turnouts indicate a lot of interest among those who show up. NFL games have large turnouts, too.

Beyond that, they don't say much about turnout in the primary elections that will be held in Minnesota on March 3. They just say that 12,000 people are interested enough in Warren to show up when she's in town.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MineralMan (Reply #5)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:11 PM

10. Just a hint of jealousy perhaps?

 

Perhaps.

Large enthusiastic crowds are what large enthusiastic crowds are.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Reply #10)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:51 PM

19. Jealousy? Of what?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MineralMan (Reply #19)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 07:02 PM

21. Oh, hey, welcome back before January!

 

Your crowd-size-to-total-metro-area-population-percentage argument... well, the less said about that the better, eh?

So, are you jealous of the large enthusiastic crowds Elizabeth Warren is drawing? Is that possible?

Again, welcome back.

And btw I bought your book off Amazon!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Reply #21)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 11:28 AM

31. Oh, for pete's sake.

 

What do you care whether I post or do not post? In any case, you are misremembering what I wrote, but it doesn't matter. People here change their minds all the time. I reserve the right to post as I please, when I please.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:08 PM

9. Drawing crowds is nice

 

If you don't have volunteer organizers at the event to sign up the people in the crowd for a phone banking shift or a door knocking shift it is a giant waste of time for a public spectacle.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:12 PM

13. Mondale drew large crowds in 1984

 

Ron Paul drew large crowds in 2004

Crowds mean nothing.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 06:54 PM

20. Ron Paul 2012

 





If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 07:32 PM

27. its warren or biden. love the rest but that's that.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 09:11 PM

29. I used to live in Washington State

 

and we didn't often get Presidential candidates this early in the process, so, yes, there would be a big turnout for Sen. Warren. I remember being part of the large group that welcomed Jerry Brown to Olympia, WA in 1992, and I even got close enough to get his autograph. But, he was a West coast politician, and it was not surprising that he would make the trip up north.

Washington is a very reliably blue state, the last time they went for a GOP'er in a Presidential election was 1984, when Reagan won nearly all of the blue states. WA hasn't had a Republican Senator since 2000, nor a Republican governor since the early Eighties. It's no surprise to see that Sen. Warren attracted a large audience at the time she came.

Washington did two significant things for the upcoming election, first, they got rid of the caucus system for choosing convention delegates, moving to a primary system, and then they moved the primary earlier, a mere week after Super Tuesday. So, Sen. Warren was smart to go to WA, if she falters a bit on Super Tuesday, where eight of the fourteen states are traditionally GOP-leaning states, then WA can give her a boost a week later.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bluewater (Original post)

Fri Aug 30, 2019, 04:42 PM

33. Rec!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread