OMG, Sanders within 8.1% of Biden in RCP POLLS Tracker !

[bluewater]

While we were all focused on Biden in the Monmouth Poll, the CNN Poll, the Hill/HarrisX Poll, the Emerson Poll and the MorningConsult Poll, we all forgot to look at Sanders gaining ground.

According to the RCP Polls Tracker, Biden's AVERAGE lead in the polls is now down to just 8.1% over Sanders in second place.

As some better polls for Biden dropped off the tracker, his AVERAGE level of support is now 27.3% compared to the surging Sanders at 19.2%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Disclaimer: It is over 5 months until actual voting starts. No single poll's results should be overemphasized.

Well, I guess I was right when I said that the race for the 2020 Democratic Nomination remains wide open.
Biden no longer has a double digit lead over his nearest rival.

Is this a sign of things to come?

[emmaverybo]

1. Busy bee churning out anti-Biden posts. I don't understand why you don't spend more energy and

time promoting your candidate rather than attempting to discredit Biden.

[bluewater]

2. Since when is the RCP POLLS TRACKER anti-Biden? Don't shoot the messenger.

So posting the results of the RCPPolls Tracker is now BASHING Biden?

Please.

Just, Please.

[Hortensis]

33. Bluewater, note that Sanders' support has NOT gone up, even in the

Monmouth poll.

And don't you think it's strange that Biden's support has supposedly plummeted almost 20 points on Monmouth's polling without anything happening to explain it?

[treestar]

38. Your OP titles give away

your hopes that Biden's support will decrease.

[still_one]

4. Yup. It gets quite tiresome. Same old, same old

[bluewater]

7. The complaints about polls less favorable to Joe? Yes, those are tiresome.

[Thekaspervote]

12. I don't see anyone complaining about polls that are less than favorable to Joe.

Those that support him knew the polls would fluctuate.. big deal

[still_one]

21. Exactly

[Thekaspervote]

8. Agree! If there were other posts, or + posts, or just comments in other areas of interest

Something other than posts with Biden’s demise. Subtle ... or not so subtle.

Not to mention the number of times the same posts and comments were repeated.

[RhodeIslandOne]

3. This is not good news for Warren.

Honestly.

[bluewater]

5. It depends how much more support Biden loses and to whom.

It certainly is interesting.

Polls have said that Biden supporters second choice was Bernie Sanders, perhaps that was accurate.

[True Dough]

9. I think one factor for down the road

Is that when either Warren or Sanders leave the race, they're likely to endorse each other. If/when Warren picks up most of Bernie's supporters (or vice-versa), that would be a huge push. Likely more than enough to put one of those two candidates over the top, if they're not already by then.

[Thekaspervote]

14. No, that is not the case at all

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

More at the link

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

[RhodeIslandOne]

10. That doesn't make much sense to me

I don't know how you go from Biden to Bernie. Sounds like people only interested in name recognition.

[bluewater]

13. Bingo. It's probably name recognition at this point.

[Thekaspervote]

31. Oh stop with the name recognition thing. Sanders, warren and Harris are all very well known

With big name recognition

[Otto Lidenbrock]

17. Maybe they think only Bernie is 'electable' on a progressive agenda

Whereas Biden has that moderate lane all to himself

[Thekaspervote]

18. See post #14 above, and the link below

“Warren and sanders voters have astonishingly little in common.”

More at the link

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548

[Uncle Joe]

6. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread bluewater.

[bluewater]

11. Well, I am jealous, but good luck to your candidate!

The polls are what the polls are.

[Uncle Joe]

15. It's still quite early in the race, I believe the dynamics to be fluid.

Good luck to your candidate as well.

Peace to you bluewater.

[Vegas Roller]

16. ...

omg! OMG!! OMG !!! OMG!!!! OMG!!!!!

(Some might need smelling salt)

[bluewater]

19. omg!

[Thekaspervote]

20. i hope you will keep your smelling salts handy

[Doodley]

22. Take out the outlier Monmouth poll and Biden is 10.4% ahead of Sanders.

[Thekaspervote]

23. Yes, that is correct.. thx for point that out!

[bluewater]

24. Sorry, RCP Polls does not cherry-pick like that.

The polls are what the polls are.



But no worries, more polls come out almost every day. No need to cherry-pick polls to bolster a candidate.

[Doodley]

25. The OP has already said what the RCP average is.

[Thekaspervote]

29. But that's common sense.. oh I forgot ...blindly get in line and don't think for yourself

Especially when it’s not something one wants to hear

[ThreeDimensional]

26. So, we trust polls again?

I know 2016 was, like, 20 years ago in internet years, but for sure y'all haven't forgotten who the polls predicted would win?

I say ignore the polls, put your head down, and work for your candidate.

[Hortensis]

27. LA Times article on this: Biden, Sanders and Warren are tied

for the lead in one poll. Biden’s on top in another.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-26/poll-biden-sanders-warren-tied-democratic-2020-primary

[bluewater]

28. That's why 538 suggests going with an AVERAGE of the major polls.

That helps to minimize systematic error and smooths out the noise a bit in the polling results.

Hence, looking at the RCP Polls Tracker of average results for the candidates.

[Thekaspervote]

30. Yawn!!

[bluewater]

35. Thanks!

bumpitty bump!

[LakeArenal]

32. You've been searching for your "sign"

Dedicated may be one term.

But Joe remains in the lead consistently.

[Thekaspervote]

34. go Joe go!! We've got your back

[Indykatie]

36. That 8.1% Spread Includes the Monmouth Poll Which is an Obvious Outlier

Monmouth had Biden Trailing Sanders by 1. Biden has never trailed in any poll that I m aware of.
The 3 newest polls at RCP have Biden's lead ranging from 7 to 13 points. But hey, you obviously have an anti-Biden bias so carry on.

[Thekaspervote]

37. This!

[highplainsdem]

39. OMG, Sanders drops to 10.7% behind Biden!!!

And the only reason it's that close is the outlier Monmouth poll which is looking worse with every new poll that comes out.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html